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Continued Winter Banter.


Ericjcrash

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My forecast has done very well. We are above normal in temps and there was an extreme luck storm that threaded the needle with perfect timing. January will be above normal in temps. As for February, more of the same, above normal month, there will be a transient cold shot week 2 followed by a big warmup again. Think roller coaster, no sustained arctic outbreaks. Also, minus another luck storm, snowfall will be below normal for February. El Ninos make winters so easy to forecast. It's a beautiful, wonderful thing

Give me an exact repeat of January and you can gloat about your "good forecast" all summer. Sincerely, someone who believes you have a say in the weather.
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My forecast has done very well. We are above normal in temps and there was an extreme luck storm that threaded the needle with perfect timing. January will be above normal in temps. As for February, more of the same, above normal month, there will be a transient cold shot week 2 followed by a big warmup again. Think roller coaster, no sustained arctic outbreaks. Also, minus another luck storm, snowfall will be below normal for February. El Ninos make winters so easy to forecast. It's a beautiful, wonderful thing

 

 

Do you really believe this ? 

 

You said No pattern change an no snow 

 

KNYC is + 1.6  AN for the month . There was 1 day of + 18 and another +15 . Those are positives for the month 

 

KNYC  received 27 inches of snow in  JAN . 

ssm_swe.2016012919.3.800.450._14728.1178

 

56abbb757fec6_ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anomJA

 

 

 

56abbb6e170c6_ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anomde

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My forecast has done very well. We are above normal in temps and there was an extreme luck storm that threaded the needle with perfect timing. January will be above normal in temps. As for February, more of the same, above normal month, there will be a transient cold shot week 2 followed by a big warmup again. Think roller coaster, no sustained arctic outbreaks. Also, minus another luck storm, snowfall will be below normal for February. El Ninos make winters so easy to forecast. It's a beautiful, wonderful thing

 

2 weeks is transient ? The EPS show it . 

So  does the GEFS 

gfs-ens_z500a5d_nhem_6.png

 

gfs-ens_z500a5d_nhem_12.png

 

What is sustained 3 weeks ? 

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My forecast has done very well. We are above normal in temps and there was an extreme luck storm that threaded the needle with perfect timing. January will be above normal in temps. As for February, more of the same, above normal month, there will be a transient cold shot week 2 followed by a big warmup again. Think roller coaster, no sustained arctic outbreaks. Also, minus another luck storm, snowfall will be below normal for February. El Ninos make winters so easy to forecast. It's a beautiful, wonderful thing

Extreme luck ? We didn't thread the needle. The teleconnectors were in place for a major snowstorm and it occurred. You posted that the jet was too progressive for any snowfall in January and said we most likely will have to wait until February for snow. Now with the long range looking favorable again for a sustained +PNA/-EPO you're calling it a transient change. The weeklies disagree with your warmup as well going into week 4. It's a beautiful wonderful thing that your snowfall forecast for Jan busted hard.

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From the looks of those maps it would not surprise me if we get another major to historic snow event sometime in February. I wonder what his excuse will be then. :whistle:

It's going to be very difficult to get another major event if the AO stays positive but small to moderate events are on the table.

However a strong STJ will add more juice to any system so I could see a MECS if things align perfectly even in a neutral/positive AO regime.

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Day length reached 10 hours today.

The snow is already down to piles in Long Beach. That's just crazy. For the amount of snow that fell, that has to be a record for how fast it melted.

Yeah, I've never seen such a substantial amount of snow melt so quickly. Nearly 20" to mainly piles in less than a week. I'm glad, I hate snowpacks.

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The snow is already down to piles in Long Beach. That's just crazy. For the amount of snow that fell, that has to be a record for how fast it melted.

Really!!!??? Not in wantagh at all. I still have wall to wall snow cover and a good amount!! By the way I found a 1" sleet layer so the south shore did change over for a bit. Still wound up with a solid 25"

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It's going to be very difficult to get another major event if the AO stays positive but small to moderate events are on the table.

However a strong STJ will add more juice to any system so I could see a MECS if things align perfectly even in a neutral/positive AO regime.

I want a Becs.

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My forecast has done very well. We are above normal in temps and there was an extreme luck storm that threaded the needle with perfect timing. January will be above normal in temps. As for February, more of the same, above normal month, there will be a transient cold shot week 2 followed by a big warmup again. Think roller coaster, no sustained arctic outbreaks. Also, minus another luck storm, snowfall will be below normal for February. El Ninos make winters so easy to forecast. It's a beautiful, wonderful thing

 

Well as you say godspeed .

 

Anthony Masiello ‏@antmasiello 40m40 minutes ago

The EPS today is full on winter part 2. Enjoy the warmup. #rockinFeb

 

Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx 31m31 minutes ago

@antmasiello Impressive look for sure

 

Severe Weather Blog ‏@blizzardof96 28m28 minutes ago

@RaleighWx @antmasiello Extremely impressive. Anticyclonic wavebreaking into AK raising heights across the pole. Then PNA pops.

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I'd love to hear what you'd consider a BECS for our region?

I can't speak for snow but personally I'd go with sonething along the lines of the Blizzard of 1888. Widespread 40-50 inches in the HV and three feet in the city. That's a BECS IMO.

And please don't bring up the asinine 21 inch total in KNYC. That was the classic worst measurement of all time. Even the neanderthal zookeeper couldn't have F'd up that bad.

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I can't speak for snow but personally I'd go with sonething along the lines of the Blizzard of 1888. Widespread 40-50 inches in the HV and three feet in the city. That's a BECS IMO.

And please don't bring up the asinine 21 inch total in KNYC. That was the classic worst measurement of all time. Even the neanderthal zookeeper couldn't have F'd up that bad.

some stories about the blizzard...I think it was under measured also...Some of the pictures show much more snow than any other storm on record...2.10" of precip is also low...

1888 from the NY Tribune...

http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/

from the NY Sun...

http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-2/

http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-3/

1888 from the Brooklyn Eagle...

http://fultonhistory...cale - 0455.pdf

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some stories about the blizzard...I think it was under measured also...Some of the pictures show much more snow than any other storm on record...2.10" of precip is also low...

1888 from the NY Tribune...

http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/

from the NY Sun...

http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-2/

http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-3/

1888 from the Brooklyn Eagle...

http://fultonhistory...cale - 0455.pdf

Amazing input as always uncle. Thanks.

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I can't speak for snow but personally I'd go with sonething along the lines of the Blizzard of 1888. Widespread 40-50 inches in the HV and three feet in the city. That's a BECS IMO.

And please don't bring up the asinine 21 inch total in KNYC. That was the classic worst measurement of all time. Even the neanderthal zookeeper couldn't have F'd up that bad.

An event like that seems fairly unlikely. Better chance of back to back events like the midatlantic in 2010. Something like that could give many a 3 foot or greater snowpack
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2 weeks is transient ? The EPS show it . 

So  does the GEFS 

gfs-ens_z500a5d_nhem_6.png

 

gfs-ens_z500a5d_nhem_12.png

 

What is sustained 3 weeks ? 

 

2 weeks is transient ? The EPS show it . 

So  does the GEFS 

gfs-ens_z500a5d_nhem_6.png

 

gfs-ens_z500a5d_nhem_12.png

 

What is sustained 3 weeks ? 

 

2 weeks is transient ? The EPS show it . 

So  does the GEFS 

gfs-ens_z500a5d_nhem_6.png

 

gfs-ens_z500a5d_nhem_12.png

 

What is sustained 3 weeks ? 

Well, I guess in terms of spring being not far off by that time, then yeah, 2 weeks would be transient, but then, so are the seasons....2 weeks of cold will not feel all that transient in fact, if that were to verify, most people would consider that quite sustained...

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some stories about the blizzard...I think it was under measured also...Some of the pictures show much more snow than any other storm on record...2.10" of precip is also low...

1888 from the NY Tribune...

http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/

from the NY Sun...

http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-2/

http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-3/

1888 from the Brooklyn Eagle...

http://fultonhistory...cale - 0455.pdf

 

some stories about the blizzard...I think it was under measured also...Some of the pictures show much more snow than any other storm on record...2.10" of precip is also low...

1888 from the NY Tribune...

http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/

from the NY Sun...

http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-2/

http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-3/

1888 from the Brooklyn Eagle...

http://fultonhistory...cale - 0455.pdf

 

some stories about the blizzard...I think it was under measured also...Some of the pictures show much more snow than any other storm on record...2.10" of precip is also low...

1888 from the NY Tribune...

http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/

from the NY Sun...

http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-2/

http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-3/

1888 from the Brooklyn Eagle...

http://fultonhistory...cale - 0455.pdf

Back in my ad agency days I worked with a dude whose great grandfather went out in that storm and was never seen again...

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