Continued Winter Banter.

[Brooklyndude]

Pack taking a beating

winters over?

[Morris]

The current torch is so much more enjoyable after we're already AN with snow.

[Rjay]

winters over?

It's January 27th

[Brooklyndude]

It's January 27th

Hello?? Was kidding

[Rjay]

Hello?? Was kidding

Hard to tell nowadays. People cancel winter all the time lol.

[dmillz25]

Winter cancel

[Brooklyndude]

Winter cancel

uh oh!!!  too much of a lull that what happens!

[bluewave]

Surfers know some of the best waves of the year are often associated with winter storms.

 

[donsutherland1]

With what appears likely to be a minor or perhaps moderate stratospheric warming event in coming days, rumors of a sudden or major stratospheric warming may well ripple across Social Media and the Blogosphere. Such speculation should be taken with a large dose of caution, as it would be disconnected from the actual guidance. Data from the FU-Berlin site from the latest ECMWF guidance is below:

 

 

The top chart shows stratospheric temperatures (°C) forecast at 120 hours, the forecast peak of the upcoming warming event. The data shows that the peak warming is limited largely to the top 5 mb of the atmosphere. Subsequent frames show a gradual cooling without a downward propagation of the warming that one typically witnesses during a significant or major warming event.

 

The second chart shows the 10 mb and 30 mb temperatures relative to the 30-year mean. They briefly bump somewhat above the 30-year norm before cooling. For major warming events, one would expect to see both temperatures reach or exceed -30°C.

 

The third chart shows the zonal wind. Neither the 10 mb nor 30 mb wind ever reverses direction. They don’t come close. Reversals are characteristic of significant stratospheric warming events.

 

All said, at present the guidance shows a modest and short-lived warming that does not propagate downward. While there is still some possibility that the guidance could be incorrect as a five day timeframe pushes the limits of reliable stratospheric forecasting, the guidance is now moving close to a reliable forecast horizon. As a result, the probability of a large correction in the guidance toward a significant or major stratospheric warming event in the near-term is falling.

 

For now, the guidance suggests that a minor or perhaps moderate non-propagating stratospheric warming event is imminent. 

[IsentropicLift]

Snow pack taking a beating here. All elevated surfaces are bare and the ground is down to about 50% of what it was Sunday morning.

[Stormlover74]

Snow pack taking a beating here. All elevated surfaces are bare and the ground is down to about 50% of what it was Sunday morning.

Similar to PDII when we had a 2 day warm up a few days after. The next couple days should see less melting with seasonal temps and cold nights. Once we get to the weekend though the meltdown will be on again

[JerseyWx]

Nice write up Don.

I agree with the snowpack taking a beating. I'd say on average surfaces, like concrete, I have about 4-5". I don't mind though, I was never a snowpack guy. It's just a nuisance IMO that takes up room on the property.

[tim]

With what appears likely to be a minor or perhaps moderate stratospheric warming event in coming days, rumors of a sudden or major stratospheric warming may well ripple across Social Media and the Blogosphere. Such speculation should be taken with a large dose of caution, as it would be disconnected from the actual guidance. Data from the FU-Berlin site from the latest ECMWF guidance is below:

 

 

The top chart shows stratospheric temperatures (°C) forecast at 120 hours, the forecast peak of the upcoming warming event. The data shows that the peak warming is limited largely to the top 5 mb of the atmosphere. Subsequent frames show a gradual cooling without a downward propagation of the warming that one typically witnesses during a significant or major warming event.

 

The second chart shows the 10 mb and 30 mb temperatures relative to the 30-year mean. They briefly bump somewhat above the 30-year norm before cooling. For major warming events, one would expect to see both temperatures reach or exceed -30°C.

 

The third chart shows the zonal wind. Neither the 10 mb nor 30 mb wind ever reverses direction. They don’t come close. Reversals are characteristic of significant stratospheric warming events.

 

All said, at present the guidance shows a modest and short-lived warming that does not propagate downward. While there is still some possibility that the guidance could be incorrect as a five day timeframe pushes the limits of reliable stratospheric forecasting, the guidance is now moving close to a reliable forecast horizon. As a result, the probability of a large correction in the guidance toward a significant or major stratospheric warming event in the near-term is falling.

 

For now, the guidance suggests that a minor or perhaps moderate non-propagating stratospheric warming event is imminent. 

..thanks don..always like to hear your analysis..this will certainly temper my expectations on a SSW.. unlike

JB who is pretty confident it will/is happening.

[Stormlover74]

Nice write up Don.

I agree with the snowpack taking a beating. I'd say on average surfaces, like concrete, I have about 4-5". I don't mind though, I was never a snowpack guy. It's just a nuisance IMO that takes up room on the property.

Yep and even with the snowpack going down the side roads are still a mess around here

[JerseyWx]

Yep and even with the snowpack going down the side roads are still a mess around here

Wow, that's nuts. Our streets were great a couple days after the storm.

[WeatherFeen2000]

One thing I really don't get. Why do people dig their cars and throw the snow back on the street? Are you like that dumb?

[Stormlover74]

One thing I really don't get. Why do people dig their cars and throw the snow back on the street? Are you like that dumb?

Its a combination of people snowblowing their driveways and throwing snow into the street or not moving their cars off the streett so they can plow right to the curb. Of course its not like in the city where people have no choice but to leave their cars on the street

[WeatherFeen2000]

Its a combination of people snowblowing their driveways and throwing snow into the street or not moving their cars off the streett so they can plow right to the curb. Of course its not like in the city where people have no choice but to leave their cars on the street

honestly they can throw the snow between their car and sidewalk but they're too dumb to do that! Then they complain the streets don't get plowed? Every time it snows streets get plowed, people just make it worse by doing exactly that

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[WaPo]

I've always tried to either fit all three cars in the two car driveway, or if I'm coming home from work late, parking on the lawn before a snowstorm. The street gets properly plowed and I'm shoveling for at most 10 minutes.

[forkyfork]

this needs to melt so i can go back to weaving around slow drivers in suv's

[Rjay]

this needs to melt so i can go back to weaving around slow drivers in suv's

Yep

[MJO812]

One thing I really don't get. Why do people dig their cars and throw the snow back on the street? Are you like that dumb?

There is no where to put it.I almost got a ticket for that .

[Stormlover74]

Ahh a weenies' worst nightmare

 

http://paramus.dailyvoice.com/neighbors/who-needs-a-shovel-paramus-family-melts-snowfall-away/620538/#.VqjQmafyLeO.facebook

 

The snow might have climbed over two feet in some parts of Bergen and Passaic counties, but the heated driveway and walkway outside the Parikh house melted an inch and a half an hour.

When it was done, there was nothing left to shovel.

[stlirish]

Cross polar flow setting up? Keep an eye on the 2nd week of Feb for a potential Arctic outbreak

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[NorthShoreWx]

Ahh a weenies' worst nightmare

 

http://paramus.dailyvoice.com/neighbors/who-needs-a-shovel-paramus-family-melts-snowfall-away/620538/#.VqjQmafyLeO.facebook

 

The snow might have climbed over two feet in some parts of Bergen and Passaic counties, but the heated driveway and walkway outside the Parikh house melted an inch and a half an hour.

When it was done, there was nothing left to shovel.

 

So assuming its cold after a snowstorm (unlike now) who gets all the ice from the melt-water from his driveway?

[PB GFI]

The coldest 10 days of winter will be found between the 5th - 20th 

Agree this will be direct Arctic air . 

Had there been snow cover under this air , it would have ended up even colder . 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

So assuming its cold after a snowstorm (unlike now) who gets all the ice from the melt-water from his driveway?

Well it's really no different than having a warm-up with melting and then refreezing

[NorthShoreWx]

Well it's really no different than having a warm-up with melting and then refreezing

 

Its very different if the driveway is melting while the air temperature is below freezing.  Think of roof damming...the melt water doesn't flow far before freezing.

[BxEngine]

Its recycled. Its in the article.

[NorthShoreWx]

Its recycled. Its in the article.

 

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