uncle W Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 NYC's average temp is 33.3 as of yesterday...it probably will end up 34.0 or better...January 1983 averaged 34.5 in NYC...It was 59 degrees on February 3rd, 1983...the January thaw is here and hopefully the second half produces... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Inverted trough Friday? What model is showing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 What model is showing it? Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Gfs Inverted troughs are extremely difficult to predict and 9 times out of 10 they trend north which usually means they effect upstate NY and New England. That's even if there is one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Inverted troughs are extremely difficult to predict and 9 times out of 10 they trend north which usually means they effect upstate NY and New England. That's even if there is one.Agreed, they always fail. Good luck getting a norlun trough over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I see no signs at all in the modeling that prolonged arctic cold locks in for February. It's most likely a roller coaster month with transient warm ups and cool downs. I don't see persistent Arctic cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I see no signs at all in the modeling that prolonged arctic cold locks in for February. It's most likely a roller coaster month with transient warm ups and cool downs. I don't see persistent Arctic cold Several pro mets disagree with you, FWIW. Guess we'll see when the time comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I see no signs at all in the modeling that prolonged arctic cold locks in for February. It's most likely a roller coaster month with transient warm ups and cool downs. I don't see persistent Arctic cold You also didn't see a major snowstorm happening in january due to rhe "raging super niño". We know how that turned out. It's hard to bet against a pattern when the AO drops to -5 The pattern changes after the first week of February. Models show an -EPO and +PNA at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Several pro mets disagree with you, FWIW. Guess we'll see when the time comes.Which pro mets are calling for weeks of arctic cold in February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Which pro mets are calling for weeks of arctic cold in February? Calling for cold enough weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Yeah, a more realistic average should be around 38" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Which pro mets are calling for weeks of arctic cold in February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 ...more like, "Ma, the meatloaf!" Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Wow. Bye pv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I see no signs at all in the modeling that prolonged arctic cold locks in for February. It's most likely a roller coaster month with transient warm ups and cool downs. I don't see persistent Arctic cold Your call for below normal snowfall looks spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Your call for below normal snowfall looks spot on. For Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I wouldn't be surprised to see another huge storm in February. Patterns like to repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Bye pv Just double checking. We don't want that in Alaska, correct? As depicted wouldn't that pump heights east of the Rockies? ...and freeze Europe? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Wait a min...or am I reading that incorrectly? Would that translate to a -EPO/-ao/west based -nao? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Bye pv https://twitter.com/tcrawf_nh/status/692069233740615681 https://twitter.com/tcrawf_nh/status/692039723318132737 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Classic. Very nice job on your forecast by the way. February is going to have plenty of fun and games. This is not a snow pack winter as evidenced by how fast the current snow is melting. So if we get a couple cutters and inland bombs that's just fine because I think we have at least three more 6+ storms for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Those are stratospheric heights not tropospheric heights. Having the pv not on our side of the globe promotes -epo and -ao. This would be called a displacement and not a split, although would likely still be beneficial to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Ahh ok. Glad I second guessed myself. Sounds like the same -EPO PB has been forecasting . Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Meteorologist from the weather channel committed suicide. RIP http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/weather-channel-meteorologist-death-ruled-suicide-article-1.2510187 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Classic. Very nice job on your forecast by the way. February is going to have plenty of fun and games. This is not a snow pack winter as evidenced by how fast the current snow is melting. So if we get a couple cutters and inland bombs that's just fine because I think we have at least three more 6+ storms for the coast Hey man , Thank you . It looks like a lot of the pack will be gone before it snows again . ( going faster than I orig thought ) The warm up although probably only 5 days may mean business . However the look in FEB overall at least from this distance looks good . 1st Jan 31 - Feb 4 look to be about plus 4 to me .( AG and I agree- I hope ) . Then the period could begin to take shape . Feb 5 - 20 look BN to me . I am not concerned with by how much but I am much more intrigued with the set up once again at 500 . Many are in love with the actual departures and N is not a bad thing but what`s more important to me is what we look at 500mb . The period should advertise a -EPO/+PNA/-AO regime again . There will be a trough in the means in the SE during the period and all it will take is another well timed vortex during a PNA spike and we are in the game. This year we have the potential to have more than just 1 big time event . Our best chances like to come at the back end of patterns so sometimes one just has to be patient . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Meteorologist from the weather channel committed suicide. RIP http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/weather-channel-meteorologist-death-ruled-suicide-article-1.2510187 Yeah I saw that earlier. Poor guy. I wonder what drove him to literally drive himself in to a wall. Terrible way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Hey man , Thank you . It looks like a lot of the pack will be gone before it snows again . ( going faster than I orig thought ) The warm up although probably only 5 days may mean business . However the look in FEB overall at least from this distance looks good . 1st Jan 31 - Feb 4 look to be about plus 4 to me .( AG and I agree- I hope ) . Then the period could begin to take shape . Feb 5 - 20 look BN to me . I am not concerned with by how much but I am much more intrigued with the set up once again at 500 . Many are in love with the actual departures and N is not a bad thing but what`s more important to me is what we look at 500mb . The period should advertise a -EPO/+PNA/-AO regime again . There will be a trough in the means in the SE during the period and all it will take is another well timed vortex during a PNA spike and we are in the game. This year we have the potential to have more than just 1 big time event . Our best chances like to come at the back end of patterns so sometimes one just has to be patient . Climo favors mid February for us too. Throw slightly below temps and all that energy in the southern get and things will go boom again That's right I'm calling it right now we have at least one more major event in the pipeline!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Climo favors mid February for us too. Throw slightly below temps and all that energy in the southern get and things will go boom again That's right I'm calling it right now we have at least one more major event in the pipeline!!! Sounds good! What would you call major in our new post 2000 climate? 12+? -Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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