Continued Winter Banter.

[uncle W]

here is a list of the 14 strongest la nina winters with an oni -0.9 or lower...reds are above average temperatures and below average snowfall...blue is colder than average with above average snowfall...blacks are near average...

la nina winters...DJF ONI...A.T....min....30 day cold...snowfall...biggest snowfalls...

1973-74..............-1.7.......35.5.....6..........32.3..........23.5"..........6.0" 4.3"

1988-89..............-1.6.......35.9.....5..........32.4............8.1"..........5.0"

1999-00..............-1.6.......36.2.....3..........26.2..........16.3"..........5.5"

1975-76..............-1.5.......34.4....-1..........27.1..........17.3"..........4.2" 4.0"

2007-08..............-1.4.......36.4...10..........35.7..........11.9"..........6.0"

1949-50..............-1.4.......37.5.....6..........31.6..........13.8"..........3.8"

1998-99..............-1.4.......38.7.....9..........31.3..........12.7"..........4.5"

1970-71..............-1.3.......32.1.....4..........24.2..........15.5"..........6.4"

1995-96..............-0.9.......32.3.....5..........27.7..........75.6"..........20.2" 10.7" 7.5" 4.6" 4.6" 4.1"

2010-11..............-0.9.......32.7.....6..........28.1..........61.9"..........20.0" 19.0" 9.1" 5.0"

1955-56..............-0.9.......32.7.....5..........27.6..........33.5"..........11.6" 6.5" 4.2"

1984-85..............-0.9.......36.4....-2..........27.5..........24.1"..........5.7" 4.8" 4.3" 4.1"

[Jason WX]

While the sample size is small, developing La Ninas with a strong +PDO still hanging

on into June were weak with a +PDO. 

 

The only three years since 1950 were 2005-2006...1995-1996...1983-1984.

 

So it will be interesting to see if the models are correct about the strong +PDO

signature hanging on into the summer.

 

NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season5.png

all that heat in the ATL

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The seasonal average of 25" was probably never true.

The 30 year average from January 1981- December 2010 is actually 25.9 inches. Some places post it as 25.1 or 25.3 but NOAA changed that in 2014 when someone pointed out their math was incorrect. It was me, no applause please.

Once the 1980's which is the lowest snowfall decade ever in NYC HISTORY, are kicked out of the equation and the new 30 year average is calculated in January 2021 the new average will very likely be above 30 inches. If Central Park had no more snow from now through December 2020 the 30 year average would be 26.2. God forbid that happens and I just put a hex on the whole thing.

The average yearly snowfall in NYC since records have been kept in 1869 is 28.8 inches. That's a running total through last month this month may jack that up to 28.9 or 29.0.

[CIK62]

CPC does not like the next 14 days for any cold around here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

 

January will be the 7th. consecutive month of above normal temps. here---including 3 new warmest evers and a close 2nd.    Feb looks like a likely subject for the 8th. straight a.b. month.    March I feel has a chance to be close, but CFSv2 has not indicated 'a below normal month to be' since June and it has been correct, as it tracked the effects of an overpowering El Nino.  It still says the next 8 months will all be above normal.

In a week or so we will first need to compensate for the seasonal rise in temps. and then some to have any snow.   The blizzard probably was eked out because we were at the bottom of the temperature curve anyway.

At any rate the next 7 days look to average about +7.    

[weatherpruf]

Feb 2013 was a ku but was only accompanied by normal snowfall. 08-09 was also just slightly above normal snowfall, and the March storm was a cat 1 ku. Jan 2000 featured a ku which was much worse in the mid Atlantic but still gave us 4-8 inches but the area had much below normal snowfall that year. If you, however, only looked at say >15in storms for NYC you'd be hard pressed to find below average or average snow years, most would be above normal.

Thanks I'm only interested in the metro area, and I consider the east end of LI and northern counties to not really be in the metro area,  and there other statistical areas, such as the Edison metro area, but again there are overlaps....some of the storms you mentioned like Jan 2000 and March 09 were 3-5 inch deals here, so I'm tossing them. You could stretch the idea of the metro area all the way to the Poconos and some people do, not me. I'd say New Brunswick NJ to the west, up to Bergen Co to the north, Northern Monmouth Co, all five counties of NYC, and about to Central LI. Not familiar enough with CT but parts of it also. SI is actually part of NJ they just won't admit it. There's a reason they were connected to NJ before Brooklyn....this is all my personal opinion so don't take it for Gospel...

[weatherpruf]

CPC does not like the next 14 days for any cold around here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

 

January will be the 7th. consecutive month of above normal temps. here---including 3 new warmest evers and a close 2nd.    Feb looks like a likely subject for the 8th. straight a.b. month.    March I feel has a chance to be close, but CFSv2 has not indicated 'a below normal month to be' since June and it has been correct, as it tracked the effects of an overpowering El Nino.  It still says the next 8 months will all be above normal.

In a week or so we will first need to compensate for the seasonal rise in temps. and then some to have any snow.   The blizzard probably was eked out because we were at the bottom of the temperature curve anyway.

At any rate the next 7 days look to average about +7.    

It's gonna be a warm year, hope it isn't warmer than last, but I don't think the blizzard was eked out....semantics I know, but I think the effects of El Nino, warm Atlantic, and climate change all had something to do with it....enhanced moisture and so on. There's  a theory 

that we might see less snow overall as a result of climate change but what storms we get would be extreme....could be.

[NorthShoreWx]

22 biggest snowfalls of the past 21 winters at Smithtown, NY (from 1995-96 through this winter):

 

Feb 8-9, 2013     27.0

Jan 7-9,1996      22.3

Feb 16-18, 2003   18.8

Jan 23-24, 2016   17.5

Dec 19-20, 2009   17.0

Jan 11-12, 2011   15.8

Dec 5-6,2003      15.5

Jan 26-27, 2015   15.0

Jan 26-27, 2011   14.5

Feb 10, 2010      14.5

Jan 22-23, 2005   14.4

Feb 13-14, 2014   13.5

Jan 27-28, 2004   13.5

Feb 11-12, 2006   13.3

Mar 05-07, 2001   12.2

Dec 26-27, 2010   12.0

Feb 25-26, 2010   12.0

Apr 9-10, 1996    12.0

Mar 1-2, 2009     11.5

Dec 19-21, 1995   11.3

Dec 30, 2000      11.0

Mar 14-15, 1999    9.8

[weatherpruf]

 

22 biggest snowfalls of the past 21 winters at Smithtown, NY (from 1995-96 through this winter):

 

Feb 8-9, 2013     27.0

Jan 7-9,1996      22.3

Feb 16-18, 2003   18.8

Jan 23-24, 2016   17.5

Dec 19-20, 2009   17.0

Jan 11-12, 2011   15.8

Dec 5-6,2003      15.5

Jan 26-27, 2015   15.0

Jan 26-27, 2011   14.5

Feb 10, 2010      14.5

Jan 22-23, 2005   14.4

Feb 13-14, 2014   13.5

Jan 27-28, 2004   13.5

Feb 11-12, 2006   13.3

Mar 05-07, 2001   12.2

Dec 26-27, 2010   12.0

Feb 25-26, 2010   12.0

Apr 9-10, 1996    12.0

Mar 1-2, 2009     11.5

Dec 19-21, 1995   11.3

Dec 30, 2000      11.0

Mar 14-15, 1999    9.8

 

Darn good run, some were better out our way, but I think you have done better than us in shaky set ups like March 01 ( nothing but light sleet ), 09, 99 ( got nothing outta that one ) but a little less when we get pounded.

[Jason215]

That should be 12/03. It was Friday and Saturday 2 part storm

You're right, I remember that storm.. 12/5-6/2003. NYC/LI were under a blizzard warning. So many blizzards, it's getting hard to keep track of! I think the city ended up with around 13 or 14 inches.

[NorthShoreWx]

Darn good run, some were better out our way, but I think you have done better than us in shaky set ups like March 01 ( nothing but light sleet ), 09, 99 ( got nothing outta that one ) but a little less when we get pounded.

 

It has definitely been a good run.  I imagine we got a lot less 12/30/2000, 2/11/2006, 2/26/2010 and 12/26/2010 and probably this past weekend (maybe a few others, but these ones seem obvious to me).  

 

The ones I'd imagine we did significantly better in were 4/1996, 3/2001, 12/2009, 2/2013 and 1/2015.

 

The rest may have been better or worse, but probably not extremely different.

 

The only ones where we caught a lot of the best regional banding (i.e., close to jackpot) were April 1996, January 2004, and February 2013.  April 1996 was more of a beast than most people realize...in a slightly colder environment that would have easily been a 20 incher.  During the all of the others the best banding was somewhere else (some east, some west).

[uncle W]

compared with Central Park...

Feb 8-9, 2013     27.0.....11.4"

Jan 7-9,1996      22.3.....20.2"

Feb 16-18, 2003   18.8.....19.8"

Jan 23-24, 2016   17.5.....26.8"

Dec 19-20, 2009   17.0.....10.7"

Jan 11-12, 2011   15.8......9.1"

Dec 5-6,2003      15.5.....14.0"

Jan 26-27, 2015   15.0......9.8"

Jan 26-27, 2011   14.5.....19.0"

Feb 10, 2010      14.5.....10.0"

Jan 22-23, 2005   14.4.....13.8"

Feb 13-14, 2014   13.5.....12.5"

Jan 27-28, 2004   13.5.....10.4"

Feb 11-12, 2006   13.3.....26.9"

Mar 05-07, 2001   12.2......3.8"

Dec 26-27, 2010   12.0.....20.0"

Feb 25-26, 2010   12.0.....20.9"

Apr 9-10, 1996    12.0......0.7"

Mar 1-2, 2009     11.5......8.3"

Dec 19-21, 1995   11.3......7.9"

Dec 30, 2000      11.0.....12.0"

Mar 14-15, 1999    9.8......4.5"

[uncle W]

deepest snow depth for Central Park...

deepest snow cover...

26" Dec. 1947

24" Feb. 1961

23" Jan. 2011

22" Feb. 2006 est.

22" Jan. 2016

21" Feb. 2010

21" Feb. 1994

21" Mar. 1888

20" Jan. 1996 est.

20" Feb. 2003

20" Feb. 1926

20" Feb. 1899 est.

19" Feb. 1983

19" Mar. 2015

18" Feb. 1978

18" Feb. 2014

18" Dec. 1872

[NorthShoreWx]

 

compared with Central Park...

Feb 8-9, 2013     27.0.....11.4"

Jan 7-9,1996      22.3.....20.2"

Feb 16-18, 2003   18.8.....19.8"

Jan 23-24, 2016   17.5.....26.8"

Dec 19-20, 2009   17.0.....10.7"

Jan 11-12, 2011   15.8......9.1"

Dec 5-6,2003      15.5.....14.0"

Jan 26-27, 2015   15.0......9.8"

Jan 26-27, 2011   14.5.....19.0"

Feb 10, 2010      14.5.....10.0"

Jan 22-23, 2005   14.4.....13.8"

Feb 13-14, 2014   13.5.....12.5"

Jan 27-28, 2004   13.5.....10.4"

Feb 11-12, 2006   13.3.....26.9"

Mar 05-07, 2001   12.2......3.8"

Dec 26-27, 2010   12.0.....20.0"

Feb 25-26, 2010   12.0.....20.9"

Apr 9-10, 1996    12.0......0.7"

Mar 1-2, 2009     11.5......8.3"

Dec 19-21, 1995   11.3......7.9"

Dec 30, 2000      11.0.....12.0"

Mar 14-15, 1999    9.8......4.5"

 

Thanks Uncle.  Very different results in specific storms, but it tends to average out.  Individually, the average difference is 5.6 inches (i.e., the average of the absolute value of the individual storm differences), but for the entire set if you total and average all 22 storms the difference is only 1.45" per storm.

[Allsnow]

Doorman?

[MJO812]

Doorman?

Vanished in thin air

[Kaner587]

He nailed this pattern and storm he really deserves some kind of award!

[Ralph Wiggum]

He nailed this pattern and storm he really deserves some kind of award!

???

[Kaner587]

I guess it was a failed attempt at sarcasm??

Doorman had a terrible track Record last year also and to make matters worse he won't show his face and at least acknowledge his horrible forecast

[Ralph Wiggum]

I guess it was a failed attempt at sarcasm??

Doorman had a terrible track Record last year also and to make matters worse he won't show his face and at least acknowledge his horrible forecast

My bad, I thought u were being serious, lol. I assumed sarcasm at first but really wasn't sure, thanks for clarifying.

[CIK62]

Well it is not too early to start thinking about this winter season  (DJF) becoming the warmest ever. 

Target is 41.5 which is +6.0 above an average winter at CPK,  or +18surplus/3mos.

So far we have +13.3 for Dec. confirmed;

+2.0est. for Jan., so Feb. need only be about 18.0-15.3 or +2.7 for a new seasonal record to be set.

Look at this latest projection from CFSv2 which seems to be going in the wrong direction and comes with more than the usual amount of confidence:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20160126.201602.gif

 

This looks like +4 to +5 to me.  It will be wet too it seems to indicate, so we could get lucky with the snow---but already 2/3-4 is too warm and when it is below normal or normal,  say 2/6-11 it looks dry.

[mranger48]

Well it is not too early to start thinking about this winter season (DJF) becoming the warmest ever.

Target is 41.5 which is +6.0 above an average winter at CPK, or +18surplus/3mos.

So far we have +13.3 for Dec. confirmed;

+2.0est. for Jan., so Feb. need only be about 18.0-15.3 or +2.7 for a new seasonal record to be set.

Look at this latest projection from CFSv2 which seems to be going in the wrong direction and comes with more than the usual amount of confidence:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20160126.201602.gif

This looks like +4 to +5 to me. It will be wet too it seems to indicate, so we could get lucky with the snow---but already 2/3-4 is too warm and when it is below normal or normal, say 2/6-11 it looks dry.

Awaiting rebuttal from PB in 3, 2, 1....

Just curious, do you see the +PNA -EPO regime not happening after this transient warmup?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[PB GFI]

Awaiting rebuttal from PB in 3, 2, 1....

Just curious, do you see the +PNA -EPO regime not happening after this transient warmup?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

 

If I recall correctly he said we were looking at +6 in Jan and no snow for 75 days 

 

 

 

[Kaner587]

Looks dry 2/6 to 2/11? That is way out there dude, you've been making some pretty horrid attempts at forecasting the midrange. By the way, not saying it won't be but you come out you say it with such certainty. Go back and look at some of the mid range stuff you posted back in early January

[Kaner587]

"CFS Weeklies looking (W2-5) more and more like December >>> off the scale warmth over millions of square miles. A snowless, record warm winter DJF, and you can throw in M too is still very possible. W/O a SSWE the winter is as dead as the Stock Market and the economy is w/o another QE program. "

"Ouch!!! This hurts:

http://www.tropicalt...xpos=0&ypos=432

It hurts to be in love (again), when the only snowstorm you love turns out to be a 'fish storm' --- but dig that wasted cold air.

http://www.tropicalt...xpos=0&ypos=576"

"January to date is +1.8 or a surplus of(9*1.8) 16degs. According to the GFSx [much maligned] the next 8 days will average about +5 to +6 or about another 40-48deg. surplus. This would put us near (60/17) or about +4 by the morning of the 18th.

Goal: Stay below +5.3 for the whole month, so that Jan. can at least feel like the stolen Dec.!

http://www.nws.noaa....a=KJFK&sta=KLGA"

I dug them up and found them for you. January is going to end up a slightly above normal month, far off from your crazy warm and snowless predictions CIK62. I have no problem with people making warm and snowless forecasts but when you're wrong you should acknowledge it not come back in here, sing the same tune and kick the can along like you've been right all along. Rant over

[Brian5671]

CFS was horrid for January....90% of the country is below normal on 1/26

[donsutherland1]

Well it is not too early to start thinking about this winter season  (DJF) becoming the warmest ever. 

Target is 41.5 which is +6.0 above an average winter at CPK,  or +18surplus/3mos.

So far we have +13.3 for Dec. confirmed;

+2.0est. for Jan., so Feb. need only be about 18.0-15.3 or +2.7 for a new seasonal record to be set.

Look at this latest projection from CFSv2 which seems to be going in the wrong direction and comes with more than the usual amount of confidence:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20160126.201602.gif

 

This looks like +4 to +5 to me.  It will be wet too it seems to indicate, so we could get lucky with the snow---but already 2/3-4 is too warm and when it is below normal or normal,  say 2/6-11 it looks dry.

 

The CFSv2 might be overdone on the warmth. What could change the outcome would be variables such as El Niño climatology, the return of blocking, a prevalent PNA+, etc. I suspect NYC will not wind up some 5°-6° above normal as shown on the latest CFSv2 forecast, which is highly dependent on very warm Week 3 and 4 outcomes.

 

FWIW, the second half of January so far has seen a lot of cold anomalies in the eastern half of North America. They're not quite the sustained cold I had thought would occur but still notable against the first half of the month where those areas were warm and especially December.

 

 

I suspect something closer to February 1983's outcome with modest warm anomalies from around 35°N-40°N latitude and northward may be more likely than the CFSv2's current idea, especially if the extended range of the ensembles are added into the mix. There could be opportunities for some additional snowstorms, especially if blocking redevelops.

[NYCGreg]

Does it look promising for blocking to redevelop soon?

[PB GFI]

FEB 4 - 12

 

The pullback period that we had spoken about will be transient .

 

The CFS/6ZGEFS/ look very similar . The GEPS and EPS look even better . 

 

The cold returns and according to the EPS  so will  the storms.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

CFS .

 

Those maps with these anomalies .

 

Sweet if we can pull it just a bit W 

 

Canadian smells it .

 

[MJO812]

Inverted trough Friday?