bluewave Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 All it takes is one monster storm to wipe people out and look forward to spring. The Jamstec says that we'll be breaking out the shorts early in spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 The Jamstec says that we'll be breaking out the shorts early in spring. temp2.glob.MAM2016.1jan2016.gif In strong/super Ninos if you look at past climo for March, they are typically above normal (temps), as far as April and May, I dunno, I didn't look at those months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Good give us snow and then get the golf courses open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Im actually glad that storm for friday is trending in the wrong direction. I'm good with waiting till next week lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Post-storm depression has set in. Always happens to me...Right after a major storm. You spend 5-6 days straight checking model runs 4x a day. Highs, lows. Then the storm comes and you haven't slept more than 3 hours a night for 3 straight days. Storm ends and you're already tracking the next one....Thank god it isn't late March or I'd be hospitalized. I'm a sick pup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Post-storm depression has set in. Always happens to me...Right after a major storm. You spend 5-6 days straight checking model runs 4x a day. Highs, lows. Then the storm comes and you haven't slept more than 3 hours a night for 3 straight days. Storm ends and you're already tracking the next one....Thank god it isn't late March or I'd be hospitalized. I'm a sick pup Ha! Same here. Yesterday felt like when I was a kid, the day after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 The Jamstec says that we'll be breaking out the shorts early in spring. temp2.glob.MAM2016.1jan2016.gif Time for a LA NINA thread . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Im actually glad that storm for friday is trending in the wrong direction. I'm good with waiting till next week lol Probably a good number of people agree with you, but if i could script out DJF i'd never put more than a day or two between events (and none would be rain of course). Most could be penny and nickel stuff, but its nice to keep the pack fresh and white and flakes in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Easy for you guys to say. It feels like 1998 all over again for you and I. Screw it, its ovuh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Post-storm depression has set in. Always happens to me...Right after a major storm. You spend 5-6 days straight checking model runs 4x a day. Highs, lows. Then the storm comes and you haven't slept more than 3 hours a night for 3 straight days. Storm ends and you're already tracking the next one....Thank god it isn't late March or I'd be hospitalized. I'm a sick pup That's what made the last 2 winters exceptional. You got your snow and was able to hold it for a week or more until the next opportunity came. I have already lost 10" from my storm and it's January no less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Post-storm depression has set in. Always happens to me...Right after a major storm. You spend 5-6 days straight checking model runs 4x a day. Highs, lows. Then the storm comes and you haven't slept more than 3 hours a night for 3 straight days. Storm ends and you're already tracking the next one....Thank god it isn't late March or I'd be hospitalized. I'm a sick pup Yea I definitely second that! It's like you do not want it to ever stop snowing, but obviously it gets exhausting after a while. However, its all worth it since we got slammed.... Worse thing is when we track and track, then get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Time for LA NINA thread . All that warm water from the Tropical Atlantic north to off the East Coast may be signaling a more active Atlantic Hurricane season for ACE than the last few. I am curious to see how long the +PDO hangs on since the sig is still pretty strong on that chart that you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Time for LA NINA thread . Hurricane season will be a fun one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 summer will probably be very hot. 2010 comes to mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 summer will probably be very hot. 2010 comes to mind Hopefully active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 The Jamstec says that we'll be breaking out the shorts early in spring. temp2.glob.MAM2016.1jan2016.gif wow-there's literally no cold on that map-hope the first half of March is cold then we can torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 There is so little blue on that Jamstec output that its almost alarming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Awesome shot showing the tight gradient to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 These 20"+ events are all starting to blend together since there have been so many of them since 2000. In the past, we were lucky to see 1 or 2 events a decade with maxes of 20" or more. LI/SCT/SE NY/NNJ 20" max storms since 2000: 2/17/03 2/5-7/03 1/22-23/05 close at 19.5" max 2/11/06 12/19-12/20/09 2/26-27/10 12/26-27/10 1/11-1/12/11 1/26-1/27/11 2/8-2/9/13 1/26/15 1/23/16 Not sure if the 2/5-7/03 storm hit NYC, but it's interesting that the "Weekend Rule" applies to about 80% of the big ones that hit NYC on your list. I know a couple of 2011 storms prevented it from being a 100% phenomenon.. (Blizzard of 96, 83 also occurred on a weekend).. Since I haven't seen anyone bring it up recently, I thought I'd chime in here! -Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Looking at more pictures around Long Beach, I definitely think there was 24" if not more. I saw one picture where cars were just jumps in the snow, with windshield wipers sticking out. Don't think I've ever seen that before, maybe again Jan 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Awesome shot showing the tight gradient to the north. I-84 really did turn out to be the cutoff point. Amazing. The area is still clogged with snow around my house. My brother finally got done digging out his car an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Not sure if the 2/5-7/03 storm hit NYC, but it's interesting that the "Weekend Rule" applies to about 80% of the big ones that hit NYC on your list. I know a couple of 2011 storms prevented it from being a 100% phenomenon.. (Blizzard of 96, 83 also occurred on a weekend).. Since I haven't seen anyone bring it up recently, I thought I'd chime in here! -Jason That should be 12/03. It was Friday and Saturday 2 part storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Time for a LA NINA thread . With a +PDO. We have to watch and see if the atmosphere still behaves like an El Niño next winter. We all know about 95-96 turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 With a +PDO. We have to watch and see if the atmosphere still behaves like an El Niño next winter. We all know about 95-96 turned out.More than likely we go into a -PDO regime, even Joe Bastardi said he thinks the Pacific goes back to -PDO. Also, looking more and more likely we see a plunge into a moderate to strong La Niña starting in the spring. The Nina's that followed the super Ninos in the past have actually been quite strong, but not much of a sample size though so we have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Water still going strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 More than likely we go into a -PDO regime, even Joe Bastardi said he thinks the Pacific goes back to -PDO. Also, looking more and more likely we see a plunge into a moderate to strong La Niña starting in the spring. The Nina's that followed the super Ninos in the past have actually been quite strong, but not much of a sample size though so we have to see.Hopefully from here out to California gets a surplus of rain to store up before that happens. The last strong Nina to happen here gave Texas a record drought, and started CA towards drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 More than likely we go into a -PDO regime, even Joe Bastardi said he thinks the Pacific goes back to -PDO. Also, looking more and more likely we see a plunge into a moderate to strong La Niña starting in the spring. The Nina's that followed the super Ninos in the past have actually been quite strong, but not much of a sample size though so we have to see. That would really help ramp up the hurricane season although there might be a Nino lag. I'm thinking 2017 is when the Atlantic roars back to life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Wow lead story at 5:00 on cnn "New storms forecast as millions struggle to dig out. ". That line has been on screen for three minutes now. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 More than likely we go into a -PDO regime, even Joe Bastardi said he thinks the Pacific goes back to -PDO. Also, looking more and more likely we see a plunge into a moderate to strong La Niña starting in the spring. The Nina's that followed the super Ninos in the past have actually been quite strong, but not much of a sample size though so we have to see. 10-11 was a strong nina after the strong nino of 09-10. Lucky for us, we got that epic 30-35 day pattern in 10-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 While the sample size is small, developing La Ninas with a strong +PDO still hanging on into June were weak with a +PDO. The only three years since 1950 were 2005-2006...1995-1996...1983-1984. So it will be interesting to see if the models are correct about the strong +PDO signature hanging on into the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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