Ericjcrash Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 147 years of record keeping and 5 out of nyc's top 10 snowfalls have occurred in the past decade. our snow climo is changing rapidly. Yeah, a more realistic average should be around 38" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I don't see it. The trough is too far east, by the time the northern vorts drop in. Unless we see a dramatic shift, this is a coastal scraper threat with better results for E. LI and SNE. I think it's way too early to be drawing those conclusions. Especially considering how far NW the Euro and EPS have been and the trend this year for everything to move further NW over time. I would agree that this storm would favor E LI and SNE over the rest of the area, but we all know how volatile these things can be. Then you add in the Euro's better skill with Miller A's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 12z GFS went east of 6z..I'm still not giving up hope on this one yet tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 There's lots of wiggle room on this...if the trough goes negative even 6 hours earlier than depicted on euro it's coming up the coast, and way west of current depiction This may come far enough west to effect eastern areas. We are gonna need a dramatic shift W for us in the interior to have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 147 years of record keeping and 5 out of nyc's top 10 snowfalls have occurred in the past decade. our snow climo is changing rapidly. Regardless of where you stand on agw it had been well studied especially in the last 10-15 years that warmer artic=more severe mid latitude winter weather. Doesn't mean we won't have some dud winters but they may be fewer and further between. Between 1970-2000 there were 16 "duds" (arbitrarily <20 inches of snow) 14 average or above and only 5 > or equal to 30. Since 2000, there have been only 4 "duds" (01-02,06-07,07-08 and 11-12). Of the rest only 2 were less than 30, 08-09 and 12-13. The rest (9 winters) were >30 and 8 of them >40 with half of those being >50. To put in perspective, between 1948-1949 and 2008-2009 (60 years) there have only been 5 winters with >50 inches of snowfall. Since 2009-2010 they're have already been 4 and depending on the rest of this winter we have at least a shot at 5 equaling the previous 60years. A snowy period such as this just does not exist in the 147 years of NYC snowfall climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 we measure snow differently than before...one of the best examples of this was the blizzard of 64...it was a 24 hr storm that measured 12.5"...the snow depth measured 13"...something is wrong here if it was a six hour measurement...no snow was on the ground when it started and you would think 24 hours of snow would compact by the time it ended... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Agree about the measuring snow different uncle w but that can't account for the large difference seen. It likely has some effect though I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Agree about the measuring snow different uncle w but that can't account for the large difference seen. It likely has some effect though I agree The seasonal average of 25" was probably never true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Agree about the measuring snow different uncle w but that can't account for the large difference seen. It likely has some effect though I agree the last 24 years had 20 storms 10" or more...not counting last years 9.8" storm...the 24 years before that was 1968-69 to 1991-92 had 5...1944-45-1967-68 had 11... Year....date....amount"... 1872...12/26.......18.0" 1875...4/13.........10.0" 1876...2/3-4........11.0" 1877...1/1-2........13.0" 1879...1/15-16....13.0" 1888...3/12-14....21.0" 1896...3/2...........10.0" 1896...3/15-16....12.0" 1897...1/27-28....10.0" 1898...11/26-27..10.0" 1899...2/12-14....16.0" 1902...2/17..........10.0" 1905...1/24-25.....11.0" 1907...2/4-5.........11.0" 1908...1/23-24.....10.0" 1910...1/14-15.....10.0" 1912...12/24........11.4" 1914...3/1-2.........14.5" 1915...4/3-4.........10.2" 1916...12/15........12.7" 1920...2/4-7.........17.5" 1921...2/20..........12.5" 1925...1/2............11.5" 1926...2/3-4.........10.4" 1926...2/9-10.......12.0" 1933...2/11..........10.0" 1933...12/26........11.2" 1935...1/23-24.....13.0" 1941...3/7-8.........18.1" 1947...2/20-21.....10.7" 1947...12/26-27...26.4" 1948...12/19-20...16.0" 1956...3/18-19.....11.6" 1958...3/19-20.....11.8" 1959...12/21-22...13.7" 1960...3/3-4.........14.5" 1960...12/11-12...15.2" 1961...2/3-4.........17.4" 1964...1/12-13.....12.5" 1967...2/7............12.5" 1969...2/9-10.......15.3" 1978...1/19-20.....13.6" 1978...2/6-7.........17.7" 1979...2/19..........12.7" 1983...2/11-12.....17.6" 1993...3/13-14.....10.6" 1994...2/11..........12.8" 1995...2/4............10.8" 1996...1/7-8.........20.2" 1996...2/16-17.....10.7" 2000...12/30........12.0" 2003...2/16-17.....19.8" 2003...12/5-6.......14.0" 2004...1/28..........10.4" 2005...1/22-23.....13.8" 2006...2/11-12.....26.9" 2009...12/19-20...10.9" 2010...2/9-10.......10.0" 2010...2/25-26.....20.9" 2010...12/26-27...20.0" 2011...1/25-26.....19.0" 2013...2/8-9.........11.4" 2014...1/21..........11.5" 2014...2/13-14.....12.5" 2016...1/22-23.....26.8" 1870's...5 1880's...1 1890's...5 1900's...4 1910's...5 1920's...5 1930's...3 1940's...4 1950's...3 1960's...6 1970's...3 1980's...1 1990's...5 2000's...7 2010's...8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 It's crazy were 60% through the decade and already have 8 10+ storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Look familiar Day 10 Canadian . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Look familiar Day 10 Canadian . If you can please elaborate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 If you can please elaborate 10 days away . Fantasy range from 1 OP The set up at 500 is similar to what you just saw . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 If you can please elaborate It looks like the blizzard that just occurred Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 If you can please elaborate If you take the least reliable model, and run it out as far as it goes, and extrapolate a couple days, then there's a big storm coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 The Ggem map posted is definitely a snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 For when the UKMET starts running http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&hh=084&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 147 years of record keeping and 5 out of nyc's top 10 snowfalls have occurred in the past decade. our snow climo is changing rapidly. Great information -- is it also true that a disproportionate number of years with minimal snow have also occurred in the past 20 years or so? Was just looking at annual snowfall totals for the last 40 years and 94/95, 97/98, 01/02, and 11/12, none greater than 6.5", with honorable mention for the two years 06/07, 07/08 which averaged about 10" Keyword seems to be increased variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 10 days away . Fantasy range from 1 OP The set up at 500 is similar to what you just saw . That event may strongly depend upon how much that lakes and northern New England clipper blows up over eastern Canada and acts as a 50/50. The model runs that have shown that system redeveloping the last 2 days have all had a strong 50-50 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 10 days away . Fantasy range from 1 OP The set up at 500 is similar to what you just saw . The NAO and AO are forecasted to go negative at that time. That pattern on the Canadian screams another potential major storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Kind of OT but who knew the GFS may have had this threat correct 336 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Car feels warm after sitting in the sun. Winter's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 What does the king say for Thursday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I think the Euro is just running now(not in range yet) and does anyone else think its weird that the UKMET isn't out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Car feels warm after sitting in the sun. Winter's over.Stick a fork in it, the sun is getting higher everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Stick a fork in it, the sun is getting higher everyday. I wouldn't mind it being spring tomorrow. I worked 29 hours straight during the storm and another 12 today. Shot! N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Stick a fork in it, the sun is getting higher everyday.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I wouldn't mind it being spring tomorrow. I worked 29 hours straight during the storm and another 12 today. Shot! N All it takes is one monster storm to wipe people out and look forward to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I wouldn't mind it being spring tomorrow. I worked 29 hours straight during the storm and another 12 today. Shot! N All it takes is one monster storm to wipe people out and look forward to spring. Easy for you guys to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I'm not wiped out. I'm ready for more. Of course, I'm at least content, for now anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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