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Continued Winter Banter.


Ericjcrash

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In Homer’s Odyssey, Circe warned:

 

…you will come to the Sirens who enchant all who come near them. If anyone unwarily draws in too close and hears the singing of the Sirens, his wife and children will never welcome him home again, for they sit in a green field and warble him to death with the sweetness of their song. There is a great heap of dead men's bones lying all around, with the flesh still rotting off them. Therefore pass these Sirens by, and stop your men's ears with wax that none of them may hear…

 

Circe could well have been serving warning about the NAM. Although the NAM’s QPF and snowfall amounts are unparalleled for their “sweetness,” if one looks at past outcomes, “there is a great heap” of busted forecasts “lying all around.” Bitter memories of snowfall that never materialized, stinging tears, and piercing heartbreak linger among those who relied on such forecasts.

 

Therefore, at least until some of the more reliable models lend support, one should “pass” the NAM’s forecasts “by” and, if necessary cover one’s eyes to the NAM’s seductive maps.

 

 

But it's soooooo beautiful   :stun:

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Say what you will about the NAM but it absolutely nailed the Feb. 6 2010 event. Lurking through the archive is interesting. Before all the other models, the NAM showed the heavy snow in Philly and the sharp gradient in NJ. Philly was on the edge and the forecast called for 8-12" when Mt. Holly issued their warnings. People back then were also claiming the NAM's foot and half for SEPA was overdone. Philly ended with over two feet.

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Say what you will about the NAM but it absolutely nailed the Feb. 6 2010 event. Lurking through the archive is interesting. Before all the other models, the NAM showed the heavy snow in Philly and the sharp gradient in NJ. Philly was on the edge and the forecast called for 8-12" when Mt. Holly issued their warnings. People back then were also claiming the NAM's foot and half for SEPA was overdone. Philly ended with over two feet.

 

I remember, and even the following morning it was iffy (we actually changed to rain briefly).  Then it started absolutely ripping.

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Not "the one" but close enough lol. Yea let's take the NAM serously.

NAM snowfall map for Juno. I accidentally deleted the one that showed my area getting 50" lol

You're on my sh** list now. 

 

It's almost March '01 level.  Almost.

Worse, IMO. Was gonna obliterate the record and we had the King in our corner.

March 01 was bad, but this was worse, IMO.

 

Yehuda for moderator

No thanks. Been there, done that. Y'all need therapy. ;)
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NAM can be overdone, but it has it uses and must be considered.  If I see tonight's GFS and ECMWF tick north and the NAM stay the same then I would increase amounts.  If the other models push the precip further south then I would discount the NAM and decrease amounts. Also, today's GEM pushed the precip. gradient south, not the best model, but still needs some consideration. so it is a hard forecast for our area.

 

Watch me tonight on a FOX channel 5 10pm news interview.

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