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Continued Winter Banter.


Ericjcrash

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I'm yet to see a single post that hugs the nam? Or see a met do the same... Explains what the nam shows.. Is not hugging it... Nobody on here said the nams correct in its solution..

I'd rather not name names, but believe me, you'll find them.

 

Either your definition of model hugging is off, or everyone here talking about the veracity of the NAM, and how the NAM should be taken seriously because it's in it's "range", (even though it's showing massive amounts while other models show much less) isn't model hugging

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I'd rather not name names, but believe me, you'll find them.

Either your definition of model hugging is off, or everyone here talking about the veracity of the NAM, and how the NAM should be taken seriously because it's in it's "range", (even though it's showing massive amounts while other models show much less) isn't model hugging

Everyone hugged this model too... How did that work out for most?

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Jesus, I think some of these trolls need some ban time..... Stirring the pot without offering an ounce of genuine input... I could name 3 people that only post negative comments, with 0 science, after every run, then disappear the remainder of the day

It's pointless to back up posts with science when even a few miles can mean going from 15 inches to getting nothing more than a dusting. There are too many factors in play with this storm to just say "A little confluence here, trough digs there, a CCB at the northwest edge, and boom, we get 10-15 inches."

 

It'll be best to just let the models play out, and determine the most likely from how much agreement there is. It's never smart to jump on one model and hope for the rest to follow suit. That's called weenieism.

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It's pointless to back up posts with science when even a few miles can mean going from 15 inches to getting nothing more than a dusting. There are too many factors in play with this storm to just say "A little confluence here, trough digs there, a CCB at the northwest edge, and boom, we get 10-15 inches."

It'll be best to just let the models play out, and determine the most likely from how much agreement there is. It's never smart to jump on one model and hope for the rest to follow suit. That's called weenieism.

And what your referring to is called modeloligy

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In Homer’s Odyssey, Circe warned:

 

…you will come to the Sirens who enchant all who come near them. If anyone unwarily draws in too close and hears the singing of the Sirens, his wife and children will never welcome him home again, for they sit in a green field and warble him to death with the sweetness of their song. There is a great heap of dead men's bones lying all around, with the flesh still rotting off them. Therefore pass these Sirens by, and stop your men's ears with wax that none of them may hear…

 

Circe could well have been serving warning about the NAM. Although the NAM’s QPF and snowfall amounts are unparalleled for their “sweetness,” if one looks at past outcomes, “there is a great heap” of busted forecasts “lying all around.” Bitter memories of snowfall that never materialized, stinging tears, and piercing heartbreak linger among those who relied on such forecasts.

 

Therefore, at least until some of the more reliable models lend support, one should “pass” the NAM’s forecasts “by” and, if necessary cover one’s eyes to the NAM’s seductive maps.

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And what your referring to is called modeloligy

Well, it's certainly better than riding the model with the most snow.

 

It's best to rely on the most model agreement until the storm is close enough to nowcast in cases like this.

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Just wondering why outright weenism is allowed there

Its not. But until you start paying me, youll have to deal with me deleting stuff as quickly as i can, and occasionally blatant trolling catches my eye moreso than some kid getting a little too excited about a NAM run. Veterans who should know better dont get the same benefit of the doubt as newer posters.

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Its not. But until you start paying me, youll have to deal with me deleting stuff as quickly as i can, and occasionally blatant trolling catches my eye moreso than some kid getting a little too excited about a NAM run. Veterans who should know better dont get the same benefit of the doubt as newer posters.

The voice of reason
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GFS seems to be acknowledging that NAM is onto something!

The NAM is onto nothing.

This is embarrassing. How many times do you guys need to see the NAM in this time range blow up and tuck in a storm close to the coast giving us a ton of snow (while the globals show something completely different) and be dead wrong?? AUTO-TOSS!!!

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