TwcMan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Weren't the models showing us getting like 25-40 inches with that one storm last year, and instead we got like 8-10 inches? I'd hold off on the huge totals until we're less than 24 hours away, especially with the models predicting such huge accumulations so far out (sounds weird, I know).I believe it was only the EURO showing those crazy totals up until the day before. Most other models showed the heaviest just missing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Weren't the models showing us getting like 25-40 inches with that one storm last year, and instead we got like 8-10 inches? I'd hold off on the huge totals until we're less than 24 hours away, especially with the models predicting such huge accumulations so far out (sounds weird, I know). Only one, King Euro. The rest has backed off leading up to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ultimately, last year was a 50 mile miss right and it made all the difference in the world, but explain that to the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Last year's fiasco will lead to the possibility of the following scenario: what if by Thursday evening the GFS is still leading the pack and the forcast , officially, becomes 20-25 inches , blizzard conditions from 1am Sat. till 3 pm Sunday. NWS goes with this, I guarantee you there will be many who will snicker and say" oh really? you told us 2-3 feet last year and look how that verified?'' This is a potentially life endagering scenario Pro mets have to guard against by explaining how situation is different Those will be the same people who snickered about Sandy right before it hit. A lot of people thought Sandy wasn't going to be bad and looked at how it turned out. Just an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If someone is stubborn enough to not listen to warnings about an impending major snowstorm and gets themselves hurt, it's their own fault. Just because a forecast was wrong one time doesn't mean it'll be wrong every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If someone is stubborn enough to not listen to warnings about an impending major snowstorm and gets themselves hurt, it's their own fault. Just because a forecast was wrong one time doesn't mean it'll be wrong every time. Yeah and it's not like we're talking about a cat 5 hurricane or ef5 tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Mt Holly very bullish. 90% pops 5 days out .FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW. BLUSTERY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...SNOW. WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. WINDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Only one, King Euro. The rest has backed off leading up to the storm. Well, not too sure about the Euro, but I remember looking at the NAM about 36-48 hours out, and was consistently showing NYC getting about 25-40 inches of snow. I remember people here were going nuts over it (including me tbh). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Mt Holly very bullish. 90% pops 5 days out .FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW. BLUSTERY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...SNOW. WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. WINDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. Woof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Too bad it's too early still to get NAM'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Woof They're also faster and bring mixing up to monmouth county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ultimately, last year was a 50 mile miss right and it made all the difference in the world, but explain that to the public. I guess since it was snow and NYC metro it made a difference. It's pretty common with rain events for the difference between and inch or two to be off by 50 miles leading up to the event. I can't imagine what would have happened with a tweak of physics if the Islip deluge of 13+ in a few hours turned out to be snow. Rainfall amounts were all over the place before that and obviously way too low. But people unrealistically expect perfection all the time when it comes to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Can't wait till we get NAM'd. You know it's gotta outdo the other models in the snowfall amount department. 60 inches on the 18z Thursday for Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Well, not too sure about the Euro, but I remember looking at the NAM about 36-48 hours out, and was consistently showing NYC getting about 25-40 inches of snow. I remember people here were going nuts over it (including me tbh).I swear if people start analyzing the NAM when this gets close in, I will lose my mind. Our NCEP and NWS mets that post here hate hearing it but the NAM is always wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 https://twitter.com/paulythegun/status/689188077252792320 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I swear if people start analyzing the NAM when this gets close in, I will lose my mind. Our NCEP and NWS mets that post here hate hearing it but the NAM is always wrong. 100$ says our typical weenies find some excuse as to why the NAM QPF bomb we all know is inevitable can actually happen lol... I'm calling it right now, NAM says 24-36" up and down seaboard, on Wednesday lol Mark it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 100$ says our typical weenies find some excuse as to why the NAM QPF bomb we all know is inevitable can actually happen lol... I'm calling it right now, NAM says 24-36" up and down seaboard, on Wednesday lol Mark it Lol we should start a poll asking whats the most snowfall the NAM will show throughout the 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 100$ says our typical weenies find some excuse as to why the NAM QPF bomb we all know is inevitable can actually happen lol... I'm calling it right now, NAM says 24-36" up and down seaboard, on Wednesday lol Mark it Of course people will "analyze" it. It just drives me nuts. And if the evolution of this storm stays the same on the rest of the models, the NAM will show a 3-4' solution at some point for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Of course people will "analyze" it. It just drives me nuts. And if the evolution of this storm stays the same on the rest of the models, the NAM will show a 3-4' solution at some point for our area. And that's kind of the most irritating part of this storm. It looks like just another run-of-the-mill "huge 18-24 inch, blizzard" storm on the models, that just ends up to be a relatively windy snowstorm that dumps about 8-10 inches, and people aren't ashamed to go crazy over it. IMO, the last true winter that had a real blizzard/snowstorm actually dumping close to the amount of snow forecasted by the models was 2010-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Time for the mighty 18z GFS. Over under 16in for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Time for the mighty 18z GFS. Over under 16in for NYC?Taking the over...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'll take under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 You would need a 20-30" swath from DC to NYC to make a run 1996 rating. If the models verify, this storm will likely be in the Cat. 4 range, since the entire I-95 corridor from DC to Boston is currently forecasted to be in the 10-20" zone. Population is factored heavily in the NESIS scale I agree. In my opinion, this storm realistically has a chance to fall somewhere in the top 5 to top 10 if some of the more aggressive guidance proves reasonably accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 18z GFS looking good so far. Might go over the 16 inch mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 While I let them do their pbp's, this might actually be the best gfs run yet for our area. Let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Wow Philly is crushed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Could this storm rival last year's blizzard? And on top if the fact huge storm,likely with very strong winds, we have a full moon, with higher then normal tides.... Big concern for coastal flooding no doubt. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FOCUS OF ATTENTION THIS PERIOD SHIFTS TO A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS GOOD CLUSTERING OF THE LOW TRACK TO THE SE OF LI NEAR THE BENCHMARK 40N...70W SAT NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A PRIMARILY SNOW EVENT. THAT BEING THE CASE...THE DISTURBANCE IS STILL OVER THE EASTERN PAC IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. TIMING AND INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN STREAM POLAR AIR WILL BE CRITICAL IN BOTH TRACK AND PTYPE. WHILE THERE IS GOOD CLUSTERING AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...ANY DEVIATION NORTH AND SOUTH CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY PREVAILS FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE AT THE SFC...BUT WAA WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WED NIGHT AND PERHAPS A FLURRY. MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE DISTURBANCE WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND ALLOW FOR POLAR HIGH PRESSURE TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL LAY THE FOUNDATION OF COLD AIR FOR THE DEVELOPING LATE WEEK STORM. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS THE PAC ENERGY DIVES SE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...THUS ALLOWING FOR A COASTAL LOW TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THU MORNING. THIS LOW TRACKS NE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRI MORNING WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SE COAST. IT IS THIS LOW THAT POTENTIALLY IMPACTS THE REGION WITH A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM LATE FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES MEMBERS...BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED EVEN SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS OF THE LOW TRACK CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. ITS MUCH TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOWFALL...THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXIST FOR HIGH WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING. THERE IS A FULL MOON COMING UP ON JAN. 23. HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC FOLLOWS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS AND LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD AT AT OR JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Glenn frey passed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Long Island gets 'screwed' this run with only a foot. Elsewhere snow heaven. I'll take it with those winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Long Island gets 'screwed' this run with only a foot. Elsewhere snow heaven. I'll take it with those winds. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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