Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 GFS is running.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Blizzard watch posted for DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wayyyy out of range so I'll put in banter, but the Hi-res NAM looks even better than the 12k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If it stalls I think all of long island and even NYC might taint NYC proper is probably okay. If the system stalled over the Delmarva instead and the winds were more Southeasterly then it would probably taint well into NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NYC proper is probably okay. If the system stalled over the Delmarva instead and the winds were more Southeasterly then it would probably taint well into NJ.Coastal NJ and the twin forks should be the only places with real mixing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Blizzard watch posted for DC area. Barring any dramatic shifts in the negative direction with the 12z suite I would expect blizzard watches up to at least Philly by this evening. They might wait until after 00z for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Coastal NJ and the twin forks should be the only places with real mixing issues Agreed, I think the city is fine here and so is most of Long Island. With this storm I don't think you want to be North of I-84 or East of say Smithtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I've always wondered what a good storm would be like in a high rise. Imagine snow at your place and rain on the ground too. I could not imagine being in one of those supertall high rises 1000 feet up. But my building is a pre-war building, so plenty of ill-fitting windows and doors that whistle and rattle like mad in the wind. It's going to be like being in a ship at sea. Without the rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Coastal NJ and the twin forks should be the only places with real mixing issues Updated nws at 956 says my high will be 35 versus montauk at 37 I believe. I think montauk very very easily mixes. Beyond that will be a silver lining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 i know how badly everyone wants to see the okx area painted in green but that probably won't happen until tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Updated nws at 956 says my high will be 35 versus montauk at 37 I believe. I think montauk very very easily mixes. Beyond that will be a silver lining. Your going to mix out there. Just look at Boxing Day as a reference even 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 i know how badly everyone wants to see the okx area painted in green but that probably won't happen until tomorrow Makes sense given the question on the northern edge of the heavy stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Your going to mix out there. Just look at Boxing Day as a reference even 96I'm sure your familiar with the east end... Lol greenport,has a forecast of all snow,temp of 34, no mixing. Orient high of 35 mixing, lolTalk about crazy forecast by Nws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Also banter... But RGEM through 60, has WAYYYYY less confluence.... Even less than the NAM.. Sign of things to come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Praying! Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm sure your familiar with the east end... Lol greenport,has a forecast of all snow,temp of 34, no mixing. Orient high of 35 mixing, lol Talk about crazy forecast by Nws. I think riverhead east has a high likely hood of at least switching to sleet if not rain. Water temps are 5 degrees above normal and there will be ENE winds for a time out there. Also you will have wet snow which will cake to trees and power lines add in the strongest winds in our region (gust to 60+) and there coup be widespread power outages out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Actually boxing day storm I did really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Also banter... But RGEM through 60, has WAYYYYY less confluence.... Even less than the NAM.. Sign of things to come?That's what we need to see. Let the good times roll!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looking at the archive,I had a blizzard warning for 8-16 inches. I remember plowing in that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looking at the archive,I had a blizzard warning for 8-16 inches. I remember plowing in that storm That's way less then the 30" amounts in jersey and I had 22" in wantagh. So you definitely were mixing in that storm Regardless when you add all the effects out there you're going to have the highest impact in our region. Wind, power outages, costal flooding and erosion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That's way less then the 30" amounts in jersey and I had 22" in wantagh. So you definitely were mixing in that storm Regardless when you add all the effects out there you're going to have the highest impact in our region. Wind, power outages, costal flooding and erosion Well, the low was way Way closer to me. Crap,my weather station will tell me what happened that storm! Point was the original totals Nws had out this way had to be raised several times. Lemme see what temperatures were produced here. Be interesting to get a perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Today should overperform in the temperature department after busting on the over night lows. Already up to 35 at ewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChineseFood4Snow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Cool...snow hole over my house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ok,so the boxing day storm,2010. correct? If so, I never went above freezing at all the entire storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Unfortunately I'll have to admit, it's looking less likely that we see anything decent up this far..... Baring a complete reversal in all model guidance... And a 50-100 mile shift northwest, were out of luck at this point, and living on prayers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Unfortunately I'll have to admit, it's looking less likely that we see anything decent up this far..... Baring a complete reversal in all model guidance... And a 50-100 mile shift northwest, were out of luck at this point, and living on prayers Maybe your back yard is out of luck but not mine in Sayreville.....smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ok,so the boxing day storm,2010. correct? If so, I never went above freezing at all the entire storm... Hmmmm maybe just the south fork then. If I remember correctly you did dry slot for a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Maybe your back yard is out of luck but not mine in Sayreville.....smh Ok? And my post had nothing to do with your backyard....hence why I said "this far north" .... Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Unfortunately I'll have to admit, it's looking less likely that we see anything decent up this far..... Baring a complete reversal in all model guidance... And a 50-100 mile shift northwest, were out of luck at this point, and living on prayers We are gonna need a good 100 mile shift north with everything. Otherwise its an advisory level event for some of us and less for others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 We are gonna need a good 100 mile shift north with everything. Otherwise its an advisory level event for some of us and less for others. Or we just need it to not jump east 300 miles like the gem and GFS show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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