PB GFI Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Starting to get excited... Friday NightSnow likely. Blustery with lows in the mid 20s. Chance of snow 60 percent. Saturday01/2334 | 25 °F Saturday Snow likely. Blustery with highs in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 60 percent. Dude N VA gonna max out here . This should be the one time you take a 3 day wknd and head out THRS night . That is where the real show will def b . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 We are in the "things could go wrong" phase right now. If we can get to mid Wednesday with what models show today then it would be a home run. I agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Dude N VA gonna max out here . This should be the one time you take a 3 day wknd and head out THRS night . That is where the real show will def b . Haha, they are all waiting for that to trend out of their area down there. The DC snow curse is strong (2010 notwithstanding). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 EURO closes off the low twice so far..how often does that happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Monster run for mid Atlantic. Pretty good up here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro is running. For entertainment purposes, I'd love for it to either be all rain for the city, or OTS. Too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Too bad.Somehow I don't think you are that upset with the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Overall, after looking at the qpf and temperature profiles, the ECMWF would be a big storm from DCA to BOS (1-2 feet DCA and PHL and maybe 12"-18" for NYC and BOS) with some areas of higher snowfall especially from parts of VA into southern PA. Across Long Island and extreme southeastern New England, there would be some precipitation-type issues. It wouldn't surprise me from that data if even NYC and nearby suburbs had some sleet and mixing for a time. As this depiction stands, it would probably fall short of the Blizzard of 1996 on the NESIS scale. It would probably need to close off a little later and pass offshore rather than over the Delmarva Peninsula to make a run at the 1996 rating. The NESIS storms can be found here: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Banter ... The Euro OP still has it`s day 10 system trying to climb the coast . Long way out there so something to keep an eye on . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Lol KMA Try not to break your neck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Priceless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Overall, after looking at the qpf and temperature profiles, the ECMWF would be a big storm from DCA to BOS (1-2 feet DCA and PHL and maybe 12"-18" for NYC and BOS) with some areas of higher snowfall especially from parts of VA into southern PA. Across Long Island and extreme southeastern New England, there would be some precipitation-type issues. It wouldn't surprise me from that data if even NYC and nearby suburbs had some sleet and mixing for a time. As this depiction stands, it would probably fall short of the Blizzard of 1996 on the NESIS scale. It would probably need to close off a little later and pass offshore rather than over the Delmarva Peninsula to make a run at the 1996 rating. The NESIS storms can be found here: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis You would need a 20-30" swath from DC to NYC to make a run 1996 rating. If the models verify, this storm will likely be in the Cat. 4 range, since the entire I-95 corridor from DC to Boston is currently forecasted to be in the 10-20" zone. Population is factored heavily in the NESIS scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The consistency on these runs is what getting me. If this continues to stick.. I can assure you it will be one to remember wherever it hits. I think history has proven that models will lock onto the HECS type storms from 5-7 days out. And it seems to be the case here. This is the most consistent model agreement I think I have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The consistency on these runs is what getting me. If this continues to stick.. I can assure you it will be one to remember wherever it hits. I think history has proven that models will lock onto the HECS type storms from 5-7 days out. And it seems to be the case here. This is the most consistent model agreement I think I have ever seen. I remember the JMA was the only model to have the 96 storm this far out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The consistency on these runs is what getting me. If this continues to stick.. I can assure you it will be one to remember wherever it hits. I think history has proven that models will lock onto the HECS type storms from 5-7 days out. And it seems to be the case here. This is the most consistent model agreement I think I have ever seen. It's quite amazing actually. Usually we see two different model camps this far out, one camp on the snow side, the other on the no snow side. To have all major models basically showing the same outcome is amazing *knock on wood*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I can just imagine The mass weenie suicides if the euro para verified After last year, I we're suicide-proof. Lol KMA Try not to break your neck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If there is a second storm, I hope it holds until the 29th. I'm flying out on the 28th, first time my kids will ever be on a plane. I don't want to deprive them of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Time period I'm most interested in this week is tomorrow night and into early Wednesday. At that point, all key players are sampled and you can begin to hash out the finer details of any potential storm and take modeling a bit more seriously. I maintain that you have a period here with a weak PNA spike and transitioning out of blocking to get a decent hit here. Players are on the field for a good hit, just a matter of how progressive this ends up becoming. Least likely scenario here is rain. It's either coastal hit or nothing, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Hold the suntan lotion please . We need to get past this weekend and then Day 10 . If they happen to fall in place at least one can say it was not a decent turn around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This is the most consistent model agreement I think I have ever seen. You haven't been looking very long then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Day 10 The Euro ensembles at 0z have it as well . Would be a nice starting point this far away . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 You haven't been looking very long then... I been around a while..lol What am I missing? I dont have that great of a memory like some do here to remember every storm. Like what was mentioned, it's usually 2 camps, snow or no. To see all the big players show what they are this far out is a rare bird.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'm worried people won't take the forecasts seriously after last year's bust. I've already told a few of my customers and they didn't believe me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'm worried people won't take the forecasts seriously after last year's bust. I've already told a few of my customers and they didn't believe me. More than one told me the same thing. EPS mean is real weenie land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 9-15"+ for me already on weather.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Time period I'm most interested in this week is tomorrow night and into early Wednesday. At that point, all key players are sampled and you can begin to hash out the finer details of any potential storm and take modeling a bit more seriously. I maintain that you have a period here with a weak PNA spike and transitioning out of blocking to get a decent hit here. Players are on the field for a good hit, just a matter of how progressive this ends up becoming. Least likely scenario here is rain. It's either coastal hit or nothing, IMO. That is really what is keeping me from going all in with the potential storm this weekend, and believe me I am close. I would just like to wait until all the players are sampled before going hog wild. But with the overwhelming model and ensemble support its hard not to want to go all in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Anyone have a good link to info about closed off lows and their characteristics? I'm trying to understand why areas to the north and west jackpot where the low initially closes off...as opposed to areas further down flow. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'm worried people won't take the forecasts seriously after last year's bust. I've already told a few of my customers and they didn't believe me. I was thinking the same thing. I don't envy the NWS and others who make living from forecasting. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Weren't the models showing us getting like 25-40 inches with that one storm last year, and instead we got like 8-10 inches? I'd hold off on the huge totals until we're less than 24 hours away, especially with the models predicting such huge accumulations so far out (sounds weird, I know). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Last year's fiasco will lead to the possibility of the following scenario: what if by Thursday evening the GFS is still leading the pack and the forcast , officially, becomes 20-25 inches , blizzard conditions from 1am Sat. till 3 pm Sunday. NWS goes with this, I guarantee you there will be many who will snicker and say" oh really? you told us 2-3 feet last year and look how that verified?'' This is a potentially life endagering scenario Pro mets have to guard against by explaining how situation is different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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