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Continued Winter Banter.


Ericjcrash

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Lol. I like your style.

At least we still have the 12z Euro. I have the car tailpipe close by just in case though.

 

 

Nothing set in stone . Most 7 day threats should stay in banter .I understand the angst we are working without a real block . The Euro swings a feature through at 120 . It is further S than the GFS and that may allow the Vortex to push through the lakes .

The WAR has way less influence than on the GFS , but at 7 days out I would take nothing off the table . 

As is that is a good set up for almost all  on the Euro . 

 

You can the differences with the WAR here at 192 as the Euro deepens further E . 

gfs_z500a_sd_namer_33.png

 

 

ecmwf_z500a_sd_namer_9.png

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getting a 2' snowfall and a below zero day after a December that was a warm November is just as amazing as December was warm...it had no days 32 or below...it averaged over 50 degrees...six above the previous high...1982-83 had some 70 degree days in early December and a warm Christmas day but had a few days of cold with a snowfall between warmth...this is the only winter that compares with this one but not as extreme...

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12Z EURO is 8" for NYC, but the PARA is just 2" here.

 

In the meantime the next 7 days seem to be +6degs., so we should be about +1.5 to +2.0degs. for the month by the 24th., since we are  normal as of yesterday.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA

 

Day 9 

The 0z  PARA is 10 -12 for  KNYC . 

With 12- 15 in CNJ and LI .

It totally misses the  far NW suburbs 

 

The PARA was a full day slower .

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Dr. Joe Sobel and Dr. Joel Myers (he was still on the air at the time) did a terrific job on 1010 WINS.

I learned a lot listening to AccuWeather on 1010 wins while growing up...always thought they did the best forcasting job, over and above the nws, especially when forecasting temperatures, but it seems accu wx has gone downhill over the last several years for whatever reason imo.
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I don't worry about weather unless there is eminent danger.  At this point I think it would be kinda cool to finish this winter with less than 25% of my annual snowfall.  

Agree.   Sometimes we don't know whats going to happen 24 hours before the event and that's the fun of it. It is what it is. The extremes are the best too see, and hope there is no loss of property or life.

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Posted this in wrong thread lol

But,

This storm couldn't come at a worse time to.... brand new washer dryer and ride on lawn mower being delivered to my grandmas since my house still isn't freaking done... lol of all the weeks for the storm. Although, if this is done before Friday, I think I'm safe

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Your the one kid who everyone hates because there only about negativity and false statements.

Exactly. At least you guys know how to mindlessly hump a model run 240 hours out and keep believing in a MECS till the "storm" passes and drops 0 inches of snow.

 

There's no need to insult someone just because they believe differently or look at the models in a different way than you.

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Exactly. At least you guys know how to mindlessly hump a model run 240 hours out and keep believing in a MECS till the "storm" passes and drops 0 inches of snow.

There's no need to insult someone just because they believe differently or look at the models in a different way than you.

It was sarcasm lol. And fun joking around, though even if a storm is quite likely to look possible they still go against. Unless your talking about him
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It was sarcasm lol. Unless your talking about him

It doesn't matter, dude. If you want to argue with him, fine. But what you said was just a plain insult. And sarcasm isn't very visible through a screen.

 

Why can't snow lovers be more like severe weather lovers? They don't fight often, and accept the fact that by September, the probability of even plain t-storms lowers greatly, regardless of freak storms like 9/8/12 or 9/16/10. We got a huge amount of snow from the 1/23 storm, I don't understand why there's still so much fighting going on like it's Feb 2012.

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It doesn't matter, dude. If you want to argue with him, fine. But what you said was just a plain insult. And sarcasm isn't very visible through a screen.

Why can't snow lovers be more like severe weather lovers? They don't fight often, and accept the fact that by September, the probability of even plain t-storms lowers greatly, regardless of freak storms like 9/8/12 or 9/16/10. We got a huge amount of snow from the 1/23 storm, I don't understand why there's still so much fighting going on like it's Feb 2012.

Check your messages.

Not really? I was going say chicken little but it didn't exactly work out.lol

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It doesn't matter, dude. If you want to argue with him, fine. But what you said was just a plain insult. And sarcasm isn't very visible through a screen.

Why can't snow lovers be more like severe weather lovers? They don't fight often, and accept the fact that by September, the probability of even plain t-storms lowers greatly, regardless of freak storms like 9/8/12 or 9/16/10. We got a huge amount of snow from the 1/23 storm, I don't understand why there's still so much fighting going on like it's Feb 2012.

Cause there's a lot of people on this board, myself included that didn't get crap all season.. This board doesn't end at the TAP

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Cause there's a lot of people on this board, myself included that didn't get crap all season.. This board doesn't end at the TAP

Heh, then think about how the thunderstorm lovers in NYC feel when we get nothing while everyone else gets crushed by severe storms.

 

Want to trade your tstorms for our snow? Lol

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Cause there's a lot of people on this board, myself included that didn't get crap all season.. This board doesn't end at the TAP

When there a map that shows long range prediction and it's blue meaning cold,and someone says looks bad for upcoming period... and then, say upcoming storm must of gotten worse instead of better. Lol it can boil some blood. Look at poor pb. He's been one of the select few who have stuck to the gun. Looked at data and came up with a long range/term idea and it's been fairly accurate and correct! And yet some would go straight up against him and the others, even when that predicted pattern was starting/happening!

Watch the models, state what you see, look at the patterns/data if you understand it,all questions,and just watch/wait till the day off storm!

Best way to learn and understand things.

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I've been largely shutout all season (approx 6" for my seasonal total), but, as a weather enthusiast, these Godzilla Nino storms have been fascinating to track. For example, the MCV over North Carolina yesterday was very cool to see. The storm next week should be another doozy with the huge fetch of moisture being modeled.

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Heh, then think about how the thunderstorm lovers in NYC feel when we get nothing while everyone else gets crushed by severe storms.

Want to trade your tstorms for our snow? Lol

I would loveeeeeee to trade, cause I rarely get a good thunderstorm anyway, usually breaks up then re-developes on the east side of the Hudson... I'd gladly trade HECS for thunderstorms lol

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