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Continued Winter Banter.


Ericjcrash

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so far this winter has 31 days with a minimum of 32 or lower...that's well below average for this time of year...there should be twice as many on average for this time of year...the last two years had 86 and 93 such days...

for the record...

32 min days and year.....

31 in 2015-16 as of 2/16

37 in 2011-12

47 in 2001-02

49 in 1997-98

52 in 1998-99

53 in 1982-83

54 in 1990-91

56 in 1999-00

57 in 1972-73

58 in 1952-53

59 in 1957-58

59 in 1897-98

including this year the four strongest el nino winters are on the list...only 1957-58, 1982-83 and this year had a major snowstorm ...

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In 13 days (March), sun angle starts to become a real issue, as does climatology and increasing daylight hours

I'd say climo is a bigger detractor than anything else.   Up to 3/6 (at least around here) is still pretty good, from 3/6 to about 3/21 things drop off pretty rapidly and accumulating snow becomes rare post 3/21

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In 13 days (March), sun angle starts to become a real issue, as does climatology and increasing daylight hours

Are you allergic to snow? Your forecast already badly busted your obviously a weather enthusiast why not embrace some more snow. We average more snow in March than we do in December. I've seen snow accumulate during the day in April. Smh
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Are you allergic to snow? Your forecast already badly busted your obviously a weather enthusiast why not embrace some more snow. We average more snow in March than we do in December. I've seen snow accumulate during the day in April. Smh

 I think he really hates snow and winter. :weenie:

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Today's Arctic Oscillation was +2.094. The AO has risen sharply in recent days.

 

AO02172016_2.jpg

 

The season-to-date average is +0.022 and 56% of days have had positive values. The AO is forecast to head negative next week, but whether blocking develops soon enough to force a potential storm around the 2/24-25 timeframe farther east than shown on some of the guidance remains to be seen.

 

Overall, NYC still appears poised to have a somewhat positive temperature anomaly for February, even if the AO-, assuming it develops, leads the remaining 3-5 days of February to wind up colder than normal.

 

AO02172016.jpg

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Today's Arctic Oscillation was +2.094. The AO has risen sharply in recent days.

 

AO02172016_2.jpg

 

The season-to-date average is +0.022 and 56% of days have had positive values. The AO is forecast to head negative next week, but whether blocking develops soon enough to force a potential storm around the 2/24-25 timeframe farther east than shown on some of the guidance remains to be seen.

 

Overall, NYC still appears poised to have a somewhat positive temperature anomaly for February, even if the AO-, assuming it develops, leads the remaining 3-5 days of February to wind up colder than normal.

 

AO02172016.jpg

the ao forecast changes every day...one consistent is the nao which is forecast to stay positive for duration...

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it snowed 4.5" last March 20th, 2015...After March 22nd big snows are rare...it snowed 4-7" on April 7th, 2003 during the day...we had a Blizzard on April 6th, 1982...Sun angle is over rated...

I'll never forget that one. 3.9" here. It was on the first day of Spring, which happened to be a Friday. Everyone couldn't believe it, Winter seemed like it wouldn't give up.

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The last two super El Niño events featured some late-season measurable snow.

 

April 19-20, 1983:

Albany: 9.2"

Bridgeport: 0.5"

Danbury: 4.0"

New York City: 0.8"

Newark: 4.1"

 

May 9, 1983:

Albany: 0.1"

 

March 21-22, 1998:

Albany: 4.3"

Bridgeport: 0.5"

Danbury: 1.7"

New York City: 5.5"

Newark: 3.1"

 

April 10, 1998:

Danbury: 0.5"

 

All said, it wouldn't be entirely surprising if 2016 also experiences a late-season snowfall somewhere in the NYC area and surrounding region.

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Yes .

 

But it`s pushed back to day 9 though ANT .

A day slower than the OP 

 

Paul, do you know if WXbell is processing those maps correctly? Every snowstorm has been too far SE for us with

much lower parallel snowfall totals than the OP for each snowstorm. It had about half as much snowfall for the blizzard and other storms than the Op runs did. If that is really the new model and not a wxbell processing

error it will be bad news.

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Paul, do you know if WXbell is processing those maps correctly? Every snowstorm has been too far SE for us with

much lower parallel snowfall totals than the OP for each snowstorm. It had about half as much snowfall for the blizzard and other storms than the Op runs did. If that is really the new model and not a wxbell processing

error it will be bad news.

I have also notice the PARA has been terrible with timing, it tends to be much slower than the op
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only for light or marginal events.  A biggie it won't matter even on April 6th.   See 4/6/82

 

Exactly.

 

For anyone that remembers that storm it snowed throughout the daylight hours, and the so called sun angle had a zero effect anywhere including the roads.

 

I had tickets for the Yankees home opener that day. The season I believe was delayed three days. I hit 12 degrees on April 7th with over a foot of fresh powder on the ground, I think the city hit 19 that morning.

 

And it was powder, the temperature was in the low to mid 20's throughout the event.

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Exactly.

 

For anyone that remembers that storm it snowed throughout the daylight hours, and the so called sun angle had a zero effect anywhere including the roads.

 

I had tickets for the Yankees home opener that day. The season I believe was delayed three days. I hit 12 degrees on April 7th with over a foot of fresh powder on the ground, I think the city hit 19 that morning.

 

And it was powder, the temperature was in the low to mid 20's throughout the event.

Remember it like it was yesterday. Back then I used to listen to WINS 1010. The Metreoligist came on and said very menacingly" folks this is not an April fools joke.. a life thretening Blizzard is heading up the east coast and is taking direct aim on New York''

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the ao forecast changes every day...one consistent is the nao which is forecast to stay positive for duration...

The numbers have been changing lately, but there has been some consistency in its going negative toward the end of the extended range. There's a stronger correlation between snowfall in the NYC area and the AO than with the NAO. At least for the NYC area, the NAO's remaining positive (which has been a tendency in recent winters) is less of a problem.

 

I suspect that the persistent area of cold SSTAs to the southeast of Greenland has contributed to the NAO+ tendency in recent winters.

 

NAO02172016.jpg

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I'd say climo is a bigger detractor than anything else.   Up to 3/6 (at least around here) is still pretty good, from 3/6 to about 3/21 things drop off pretty rapidly and accumulating snow becomes rare post 3/21

 

In the past 146 years there have been 65 storms of 10 inches or more in NYC, 32 of them or about half have occurred in the 30 day period from January 22nd through February 20th. It gradually lessens after that period but not by much until after the first week of March. The 30 day period from February 3rd to March 4th has 28 storms of 10 inches or more. As we get further into March it of course lessens by quite a bit each day, especially along or near the coast.

 

I'd say for every 30-40 miles or so you travel N & W of NYC you can extend those dates out about a week.

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