NycStormChaser Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wow this forum is turning into a dictatorship. Lol just kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So much juice being pumped into this thing. Looks nice on water vapor. The weather models do take in the above avg water temps correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Dammit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yehuda for moderator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 11:12 PM, Rjay said: Dammit You dumbass i saw what you did lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 11:07 PM, yhbrooklyn said: Next person that posts images of the Euro or the NWS forecast from last year's bust should be auto-banned. Jesus, it hurts. It's almost March '01 level. Almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 11:07 PM, yhbrooklyn said: Next person that posts images of the Euro or the NWS forecast from last year's bust should be auto-banned. Jesus, it hurts. NAM snowfall map for Juno. I accidentally deleted the one that showed my area getting 50" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 11:12 PM, BxEngine said: You dumbass i saw what you did lol Instead of posting the right one I deleted it. Sigh. Was my favorite NAM map ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Computer Guy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 11:03 PM, Mophstymeo said: ? On his Twitter feed, he posted (17 mins ago) 7-11". Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Why must people post maps of Juno, its easily one of if not the worst fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Never forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 11:17 PM, Rjay said: Instead of posting the right one I deleted it. Sigh. Was my favorite NAM map ever. Is there a nam archive online? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Chill with the Juno Maps, seems like it gets more talk then Boxing Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 9:29 PM, donsutherland1 said: In Homer’s Odyssey, Circe warned: …you will come to the Sirens who enchant all who come near them. If anyone unwarily draws in too close and hears the singing of the Sirens, his wife and children will never welcome him home again, for they sit in a green field and warble him to death with the sweetness of their song. There is a great heap of dead men's bones lying all around, with the flesh still rotting off them. Therefore pass these Sirens by, and stop your men's ears with wax that none of them may hear… Circe could well have been serving warning about the NAM. Although the NAM’s QPF and snowfall amounts are unparalleled for their “sweetness,” if one looks at past outcomes, “there is a great heap” of busted forecasts “lying all around.” Bitter memories of snowfall that never materialized, stinging tears, and piercing heartbreak linger among those who relied on such forecasts. Therefore, at least until some of the more reliable models lend support, one should “pass” the NAM’s forecasts “by” and, if necessary cover one’s eyes to the NAM’s seductive maps. But it's soooooo beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 11:23 PM, Juliancolton said: Never forget. in retrospect that precip map looks ridiculous for a low that far east. boxing day was more tucked in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 11:23 PM, SnoSki14 said: Why must people post maps of Juno, its easily one of if not the worst fail. Not "the one" but close enough lol. Yea let's take the NAM serously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Can anyone think of the storm, in which the NAM scored the coupe, took the models till the next day to follow suit, and what the set-up was? I can't find it in my archives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Say what you will about the NAM but it absolutely nailed the Feb. 6 2010 event. Lurking through the archive is interesting. Before all the other models, the NAM showed the heavy snow in Philly and the sharp gradient in NJ. Philly was on the edge and the forecast called for 8-12" when Mt. Holly issued their warnings. People back then were also claiming the NAM's foot and half for SEPA was overdone. Philly ended with over two feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 11:45 PM, Rittenhouse said: Say what you will about the NAM but it absolutely nailed the Feb. 6 2010 event. Lurking through the archive is interesting. Before all the other models, the NAM showed the heavy snow in Philly and the sharp gradient in NJ. Philly was on the edge and the forecast called for 8-12" when Mt. Holly issued their warnings. People back then were also claiming the NAM's foot and half for SEPA was overdone. Philly ended with over two feet. I remember, and even the following morning it was iffy (we actually changed to rain briefly). Then it started absolutely ripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 11:44 PM, Rjay said: Not "the one" but close enough lol. Yea let's take the NAM serously. On 1/21/2016 at 11:16 PM, Rjay said: NAM snowfall map for Juno. I accidentally deleted the one that showed my area getting 50" lolYou're on my sh** list now. On 1/21/2016 at 11:16 PM, pazzo83 said: It's almost March '01 level. Almost.Worse, IMO. Was gonna obliterate the record and we had the King in our corner. March 01 was bad, but this was worse, IMO. On 1/21/2016 at 11:12 PM, Snow88 said: Yehuda for moderatorNo thanks. Been there, done that. Y'all need therapy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 11:44 PM, Rjay said: Not "the one" but close enough lol. Yea let's take the NAM serously. See the thing is though other then LI bullseye ammounts aren't that off just 50 miles to far west In this case your against the nam for low placement or QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 11:51 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: See the thing is though other then LI bullseye ammounts aren't that off just 50 miles to far west In this case your against the nam for low placement or QPF? Both.And the bullseye is off by more than 50 miles. It also showed 50" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 11:52 PM, Rjay said: Both. And the bullseye is off by more than 50 miles. It also showed 50" lol. Fair enough. I in now way think the NAM verifys but I could see my 8 NYC and 10 wantagh come in low if we sit in the super band for a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SN21 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Ridiculous with the missed we had, 3 in March 2014, Juno, lets hope this one doesnt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 11:59 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Fair enough. I in now way think the NAM verifys but I could see my 8 NYC and 10 wantagh come in low if we sit in the super band for a long time I still like 6-12" (north to south) for NYC, LI and NE NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 12:02 AM, Rjay said: I still like 6-12" (north to south) for NYC, LI and NE NJ. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The NAMalicious does score the coop every once in a blue moon. It's due... Can we go 6 for 6?... I think so..It's coming! Another small tick north on the other junk tonight and we are smelling like a rose bud! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 12:02 AM, Rjay said: I still like 6-12" (north to south) for NYC, LI and NE NJ. That's a good range. Someone in Uptons zone will see 12+ all it take is a few hours in a heavy 2-3" band. The same type of band that was just 30 miles south of the south shore during 2/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Lol Myers on CNN said the NAM is a very accurate short term model and showed the 2ft totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM can be overdone, but it has it uses and must be considered. If I see tonight's GFS and ECMWF tick north and the NAM stay the same then I would increase amounts. If the other models push the precip further south then I would discount the NAM and decrease amounts. Also, today's GEM pushed the precip. gradient south, not the best model, but still needs some consideration. so it is a hard forecast for our area. Watch me tonight on a FOX channel 5 10pm news interview. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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