Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

January Banter Thread #2


WxUSAF

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I'm going to relentlessly mock the first people to bring up "convective feedback" or "initialization errors" when the models start waffling a little bit in the next day or two.

I'm not sure you saw the post below earlier.

Just curious, but you mentioned that precip totals should be taken with a grain of salt because of thresholds, is there anything else that gets biased when a modeled storm gets this "extreme" for lack of a better word.

 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't need to ask them. Thanks if you want to see them, head on over to accuwx. Maybe they pay for permission, who know. Or they just don't care legally. We do. Don't post the maps.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Ok, tell me how the date with Joe Bastardi goes though!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not sure you saw the post below earlier.

 

Impossible to answer this question since we never have close to a large enough sample size:

  1. Operational models are constantly changing with upgrades.  The current GFS is nothing like the version that was operational before Jan 2015.
  2. No two storms are alike.

I do think that models tend to go overboard a little bit with these really dynamic events with significant nonlinear feedback processes.   That's why it's much better for your sanity to follow the 500mb evolution at leads rather than worrying about exact SLP placement, QPF totals, etc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Impossible to answer this question since we never have close to a large enough sample size:

  • Operational models are constantly changing with upgrades.  The current GFS is nothing like the version that was operational before Jan 2015.
  • No two storms are alike.
I do think that models tend to go overboard a little bit with these really dynamic events with significant nonlinear feedback processes.   That's why it's much better for your sanity to follow the 500mb evolution at leads rather than worrying about exact SLP placement, QPF totals, etc.

Thanks. That makes good sense.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...