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January Banter Thread #2


WxUSAF

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I hope it's safe to ask this in banter, but would anyone be willing to provide just a rough overview of how the new euro looks for Delmarva? Dover-salisbury area. Thanks in advance to anyone willing to inform ☺

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Based on weenie snow maps its 25" for Dover and 14" for Salisbury.

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Basically, it's just two different ways to grandmother's house, but that's where it would end up. Epic storm potential from any angle.

 

Different subject but I was reading up on the W-J storm (which was Jan 27-29 1772) and apparently the winter had been "the most pacific in memory" before that hit.

 

At this stage I feel like 12-18 inches is a lock for much of this forum and 18 to 36 is still on the table.

 

I believe the GFS may be the better solution (with considerable support from GGEM) simply because the upper low position interacting with the very warm offshore water looks more plausibly modelled while the Euro wants us to believe that this first hint of winter for the southeast would cut in before reaching the coast. In some other set-up maybe, but this year? Ground is warm down there, any small amount of warm advection will hold serve and the arctic frontal boundary will want to find snow cover, no matter how thin or sketchy, laid down by the earlier wave. So that makes the GFS solution look more plausible.

 

However, on timing I tend to trust the Euro so perhaps the GFS but slowed by 3-6h? Full moon is about 0130z Sunday 24th. There is no rush getting the energy to the ignition point. When the energy arrives (around 12z Saturday) explosive development will combine with the q.s. frontal boundary just offshore (and into VAB and ne NC) to create exceptional snowfall rates. The surface low is going to try to ride the thermocline all the way to Nantucket, upper winds may not quite allow that but you can picture the distortion in the surface flow created by those 20-24 C waters off the coast.

 

Would go with a 2:1 GFS-ECM compromise, ignore the UKie and bombs away.

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I hope it's safe to ask this in banter, but would anyone be willing to provide just a rough overview of how the new euro looks for Delmarva? Dover-salisbury area. Thanks in advance to anyone willing to inform ☺

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk

 

Salisbury gets about 14" of snow on about 2.8" QPF so more mixing by you.  Dover gets about 2' on 2.6" QPF so you look to stay primarily all snow (haven't checked temp maps though).  :)

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Salisbury gets about 14" of snow on about 2.8" QPF so more mixing by you.

Makes sense, unless it's a southern slider every storm mixes to some degree. We mixed in 96,03, and both Feb 2010 storms(don't remember if we did December 09). The 96 snowfall map from Wakefield looks a lot like model output for this storm, but shifted 75 miles southeast with the axis of heaviest snow.

I live well inland so not too concerned for me and mine, but people in downtown Lewes, parts of Rehoboth, Indian river, millsboro and oak orchard are gonna flood pretty badly if the wind projections come to fruition.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk

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