Kmlwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 https://twitter.com/dougkammerer/status/689569737739632640Seems like Doug Kammerer thinks king Euro will be right...if that's what he means by "changes coming at 0z" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ravens thinks NE Maryland is on its own island and weather only effects it. It's because he lives in Bel Air which is at the southern end of NE MD. He wants to have the most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ravens thinks NE Maryland is on its own island and weather only effects it. He gets me all excited when he says stuff like "NE MD getting crushed", and then I check and it's 2" over a 6hr period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 https://twitter.com/dougkammerer/status/689569737739632640 Seems like Doug Kammerer thinks king Euro will be right...if that's what he means by "changes coming at 0z" Sounds like he is saying there will be a big shift in all the 0Z models to follow the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 https://twitter.com/dougkammerer/status/689569737739632640 Seems like Doug Kammerer thinks king Euro will be right...if that's what he means by "changes coming at 0z" Veronica Johnson on WTOP a few hours ago was already talking about changes to the forecast, and the snow being a Saturday event instead of a Friday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I can feel the angst from one of the posters in the NW burbs because they might not get two feet. Those NW guys are the worst....SW is where it's at!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Veronica Johnson on WTOP a few hours ago was already talking about changes to the forecast, and the snow being a Saturday event instead of a Friday event. LOL..people at DC local stations hate snow. They also hug the RPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
66degreesnorth Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 https://twitter.com/dougkammerer/status/689569737739632640 Seems like Doug Kammerer thinks king Euro will be right...if that's what he means by "changes coming at 0z" This goes along with my initial question. Is it weeniesh of me to assume 18z GFS came out later than 12z euro and thus is capturing the latest data, etc. I take it from your answer I'm only being part-weenie by making that assumption.Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Wow we all get crushed. I like the fact that the Gfs is spitting out crazy totals for many of our areas that all too often are screwed in marginal set ups. Add the wild card of banding and there will be crazy lollies of historic numbers in the entire region that the models can't pick up on at this range. I remember in 2010 elkridge reported 40 inches or something crazy like that. Unlimited potential with convective banding. I live just across the Mason Dixon, have my office in Baltimore, and second office in SW DC. All three of my locations win. Epic rackage for the whole region!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Actually, after seeing the WxBell snow map, my guess was pretty spot-on. The GFS slashed my snow total from 23" at 12z, to 18" at 18z, and moved the uber 3ft+ jackpot south a bit. So, I take it back, me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Issuing a 5 post per day watch on PDIII Euro or die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Sounds like he is saying there will be a big shift in all the 0Z models to follow the Euro. The only issue I have with him is that a couple years ago he was really downplaying some accumulations for a storm when it was very clear it would be big (like a day before the event). Then he upped his totals going into the storm and congratulated NBC for "having the best lock on it" or something like that after the storm. TV mets have a tough job tho especially with social media out there. I'm not sure the models becoming widespread to the public eye has been the best thing heh Veronica Johnson on WTOP a few hours ago was already talking about changes to the forecast, and the snow being a Saturday event instead of a Friday event. OT but I've always wondered if Veronica and Tom were ticked that a new guy got the lead position over them when Bob Ryan left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This goes along with my initial question. Is it weeniesh of me to assume 18z GFS came out later than 12z euro and thus is capturing the latest data, etc. I take it from your answer I'm only being part-weenie by making that assumption. Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk Well they are different models. So yes your point is valid. But the Euro uses 4DVAR and is generally known as a more "robust" model. So while your interpretation has a lot of truth to it...it's only a piece of the puzzle. dtk is a great model knowledge person since he works with them! Look out for his posts! I don't think it's unreasonable to think there could be a shift a bit south at 0z but I'm not sure it'll be a large leap or anything like that. I've never been a fan of "forecasting the next model output" though. It turns into a bit too much of a "forecasting a forecast for a forecast model" kind of thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looked ahead to the storm obs thread.... mapgirl: OMFG. It's dumping outside. 14" already sparky: I just brushed off 15" with the broom. It's dumping. losetoa6: Meh. Only 20" with 1"/hr rates You can book this, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Nobody in zugzwang in here today lol. Good luck, guys. Know you've been waiting a while for the big one. Looks like an absolute MA mauler. Jeb walks galore, buried fire hydrants, snow farms lasting till September, biblical reckoning incoming. Ice planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The only issue I have with him is that a couple years ago he was really downplaying some accumulations for a storm when it was very clear it would be big (like a day before the event). Then he upped his totals going into the storm and congratulated NBC for "having the best lock on it" or something like that after the storm. TV mets have a tough job tho especially with social media out there. I'm not sure the models becoming widespread to the public eye has been the best thing heh OT but I've always wondered if Veronica and Tom were ticked that a new guy got the lead position over them when Bob Ryan left. Veronica Johnson is awful Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The only issue I have with him is that a couple years ago he was really downplaying some accumulations for a storm when it was very clear it would be big (like a day before the event). Then he upped his totals going into the storm and congratulated NBC for "having the best lock on it" or something like that after the storm. TV mets have a tough job tho especially with social media out there. I'm not sure the models becoming widespread to the public eye has been the best thing heh OT but I've always wondered if Veronica and Tom were ticked that a new guy got the lead position over them when Bob Ryan left. Well it was never going to be Tom. And Veronica was still kind of a newbie at that point; we didn't really trust her. Bob Ryan's biggest triumph was being the first to call for the Blizzard of '96 Friday evening 11 pm newscast. He called for a top-3 snowstorm in the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GOAT OR BUST Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Veronica Johnson is awful Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I've always been partial to channel 9. HOWEVER, ever since I was a member of Eastern and now here I don't really pay much attention to any of them. I realize there's the whole "lots of uncertainty" stuff we all go through - but the views here are certainly more balanced IMO. I'd rather get my info from our big "family" on here than a TV met that is worried about busting to his/her viewers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looked ahead to the storm obs thread.... mapgirl: OMFG. It's dumping outside. 14" already sparky: I just brushed off 15" with the broom. It's dumping. losetoa6: Meh. Only 20" with 1"/hr rates You can book this, btw. I can guarantee that will happen. I would bet my first born on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Does anyone know if Angela from CWG is married? I didn't see a ring on the Facebook thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Does anyone know if Angela from CWG is married? I didn't see a ring on the Facebook thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Veronica Johnson on WTOP a few hours ago was already talking about changes to the forecast, and the snow being a Saturday event instead of a Friday event. Tom T here went completely off the Euro almost exact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Tom T here went completely off the Euro almost exact. How much did he say we were getting?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Issuing a 5 post per day watch on PDIII Euro or die Like five more posts from the guy and he doesn't get it or can't read a map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Sounds like he is saying there will be a big shift in all the 0Z models to follow the Euro. I am not sure how he can make that call at this point. Just WAG to market to his followers. Overall all models are pointing to major winter storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I can feel the angst from one of the posters in the NW burbs because they might not get two feet. Those NW guys are the worst....SW is where it's at!! Not this NW burb resident. If this all shifts South I would be perfectly fine with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If you compare the last 4 runs of the GFS it is steadfast with our area being the bullseye, you gotta like that consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Models have been spitting out 16+ since 3 days ago and the first TV map I see says "6-12"" wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If you compare the last 4 runs of the GFS it is steadfast with our area being the bullseye, you gotta like that consistency. yup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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