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January Banter Thread #2


WxUSAF

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https://twitter.com/dougkammerer/status/689569737739632640

Seems like Doug Kammerer thinks king Euro will be right...if that's what he means by "changes coming at 0z"

Veronica Johnson on WTOP a few hours ago was already talking about changes to the forecast, and the snow being a Saturday event instead of a Friday event. 

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https://twitter.com/dougkammerer/status/689569737739632640

Seems like Doug Kammerer thinks king Euro will be right...if that's what he means by "changes coming at 0z"

This goes along with my initial question. Is it weeniesh of me to assume 18z GFS came out later than 12z euro and thus is capturing the latest data, etc. I take it from your answer I'm only being part-weenie by making that assumption.

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Wow we all get crushed. I like the fact that the Gfs is spitting out crazy totals for many of our areas that all too often are screwed in marginal set ups. Add the wild card of banding and there will be crazy lollies of historic numbers in the entire region that the models can't pick up on at this range. I remember in 2010 elkridge reported 40 inches or something crazy like that. Unlimited potential with convective banding. I live just across the Mason Dixon, have my office in Baltimore, and second office in SW DC. All three of my locations win. Epic rackage for the whole region!!!

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Sounds like he is saying there will be a big shift in all the 0Z models to follow the Euro.

 

The only issue I have with him is that a couple years ago he was really downplaying some accumulations for a storm when it was very clear it would be big (like a day before the event). Then he upped his totals going into the storm and congratulated NBC for "having the best lock on it" or something like that after the storm. TV mets have a tough job tho especially with social media out there. I'm not sure the models becoming widespread to the public eye has been the best thing heh ;)

 

Veronica Johnson on WTOP a few hours ago was already talking about changes to the forecast, and the snow being a Saturday event instead of a Friday event. 

 

OT but I've always wondered if Veronica and Tom were ticked that a new guy got the lead position over them when Bob Ryan left. 

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This goes along with my initial question. Is it weeniesh of me to assume 18z GFS came out later than 12z euro and thus is capturing the latest data, etc. I take it from your answer I'm only being part-weenie by making that assumption.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

 

Well they are different models. So yes your point is valid. But the Euro uses 4DVAR and is generally known as a more "robust" model. So while your interpretation has a lot of truth to it...it's only a piece of the puzzle. dtk is a great model knowledge person since he works with them! Look out for his posts!

I don't think it's unreasonable to think there could be a shift a bit south at 0z but I'm not sure it'll be a large leap or anything like that. I've never been a fan of "forecasting the next model output" though. It turns into a bit too much of a "forecasting a forecast for a forecast model" kind of thing ;)

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The only issue I have with him is that a couple years ago he was really downplaying some accumulations for a storm when it was very clear it would be big (like a day before the event). Then he upped his totals going into the storm and congratulated NBC for "having the best lock on it" or something like that after the storm. TV mets have a tough job tho especially with social media out there. I'm not sure the models becoming widespread to the public eye has been the best thing heh ;)

OT but I've always wondered if Veronica and Tom were ticked that a new guy got the lead position over them when Bob Ryan left.

Veronica Johnson is awful

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The only issue I have with him is that a couple years ago he was really downplaying some accumulations for a storm when it was very clear it would be big (like a day before the event). Then he upped his totals going into the storm and congratulated NBC for "having the best lock on it" or something like that after the storm. TV mets have a tough job tho especially with social media out there. I'm not sure the models becoming widespread to the public eye has been the best thing heh ;)

 

 

OT but I've always wondered if Veronica and Tom were ticked that a new guy got the lead position over them when Bob Ryan left. 

Well it was never going to be Tom. And Veronica was still kind of a newbie at that point; we didn't really trust her. 

Bob Ryan's biggest triumph was being the first to call for the Blizzard of '96 Friday evening 11 pm newscast. He called for a top-3 snowstorm in the DC area. 

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Veronica Johnson is awful

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I've always been partial to channel 9. HOWEVER, ever since I was a member of Eastern and now here I don't really pay much attention to any of them. I realize there's the whole "lots of uncertainty" stuff we all go through - but the views here are certainly more balanced IMO. I'd rather get my info from our big "family" on here than a TV met that is worried about busting to his/her viewers. 

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Looked ahead to the storm obs thread....

 

mapgirl: OMFG. It's dumping outside. 14" already

 

sparky: I just brushed off 15" with the broom. It's dumping.

 

losetoa6: Meh. Only 20" with 1"/hr rates

 

You can book this, btw.

:lmao:  I can guarantee that will happen. I would bet my first born on it.

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