Interstate Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Now we wait 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Tried to post the CWG article but for some reason I can't copy it from the post link to a new thread. Also, everyone get a grip, the upper system is still in the Pacific. Small variations are expected at these time ranges. Lay down that smack down Wes! And then there's the 12z eps in like 45 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Come on yall, it was getting boring with run after run of the same. We need some variety! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 good, then you'll stop posting this garbage. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Does anyone have evidence 'better sampling' changes anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Whoever comes up with the best fallacy to discount the Euro solution gets a free drink on me next conference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 god damn euro took away my 25" of digital snow, that bastard. lol @ everyone freaking out. and thinking some of us are actually concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I don't want to bet against the Euro because it's solution is plausible but I remember some people saying that it's not as good within 3 days of the event. Maybe that is just BS though. All we can do is wait and see and it's going to be a long wait until the 00z run. If the 0Z GFS still shows what it showed at 12z and the other models that come out before the Euro remain steadfast then we should be okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Tried to post the CWG article but for some reason I can't copy it from the post link to a new thread. Also, everyone get a grip, the upper system is still in the Pacific. Small variations are expected at these time ranges. if that's the case, then all the model runs to this point were a waste of time. my point is that 72 hours, the forecasting reliability goes up a lot, so today's run are really important. Or the Euro is so good that other models are a waste of time? This will be interesting to see. If GFS follows suit, well...we will just depend on the "north trend". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Does anyone have evidence 'better sampling' changes anything? Certainly not when the greatest influence to this thing going south is up in the Yukon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 How close to the Euro was the UKMET with the northern fringe? Not very close, similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 We are going to have to listen to three days of bull******* hallucinogenic justification for why the euro is not right. But it's right and were done You mad, bro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Does anyone have evidence 'better sampling' changes anything? Like we went over that 20 pages ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neff Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 if that's the case, then all the model runs to this point were a waste of time. my point is that 72 hours, the forecasting reliability goes up a lot, so today's run are really important. No. The model runs up to this point are merely an indication of the bigger picture. The minutia will not, CANnot be sorted out until everything is properly sampled. And even then, accuracy is merely improved. Not guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 everybody who gets off the bus won't be allowed back on. 100% violently agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 god damn euro took away my 25" of digital snow, that bastard. lol @ everyone freaking out. and thinking some of us are actually concerned. I'll take care of it for you. Don't worry you and little Mappy are going to have some fun in the snow! What a cutie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Come on yall, it was getting boring with run after run of the same. We need some variety!I was enjoying run after run of 2' forecasts thanks. I need a new hobby at times like this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Like we went over that 20 pages ago. Most modelers seem to say it doesn't change much of anything. I'm inclined to believe them but maybe there are cases. Given how data rich today's NWP is it seems it would be marginal change at most to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Speak for yourself, Randy. Seeing the same crushing run after run doesn't get old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Does anyone here have a job? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Most modelers seem to say it doesn't change much of anything. I'm inclined to believe them but maybe there are cases. Given how data rich today's NWP is it seems it would be marginal change at most to begin with. Even if it does change things, the shortwave responsible is still offshore anyway. It's like 500 miles west of Oregon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Speak for yourself, Randy. Seeing the same crushing run after run doesn't get old. People were worried about the GFS with only 1.5" liquid to the SW yesterday.. now no one is worried about the Euro. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 People were worried about the GFS with only 1.5" liquid to the SW yesterday.. now no one is worried about the Euro. lol. Both should get the equal amount of worry and consideration, but they are more wobbles than anything imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Does anyone here have a job? I'm in surgery right now so trying to juggle a triple bypass while checking on the weather is becoming complicated but I'm managing to pull it off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 remember in Feb 2010 when stuff happened and things did stuff? Its doing it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Euro and gfs about 6 hours apart right now. I'd lean earlier. Roads prob start going downhill fast before noon. I was hoping for a slow and graual build up during the day, so my relief could get me outta there at 4pm. Fingers now being crossed that the road crews pretreat and keep things moving until they can't keep up. I'd start laying the ground work for a sudden cold now. Tell your boss you have the chills, sniffles and sweats. Lolz, not sure that'll fly since I just had the bug a couple weeks ago. Went ahead and stopped at grocery store after my DDS appt this morning, so I'm stocked up on meal fixin's and TV freaking dinners in case I find myself holding down the damn work fort for 24+ hours... ( saying little prayer that I get to come home and enjoy the winter circus.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 People were worried about the GFS with only 1.5" liquid to the SW yesterday.. now no one is worried about the Euro. lol. It certainly seems like a possibility, but history would say southern and central VA are not getting 30"+ from this storm. At least I don't recall it ever happening before. And we've seen late north trends so many times. The thing that is most troubling about the Euro is not getting much from the front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Most modelers seem to say it doesn't change much of anything. I'm inclined to believe them but maybe there are cases. Given how data rich today's NWP is it seems it would be marginal change at most to begin with. This is another great learning event. We have mets on this board whose opinions differ. I would say right now it is a wobble, maybe not in the direction we want it to go in...and Wes is not perturbed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Speak for yourself, Randy. Seeing the same crushing run after run doesn't get old. Yes but for us in northern-central AA, both the GFS and EC solutions are win-win. Even with a more suppressed system, the hope is to get that typical bump in QPF east of 95 as the system deepens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Time to argue over the 87 hr SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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