CAPE Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Eh, that's a risk. You would need to be 100% sure before you go. Last-minute shifts and dynamics could easily move the bullseye near your backyard. Yup I will watch the trends and make the call on Thursday. Should be pretty much locked in by then. NW of DC seems to be the sweet spot for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Kind of a disconnect between our weenie world and the CWG. They give DCA an 80% chance of <8" of snow during this event. I suspect their caution is due to the event being 96 hours away, our climatology, and the fact that the public only hears the upper range of any forecast. Yeah, I think they're being way too bearish on that. I'd put the odds of 8" at around 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yeah, I think they're being way too bearish on that. I'd put the odds of 8" at around 50%. I think as a collective they mostly don't like snow. Their readership certainly doesn't. Most average Joe's think snow is a huge pain in the ass. Ian and Matt are an exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Lol para GFS has 25"+ imby. I might stay home if that could verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 No one should feel bad for Mattie, he wouldn't care if any of us missed out, he's the biggest IMBY snow guy here Love you Mattie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yea, I saw after posting that it was around 10am. I feel though that the models up to that time had pretty good consistency and agreement, especially at this range. And I really like Mt. Holly a lot. Thanks for the updated discussion from them. No problem. And there was still a fair amount of spread in the ops as of 0z. Ens were closer. And Mt Holly is very good imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It is going to have to break at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 "only" about 90 hours to tip-off. kidding, that's still a long way, but does sound better than 100 and whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 From Mt. Holly discussion. I don't agree with their analysis concerning consistency and model agreement. They also seem to feel that the short wave needs to be sampled better. Thought dtk might like to comment. Well if it's not being sampled by our upper air network, how do we even know it's there? They are entitled to their opinion, but the main issues regarding consistency and ensemble spread is related to the lead time we are talking about, nonlinearity, error growth, and fundamental atmospheric predictability...not the observing system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Well...I just e-mailed my travel agent to see if there's any way she can tentatively reserve and hold a seat on a Thursday night flight. No guarantee that people will flee the meeting like the proverbial rats, but if I can get approval to get out, I want to be prepared! I should know more tomorrow afternoon or Wednesday morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If you want mega QPF, you are gonna need to flirt with the mix line. Just a fact of life for those in the cities and nearby suburbs (myself included). I have many very fond memories of huge storms over the years that had a period with sleet or at least snow grains and blobs and it didn't diminish things at all. Usually the sleet and snow blobs are coming down so intense it is crazy anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Stormtracker's LOW (List of Weenie Worries) Here, I will chronicle the list of worries as they change every 6 hours. 12z Monday: SUPPRESSION!! 18z Monday: AMPED! R/S worry. 0z Tuesday:? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'm only expecting 2" in Ric...... Me thinks there are gonna be ALOT of unhappy forum members to our north ,that are going to be expecting 12+, that fall waaaaaay short. Cliff jumpers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 All I know is that the southern line of accumulating snow has moved north as well as the heaviest snowfall. A 30 mile shift west with the low and we're talking about a Hiroshima level explosion of weenies. I for one will spontaneously combust. I'm scared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordhawke Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Stormtracker's LOW (List of Weenie Worries) Here, I will chronicle the list of worries as they change every 6 hours. 12z Monday: SUPPRESSION!! 18z Monday: AMPED! R/S worry. 0z Tuesday:? 06z Tuesday: Profit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 How long until the board crashes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Zwyx seems a little worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 How long until the board crashes? It just did for a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 There are only 1,450 members online which is less than half our largest amount ever. I'm surprised it is having trouble with that few members online. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It just did for a minute. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Just popping in to wish everyone good luck down here. Models spitting out some ridiculous clown maps for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Well...I just e-mailed my travel agent to see if there's any way she can tentatively reserve and hold a seat on a Thursday night flight. No guarantee that people will flee the meeting like the proverbial rats, but if I can get approval to get out, I want to be prepared! I should know more tomorrow afternoon or Wednesday morning... Good luck mattie, I'm rooting for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 There are only 1,450 members online which is less than half our largest amount ever. I'm surprised it is having trouble with that few members online. It went down briefly for me a few times last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It went down briefly for me a few times last night. That sucks, this is the first time i have had a problem. I wish they had done the major upgrade already. I have a feeling the next few days will be a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Zwyx seems a little worried He is always worried but with a good reason of mixing. Mixing is also a concern for me but models are still spitting out 18-24" for my area. I am a tiny bit worried that things could still go wrong but overall I'm fairly happy with where we stand right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 You would think that the NATIONAL Center for Environmental Prediction would care that their model site stinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Loop of run is going into the archives. That little backside jackpot is the best part. Tell me more kind sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 You would think that the NATIONAL Center for Environmental Prediction would care that their model site stinks. Yeah, the MAG page is pretty rough. Though, to be fair, which of the operational centers has a really good model page with nice graphics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yeah, the MAG page is pretty rough. Though, to be fair, which of the operational centers has a really good model page with nice graphics? I don't really understand. It's always worked well in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yeah, the MAG page is pretty rough. Though, to be fair, which of the operational centers has a really good model page with nice graphics? Canada has the best site but the worst model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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