isohume Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It's happened twice today. Not including Mappy's joke. Every event is the same old circle on these boards. Not sure why dtk cares, but that's cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 F*ck F*CK F*CKF*CKF*CK F*CKF*CKF*CKF*CKF*CKF*CKF*CKF*CKF*CK F***************CK I am sick for you!!!! UGH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Plenty of mets say it. More data is good in general I think but tons of obs plus tons more satellite data etc. may be cases where a shortwave being fully sampled changed something major but seems limited if so. Plus disaggregating from simply getting better forecasts in closing... This times a billion. People always equate consensus building in numerical guidance as the event nears to "better sampling" while ignoring the fact that the lead time is shorter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Every event is the same old circle on these boards. Not sure why dtk cares, but that's cool. I'm glad he cares. It's all great learning material. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Every event is the same old circle on these boards. Not sure why dtk cares, but that's cool. Eh, I don't care that much if people want to throw around random anecdotes and remain ignorant. I just figure that most weather hobbyists/enthusiasts actually want to learn how these things work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Eh, I don't care that much if people want to throw around random anecdotes and remain ignorant. I just figure that most weather hobbyists/enthusiasts actually want to learn how these things work. That's cool...but I've noticed teaching topics of uncertainty, guidance, and model error generally seem to be forgotten in favor of explicit model snowfall maps and deterministic qpf responses, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Every event is the same old circle on these boards. Not sure why dtk cares, but that's cool. Someone has to battle our urban myths. Eh, I don't care that much if people want to throw around random anecdotes and remain ignorant. I just figure that most weather hobbyists/enthusiasts actually want to learn how these things work. I used to believe in the Goat Man, so I'm glad that you try to keep us straight. Now, Cry Baby Bridge is some real sheeet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 was looking forward to a nice day off, model watching, and weenie-ing out. Then I remembered I have a toddler. Finally went down for a nap. What'd I miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I am sick for you!!!! UGH! Just be sure to drive-by post some PA deck pics of stacks of glittering dendrites and we'll call it even! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 was looking forward to a nice day off, model watching, and weenie-ing out. Then I remembered I have a toddler. Finally went down for a nap. What'd I miss? The Parallel Euro gave us a really big scare but the operational held serve. The admins are using the distribution terms at the pay sites to force DT to stop posting the euro snow maps and piss him off... Once he gets pissed off and leaves, Ian will be allowed to post them again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'd like to thank everyone (and all the models) for the entertainment over the past day. Popped something behind my knee yesterday afternoon and have been laid up, but you guys have provided hours of welcome distraction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Kind of a disconnect between our weenie world and the CWG. They give DCA an 80% chance of <8" of snow during this event. I suspect their caution is due to the event being 96 hours away, our climatology, and the fact that the public only hears the upper range of any forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The Parallel Euro gave us a really big scare but the operational held serve. The admins are using the distribution terms at the pay sites to force DT to stop posting the euro snow maps and piss him off... Once he gets pissed off and leaves, Ian will be allowed to post them again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The biggest 18z GFS run has started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The biggest 18z GFS run has started After seeing the para, I dont care. Happy hour has commenced, without the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Kind of a disconnect between our weenie world and the CWG. They give DCA an 80% chance of <8" of snow during this event. I suspect their caution is due to the event being 96 hours away, our climatology, and the fact that the public only hears the upper range of any forecast.Seems bearish but I'm not in the loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 It'll be interesting to see if these high precipitation amounts verify. In 2009/2010 the NAM spit out huge amounts of snow (50" for our area). The resolution of today's global models may be approaching the resolution the NAM had in 2009/2010. Could that contribute to a high bias or is the NAM's high bias primarily due to its convective parameterization? or maybe we have a HECS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 mattie g - feel so bad for you. We need to make the next one happen for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 From Mt. Holly discussion. I don't agree with their analysis concerning consistency and model agreement. They also seem to feel that the short wave needs to be sampled better. Thought dtk might like to comment. "FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THROUGH THIS PERIOD, A SURFACE LOW ANDUPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TOWARDSOUR REGION. A FEW THINGS TO NOTE WITH THIS EVENT HOWEVER, RUN TORUN CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT VERY GOOD. THE UPPERLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STILLWELL OFF THE WEST COAST AND THUS HASN`T BEEN WELL SAMPLED BY THEUPPER AIR NETWORK (HOPEFULLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS TUESDAYNIGHT/WEDNESDAY WE`LL START TO SEE A BIT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT).ALSO COMPLICATING THE ISSUE IS THAT THERE LOOKS TO BE A SPLIT FLOWPATTERN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH CAN BE A CHALLENGING PATTERNFOR MODELS TO RESOLVE." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 From Mt. Holly discussion. I don't agree with their analysis concerning consistency and model agreement. They also seem to feel that the short wave needs to be sampled better. Thought dtk might like to comment. "FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THROUGH THIS PERIOD, A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TOWARDS OUR REGION. A FEW THINGS TO NOTE WITH THIS EVENT HOWEVER, RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT VERY GOOD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STILL WELL OFF THE WEST COAST AND THUS HASN`T BEEN WELL SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK (HOPEFULLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WE`LL START TO SEE A BIT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT). ALSO COMPLICATING THE ISSUE IS THAT THERE LOOKS TO BE A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH CAN BE A CHALLENGING PATTERN FOR MODELS TO RESOLVE." Thats old- from this morning. Update soon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 My updated point and click forecast (Mount Holly) is pretty darn nice even for here, but if even if I get a foot with a period of mixed in the middle, if I can travel and get to ground zero, I think I might do it. I want to be in the middle of a historic blizzard. I am off Friday, so as long as I can make it back by Sunday night (lol), I may go for ground zero. Has to be a cool place though, with pubs I can walk to. Harpers Ferry maybe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ok, tell me if you think I'm being unreasonable or a weenie. I see this tweet saying "major snow is possible. All rain is possible as well" IMO, that conveys a sense that the model solutions have shown a snowy solution for DC just as often as a rainy one - which is certainly inaccurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 mattie g - feel so bad for you. We need to make the next one happen for you. Thanks, man. Yesterday, I saw a few hours of flakes that mostly melted on contact, so that should hold me over for a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ok, tell me if you think I'm being unreasonable or a weenie. I see this tweet saying "major snow is possible. All rain is possible as well" IMO, that conveys a sense that the model solutions have shown a snowy solution for DC just as often as a rainy one - which is certainly inaccurate. Anyone can tweet anything...why do you give a sh*t? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Updated AFD from Mount Holly on the potential- FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS LIKELY, BUT NOT YETCERTAIN.DETERMINISTIC DETAILS ARE IN THE FORECAST, BUT TIMING HEAVIEST PCPN,AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN AND THE AMOUNTS, AS WELL AS THE RAIN SNOWLINE AND STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COASTS STILL REMAIN WITHA VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES. THIS MESSAGE ONLY SERVES NOTICE THAT APOTENT EVENT CONTINUES TO LOOM AND THOUGHT SHOULD BE GIVEN AS TOMITIGATING ACTIONS SHOULD OUR FORECAST REMAIN SIMILARLY ADVERSEWHEN ISSUED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT WILL FORM THIS SYSTEM IS STILL IN THEEASTERN PACIFIC AND THUS HASN`T BEEN WELL SAMPLED BY THE NORTHAMERICAN UPPER AIR NETWORK (HOPEFULLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS TUESDAYNIGHT/WEDNESDAY WE`LL START TO SEE MORE SOLID MODEL INTENSITY ANDTRACKING AGREEMENT).THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION, BOTH SNOW AND RAIN.WE DONT WANT TO PLACE TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS AND SNOW RAINLINES AT THIS TIME BUT WE THINK THE HIGH (70 TO 90 PCT) CONFIDENCEWPC PROBABILITY FOR FROZEN QPF GREATER THAN 1/4 INCH IS A VERYGOOD STARTING POINT AND ITS CONSISTENTLY EXPANDED AND INCREASEDFROM 24 HOURS AGO. THAT MEANS THE SNOW/RAIN LINE PROBABLY MIGRATINGNORTHWARD FROM THE DELMARVA SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING,POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER NORTH THAN I-95, BEFORE EVENTUALLY COLLAPSINGBACK TO THE COASTS.NORTHEAST TO NORTH WIND GUSTS 25 TO 40 MPH...STRONGEST ALONG THECOAST WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR EVEN HIGHER GUSTS.12Z/18 GEFS HAS -5 TO -6 850 MB ENE INFLOW SATURDAY MORNING WITH250 WINDS -2SD AS THE FLOW 700 MB-200MB WEAKENS WITHIN THEMODELED DEVELOPING UPPER LOW. A LARGE 200M 12 HR HFC DEVELOPS NEARTHE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SATURDAY THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD. BY THE WAY,IF THIS CLOSED LOW DOES NOT DEVELOP AT 500MB, A WEAKER FURTHERSOUTH SYSTEM WOULD RESULT.SNOW AMOUNT GRAPHICS FOR THIS STORM INCLUDING PROBABILITIES OF VARIOUSAMOUNTS WILL NOT POST UNTIL BETWEEN 330 AND 5 AM WEDNESDAY (INCLUSIVETHROUGH A SMALL PART OF THE STORM-DAY 3, WHICH ENDS 12Z SATURDAY).A MORE COMPLETE SNOW FALL FORECAST PACKAGE WILL POST BETWEEN 330 PMAND 5 PM WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Hope someone is archiving these model runs. They are pretty much textbook. Once this gets into NAM and RGEM range I would expect some really outrageous 3"+ precip totals to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 My updated point and click forecast (Mount Holly) is pretty darn nice even for here, but if even if I get a foot with a period of mixed in the middle, if I can travel and get to ground zero, I think I might do it. I want to be in the middle of a historic blizzard. I am off Friday, so as long as I can make it back by Sunday night (lol), I may go for ground zero. Has to be a cool place though, with pubs I can walk to. Harpers Ferry maybe.. Eh, that's a risk. You would need to be 100% sure before you go. Last-minute shifts and dynamics could easily move the bullseye near your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Thats old- from this morning. Update soon.. Yea, I saw after posting that it was around 10am. I feel though that the models up to that time had pretty good consistency and agreement, especially at this range. And I really like Mt. Holly a lot. Thanks for the updated discussion from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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