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Jan 22-23 Winter Storm Event..."The Middle Tennessee Mauler"


Carvers Gap

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Definitely a warm nose up the Valley.  Prob rain in Chatt, mix in Knoxville, snow w/ some mix in TRI.  Heights crash as the low slips by.  When this switches over is the question for the eastern Valley. 

 

How does the warm nose look in my area? I'm normally not as prone to get effects from it. Today it never even appeared like it might sleet or mix at any point.

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Carver, when you say North of I40, does that include Halls?

 

Knoxville in general has been at the southern edge of some nice totals.  Most models have been pretty insistent in pushing warm air up the Valley.  Now, here is another interesting deal that folks in the eastern Valley know about who live right up against the mtns.  As the primary slides by it is bringing winds out of the east.  That creates a "chinook-like" issue w/ temps.  The air coming down the mtns compresses and warms.  So, there is a pretty good warm nose right up against the Apps in SE TN around hrs 54-60. 

 

edit:  Then, on the other side of the eastern Valley the cold air tends to bank up against the Plateau w/ an east or northeast wind.  So, one side of the eastern Valley at the same latitude can be ten degrees colder in that situation.  Mid 30s on the western side of the eastern Valley...mid 40s on the eastern side.   I see this in the southern half of the eastern Valley this run.

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How does the warm nose look in my area? I'm normally not as prone to get effects from it. Today it never even appeared like it might sleet or mix at any point.

 

Looking like mid30s(34) is the highest I can find where you are.  Looks like 9-10" total for the first and second storms. 3" on this one and 7" for the next one.

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Looking like mid30s(34) is the highest I can find where you are.  Looks like 9-10" total for the first and second storms. 3" on this one and 7" for the next one.

 

I can live with that! Especially with 6 inches today. El Nino can deliver the goods when we get cooperation with blocking. Still a long ways to go to match winter of 1966 but this storm along with the current snow will get us close.

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Knoxville in general has been at the southern edge of some nice totals. Most models have been pretty insistent in pushing warm air up the Valley. Now, here is another interesting deal that folks in the eastern Valley know about who live right up against the mtns. As the primary slides by it is bringing winds out of the east. That creates a "chinook-like" issue w/ temps. The air coming down the mtns compresses and warms. So, there is a pretty good warm nose right up against the Apps in SE TN around hrs 54-60.

edit: Then, on the other side of the eastern Valley the cold air tends to bank up against the Plateau w/ an east or northeast wind. So, one side of the eastern Valley at the same latitude can be ten degrees colder in that situation. Mid 30s on the western side of the eastern Valley...mid 40s on the eastern side. I see this in the southern half of the eastern Valley this run.

That is very true. I've been burned by this scenario many times in my part of Greene County.

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I can live with that! Especially with 6 inches today. El Nino can deliver the goods when we get cooperation with blocking. Still a long ways to go to match winter of 1966 but this storm along with the current snow will get us close.

 

Just looking at trends...the snow axis in KY has seemed to sag south a bit over the past few Euro runs.  The southern edge of big snow which was once in northern KY is now right along the TN/KY border.  Foot totals just one county deep into KY where you are.  If anyone lives on the northern border from the western Valley eastward to NC...one has to feel pretty good.

 

Not talking to you on this point, John.  Most of us use the snow totals to catch trends in the modelling in terms of where the larger amounts tend to group.  Those totals can give clues as to what the atmosphere is doing.   The totals will definitely change between now and the event.  But the Euro is pretty locked on right now.  I have lived in Knoxville and Kingsport for a good chunk of my life.  For Knoxville to get hammered, I really prefer Miller A tracks.  In this case it is a bit of a hybrid A and B IMHO depending on which model you look at.  If we stay w/ this same pattern of a primary that hands of its energy to the coast, the primary probably needs to slide about 100-150 miles south of its current track and that is a big move this close to the event.  I would have to say at this point that the Euro corrected a tad north on this run in terms of temp profiles.  Maybe a degree or two.

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Just looking at trends...the snow axis in KY has seemed to sag south a bit over the past few Euro runs.  The southern edge of big snow which was once in northern KY is now right along the TN/KY border.  Foot totals just one county deep into KY where you are.  If anyone lives on the northern border from the western Valley eastward to NC...one has to feel pretty good.

 

Not talking to you on this point, John.  Most of us use the snow totals to catch trends in the modelling in terms of where the larger amounts tend to group.  Those totals can give clues as to what the atmosphere is doing.   The totals will definitely change between now and the event.  But the Euro is pretty locked on right now.  I have lived in Knoxville and Kingsport for a good chunk of my life.  For Knoxville to get hammered, I really prefer Miller A tracks.  In this case it is a bit of a hybrid A and B IMHO depending on which model you look at.  If we stay w/ this same pattern of a primary that hands of its energy to the coast, the primary probably needs to slide about 100-150 miles south of its current track and that is a big move this close to the event.  I would have to say at this point that Euro correct a tad north on this run in terms of temp profiles.  Maybe a degree or two.

 

That trend south has been ongoing on all the models for the past 24-36 hours. Keeps bringing the snow line down further south. It might not get much further though. It often comes down to knowing your own micro climate in East Tennessee and looking at how you did in similar past events.

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That is very true. I've been burned by this scenario many times in my part of Greene County.

 

You know big weather is on the table when waltrip shows up.  Greene County, the land of mountain wave events.  Hoping MathMet jumps in as we may see some this week - slight chance.  But those areas where those events happen, can have crazy temp swings as you well know. 

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Chris Bailey's first call map: (and he uses very large ranges in his snow forecasts :) )

 

 

I hope he's right. I want as much of the state as possible in this one and by looking at the ensemble members of each model, it appears that basically everyone is, though the southern areas don't look as good as they do in true miller A situations.

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I know Knoxville and areas in the central valley won't be in the bulls eye of heavy snow...but it does look we'll have some snow flying and at least some interesting winter weather coming in Friday and Saturday.  Rain changing to snow events are always enjoyable when some accumulation is involved.  Areas near the KY and VA border are going to have some fun for sure. 

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That trend south has been ongoing on all the models for the past 24-36 hours. Keeps bringing the snow line down further south. It might not get much further though. It often comes down to knowing your own micro climate in East Tennessee and looking at how you did in similar past events.

 

One would think that trend stopped w/ this run...but this storm is getting sampled better.  So, tonight's runs are really crucial.  For the Euro, really we only have three runs left before this is rolling.  0z, 12z, 0z.  Maybe just two before the short range models bring this into focus.  Now, I am a big Euro fan up until 72 hrs and then after that I am not sure the GFS or Euro have an advantage. 

 

But great trends for the Valley as a whole today.  This has the chance to be a great storm.  Blizzard warnings are already up in DC.  I want to see some folks in the Valley(either part of the horsehoe)  hit some nice totals as well.

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I know Knoxville and areas in the central valley won't be in the bulls eye of heavy snow...but it does look we'll have some snow flying and at least some interesting winter weather coming in Friday and Saturday.  Rain changing to snow events are always enjoyable when some accumulation is involved.  Areas near the KY and VA border are going to have some fun for sure. 

 

And anyone has lived in Knoxville for any period of time knows that sometimes the changeover is not well predicted.  Could be later or earlier.  How much snow do you all have on the ground?

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Knoxville in general has been at the southern edge of some nice totals.  Most models have been pretty insistent in pushing warm air up the Valley.  Now, here is another interesting deal that folks in the eastern Valley know about who live right up against the mtns.  As the primary slides by it is bringing winds out of the east.  That creates a "chinook-like" issue w/ temps.  The air coming down the mtns compresses and warms.  So, there is a pretty good warm nose right up against the Apps in SE TN around hrs 54-60. 

 

edit:  Then, on the other side of the eastern Valley the cold air tends to bank up against the Plateau w/ an east or northeast wind.  So, one side of the eastern Valley at the same latitude can be ten degrees colder in that situation.  Mid 30s on the western side of the eastern Valley...mid 40s on the eastern side.   I see this in the southern half of the eastern Valley this run.I never

I never knew this,thanks for sharing.This explains as i was just looking at the 925mb,there is one spot in the Valley with a +2 warm nose that is circled.I was wondering if it was some feed back issue.

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Carver, is there a chance for ZR in Knoxville? Maybe I can sled on some ice if we aren't going to get snow.

 

You know as heights crash in...who knows.  There is some serious air that bleeds northeast into the Valley as the primary slides by.  I am trying to remember which storm this was, but I used to live over on Lonas near Papermill in Knoxville.  I am thinking this was the 96' storm.  We had rain, snow, and then ice.  Stayed around for a while and my apartment started leaking.  Somebody needs to dig-up the records for what happened in Knoxville from an atmospheric standpoint during the 96 event.  Seems like this event will be snow, sleet or rain.  But w/ snowcover on the ground, models could be overestimating your starting temps.  Not trying to throw false hope out there.

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And anyone has lived in Knoxville for any period of time knows that sometimes the changeover is not well predicted.  Could be later or earlier.  How much snow do you all have on the ground?

 

I have about 2.5 inches of snow and sleet (6 miles east of Sevierville).  The roads are terrible.  Someone has just got stuck in front of my driveway.

 

And you are correct.  From experience, I've learned that with these dynamic, wound up systems, many times the changeover occurs earlier than forecast. Friday will be a very interesting day, indeed. 

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Long time lurker here.  Thanks for everyone's analysis on the upcoming storm.  I have a question.  Can anybody shed some light as to the snow totals for the  plateau area from Crossville down to Monteagle when the changeover occurs and about what time does the changeover happen?

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
213 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016

...THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS CANCELLED...

...A NEW WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

THE WINTRY MIX THAT PLAGUED MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLIER TODAY HAS NOW
MOVED EAST. ALTHOUGH MANY ROADS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS THROUGH THIS EVENING...NO ADDITIONAL SNOW OR ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>065-075-210300-
/O.NEW.KOHX.WS.A.0001.160122T1200Z-160123T1800Z/
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-BEDFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...ERIN...WAVERLY...
DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...
HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...
JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...FRANKLIN...
BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...WOODBURY...
SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...SHELBYVILLE
213 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...6 AM FRIDAY UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...SNOW ON ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
  TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

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Winter Storm Watch is posted by MRX for norther portions of the eastern Valley....look how long it lasts!  1/22 12AM to 1/24 4AM....  Not sure I have seen a WSW that runs for 52 hours.

.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN315 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016...WINTER WEATHER WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT AN ADDITIONALSTRONGER WINTER STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK....PRECIPITATION IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EASTAS THE UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA.SOME LIGHT SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLETHROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFFAFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE EXPECTED SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES...ANYPRECIPITATION LINGERING ON ROADS WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT...FURTHEREXASPERATING THE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS INTO THE MORNINGCOMMUTE ON THURSDAY.TNZ016-017-042-044-046-210415-/O.NEW.KMRX.WS.A.0001.160122T0500Z-160124T0900Z//O.CON.KMRX.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-160121T0600Z/HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-NORTHWEST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-NORTHWEST CARTER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...BRISTOL...GREENEVILLE...JOHNSON CITY...ELIZABETHTON315 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM ESTTHURSDAY......WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHLATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHLATE SATURDAY NIGHT.* EVENT...LIGHT SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PRODUCE SOME  ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ON TOP OF  THE HEAVIER SNOW AND ICE THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN. ANOTHER WINTER  STORM WILL BRING HEAVIER SNOWFALL THE REGION LATE THIS  WEEK...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUNDAY.* TIMING...WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE  DAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY TONIGHT. A SECOND WINTER STORM  WILL IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING  CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY ROADS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT  HOURS. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED...UNLESS IT IS ABSOLUTELY  NECESSARY!PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND/OR FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...BUTACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.  DRIVING AND WALKING MAYBE DIFFICULT ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. BE PREPARED FORSNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES. IF YOU MUSTTRAVEL...SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOURDESTINATION.A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS. FUTURE DRIVINGCONDITIONS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS...SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THELATEST FORECASTS.&&$$
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WSW for the Northern Plateau. 

 

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016

...WINTER WEATHER WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT AN ADDITIONAL
STRONGER WINTER STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK...

.PRECIPITATION IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA.
SOME LIGHT SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE EXPECTED SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES...ANY
PRECIPITATION LINGERING ON ROADS WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT...FURTHER
EXASPERATING THE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS INTO THE MORNING
COMMUTE ON THURSDAY.

TNZ012-013-035-210415-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WS.A.0001.160122T0500Z-160124T0900Z/
/O.CON.KMRX.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-160121T0300Z/
SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-MORGAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...WARTBURG
315 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

* EVENT...LIGHT SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PRODUCE SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ON TOP OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW AND ICE THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN. ANOTHER WINTER
STORM WILL BRING HEAVIER SNOWFALL THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUNDAY.

* TIMING...WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY THIS EVENING. A SECOND WINTER
STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY ROADS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED...UNLESS IT IS ABSOLUTELY
NECESSARY!
 
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