1234snow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hour 78 540dm closed upper low over Georgia. Coastal has taken over at GA/SC beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Sounds like it's gonna be similar to it's last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hour 90 534dm closed low over South Carolina/North Carolina. Wrap around part now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The upper level low rolls through north GA into the western Carolinas through 84. Quite a thumping wherever that goes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hour 96 coastal is east of Delaware. DC getting hit good. Wraparound has ended for us. The wraparound didn't seem as impressive as 12z but the whole run seemed slightly colder and south. Very much like 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ha. We need to organize the PBP business. I also have a PBP in the banter if you want to look. Good PBP in here as well. Going to try this again tomorrow night. Very Miller Aish since very little energy went west of the Apps. The GFS was on its own sending energy into KY. Almost all models have trended to what the Euro has shown for 11-12 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 bna .57 tys .46 tri...76 cha...25 csv .32 mem .32 Text off the euro,just a note WPC has the euro as the outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 bna .57 tys .46 tri...76 cha...25 csv .32 mem .32 Text off the euro,just a note WPC has the euro as the outlier Pretty sure wpc had it as the outlier at 12z. Not sure they will be able to justify it after tonight's runs. Guessing they probably change their tune tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Believe it was the outlier because it was further south,but i noticed the GEFS trended further south tonight also,so who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Pretty sure wpc had it as the outlier at 12z. Not sure they will be able to justify it after tonight's runs. Guessing they probably change their tune tomorrow. 3 days it should,models should have this tomorrow 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Pretty sure wpc had it as the outlier at 12z. Not sure they will be able to justify it after tonight's runs. Guessing they probably change their tune tomorrow. Right. All models have trended towards the Euro, especially in the SE portion of its run. Those in the MA probably see the Euro trending towards the GFS since it seems to have corrected northward in that area based on the one 12z run. But overall, the Euro has been driving the boat since day 1. Also, have to think that comma head fills in a bit more in subsequent runs. TN and KY sitting in a nice spot for someone to get decent amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'd like to see the GFS continue it's southern trend tomorrow too. After the event for tomorrow is heading out the picture should be very clear on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'd like to see the GFS continue it's southern trend tomorrow too. After the event for tomorrow is heading out the picture should be very clear on this one. Even if they spit the difference there should be a nice d-band passing through.For once i like where we are sitting at here.We wont get 2 ft but i'd take 3-4+ ",haven't seen that in years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM is slightly south and a bit colder further south as a result. So on the front side of the low heavy heavy snow is falling in Southern Kentucky and the border counties are seeing mixed precip. The warm nose is still there and does get rain up into the area but not as much or as long. The low also transferred later, giving big back side thump. It's slowly shifting towards a monster in Tennessee. 20 inch amounts appear just west of Clarksville. 00z vs 06z clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Nashville AFD. Their wet ground scenario supposedly cutting in half the accumulations is one of the most outlandish statements I've seen a wfo make. Unless it's much warmer than model guidence suggests, the rain isn't likely to be enough to melt the snow off of areas that get 2-4 inches. It rained 3 inches here last year into snow/sleet pack and it didn't come close to melting it away. No way snowfall rates that are strong enough to give you 4-6 inches of snow won't stick quickly, especailly since back side temps crash quickly below freezing. ..BUT THEY HAVE BOTH REVERTED BACK TO THE CENTER OFTHE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING DIRECTLY OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. COUPLEDWITH THE PERSISTENT QPF VALUES...A 10 TO 1 SNOW RATIO WOULD SUGGESTTHE POTENTIAL FOR 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. THE ONLY SAVING GRACE ISTHE AMOUNT OF RAIN WE SHOULD SEE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.THESE WET GROUNDS AND SLIGHT WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD INSULATE THEGROUND AND ALLOW THE FIRST PORTION OF THAT SNOW TO MELT AND NOTACCUMULATE. WE WILL CUT THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN HALF AND SAY THAT 1TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSSTHE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 MRX mentions no totals other than a good snowfall. LONG TERM...(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WE START OF WITH ABRIEF PERIOD OF NO PRECIPITATION...BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE ASA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERNUNITED STATES, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTOSATURDAY. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTHURSDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING AND DUE TO THE WINDS OUT OF THEWEST/SOUTH WE SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THAT IT WILL PRODUCE LIQUIDRAINFALL TO BEGIN. AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH ANDWEST OF US, WE WILL START TO GET WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLDERTEMPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. ALSO OF NOTE IS THAT AS THEWINDS IN OUR AREA START TO TURN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE 850MB JETSTRENGTHENS WE COULD SEE A MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT, IN THE TYPICALLOCATIONS, EARLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD AIR FUNNELSIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROMLIQUID PRECIPITATION TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING OF THETRANSITION TO SNOW AND THE AMOUNT OF SNOW EXPECTED IS DIFFICULT ATTHIS TIME DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN HOW TO HANDLE THE LOW AS ITEXITS OUR AREA. THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE LOW, WRAPPINGAROUND MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA, (LEADING TO HIGHER SNOWFALLTOTALS) AND MOVING THE LOW OUT MUCH SLOWER. THE ECMWF AT THIS TIMEHAS THE LOW BEING WEAKER, AND MOVES OUT A BIT FASTER, LEADING TOLESS SNOWFALL OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKEMUCH OF THE AREA WILL AT LEAST SEE A GOOD SNOWFALL, AND THE HIGHERTERRAIN AND PLACES IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE/SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COULDSEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SINCE THEIR TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FASTERAND SWITCH FROM RAIN TO SNOW MUCH QUICKER THAN PLACES IN THEVALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Nashville AFD. Their wet ground scenario supposedly cutting in half the accumulations is one of the most outlandish statements I've seen a wfo make. Unless it's much warmer than model guidence suggests, the rain isn't likely to be enough to melt the snow off of areas that get 2-4 inches. It rained 3 inches here last year into snow/sleet pack and it didn't come close to melting it away. No way snowfall rates that are strong enough to give you 4-6 inches of snow won't stick quickly, especailly since back side temps crash quickly below freezing. Wll, you have to consider the source. This is the same group that didnt issue a Winter Storm Warning until this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 12z NAM is just a little colder each time it runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Nashville,only goes out to 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The 12z RGEM is certainly the best run I've seen so far for us. It starts out precip as heavy snow in NETN. The low is closed off deeper and a little south of the other models. Here are the maps at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Blah...these models are doing nothing but knocking the central and west out of any anything,except the NAM if you wanna believe that 60 hrs out.Hope the euro sticks to something,GFS didnt show us but an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 New CMC is still looking pretty good. The low seems to be slightly more south and west this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm surprised that the GFS didn't blink, either it or the Euro will have to soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 CMC as mentioned is colder than the GFS. Dumping snow in Middle Tennessee at 54 with the lp about 100 miles south of the GFS position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm surprised that the GFS didn't blink, either it or the Euro will have to soon. The GFS blinked yesterday in the SE by going south w/ the Valley low. That said, the MA is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 CMC ends up being 4-6 for Middle Tn/Plateau, 8-10+ for SE KY, NE TN, SWVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The GFS blinked yesterday in the SE by going south w/ the Valley low. That said, the MA is another story. It's still the northern outlier of the modeling suites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 CMC ends up being 4-6 for Middle Tn/Plateau, 8-10+ for SE KY, NE TN, SWVA. How much of that (if any) is from today's storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 It's still the northern outlier of the modeling suites. The GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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