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Jan 22-23 Winter Storm Event..."The Middle Tennessee Mauler"


Carvers Gap

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Ha.  We need to organize the PBP business.  I also have a PBP in the banter if you want to look.  Good PBP in here as well.  Going to try this again tomorrow night.  Very Miller Aish since very little energy went west of the Apps.  The GFS was on its own sending energy into KY.  Almost all models have trended to what the Euro has shown for 11-12 runs. 

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Pretty sure wpc had it as the outlier at 12z. Not sure they will be able to justify it after tonight's runs. Guessing they probably change their tune tomorrow.

 

Right.  All models have trended towards the Euro, especially in the SE portion of its run.  Those in the MA probably see the Euro trending towards the GFS since it seems to have corrected northward in that area based on the one 12z run.  But overall, the Euro has been driving the boat since day 1.  Also, have to think that comma head fills in a bit more in subsequent runs.  TN and KY sitting in a nice spot for someone to get decent amounts. 

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I'd like to see the GFS continue it's southern trend tomorrow too. After the event for tomorrow is heading out the picture should be very clear on this one.

Even if they spit the difference there should be a nice d-band passing through.For once i like where we are sitting at here.We wont get 2 ft but i'd take 3-4+ ",haven't seen that in years

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NAM is slightly south and a bit colder further south as a result. So on the front side of the low heavy heavy snow is falling in Southern Kentucky and the border counties are seeing mixed precip. The warm nose is still there and does get rain up into the area but not as much or as long. The low also transferred later, giving big back side thump. 

 

It's slowly shifting towards a monster in Tennessee. 20 inch amounts appear just west of Clarksville. 

 

00z vs 06z clown

 

namconus_asnow_seus_29.png

 

namconus_asnow_seus_27.png

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Nashville AFD. Their wet ground scenario supposedly cutting in half the accumulations is one of the most outlandish statements I've seen a wfo make. Unless it's much warmer than model guidence suggests, the rain isn't likely to be enough to melt the snow off of areas that get 2-4 inches. It rained 3 inches here last year into snow/sleet pack and it didn't come close to melting it away. No way snowfall rates that are strong enough to give you 4-6 inches of snow won't stick quickly, especailly since back side temps crash quickly below freezing.

 

 

 

 

..BUT THEY HAVE BOTH REVERTED BACK TO THE CENTER OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING DIRECTLY OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. COUPLED
WITH THE PERSISTENT QPF VALUES...A 10 TO 1 SNOW RATIO WOULD SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. THE ONLY SAVING GRACE IS
THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WE SHOULD SEE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THESE WET GROUNDS AND SLIGHT WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD INSULATE THE
GROUND AND ALLOW THE FIRST PORTION OF THAT SNOW TO MELT AND NOT
ACCUMULATE. WE WILL CUT THE SNOW POTENTIAL IN HALF AND SAY THAT 1
TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID-STATE.
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MRX mentions no totals other than a good snowfall.

 

 

 

LONG TERM...(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WE START OF WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NO PRECIPITATION...BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING AND DUE TO THE WINDS OUT OF THE
WEST/SOUTH WE SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THAT IT WILL PRODUCE LIQUID
RAINFALL TO BEGIN. AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF US, WE WILL START TO GET WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLDER
TEMPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. ALSO OF NOTE IS THAT AS THE
WINDS IN OUR AREA START TO TURN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE 850MB JET
STRENGTHENS WE COULD SEE A MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT, IN THE TYPICAL
LOCATIONS, EARLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD AIR FUNNELS
IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM
LIQUID PRECIPITATION TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING OF THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW AND THE AMOUNT OF SNOW EXPECTED IS DIFFICULT AT
THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN HOW TO HANDLE THE LOW AS IT
EXITS OUR AREA. THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE LOW, WRAPPING
AROUND MORE MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA, (LEADING TO HIGHER SNOWFALL
TOTALS) AND MOVING THE LOW OUT MUCH SLOWER. THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME
HAS THE LOW BEING WEAKER, AND MOVES OUT A BIT FASTER, LEADING TO
LESS SNOWFALL OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL AT LEAST SEE A GOOD SNOWFALL, AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PLACES IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE/SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COULD
SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SINCE THEIR TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FASTER
AND SWITCH FROM RAIN TO SNOW MUCH QUICKER THAN PLACES IN THE
VALLEY.
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Nashville AFD. Their wet ground scenario supposedly cutting in half the accumulations is one of the most outlandish statements I've seen a wfo make. Unless it's much warmer than model guidence suggests, the rain isn't likely to be enough to melt the snow off of areas that get 2-4 inches. It rained 3 inches here last year into snow/sleet pack and it didn't come close to melting it away. No way snowfall rates that are strong enough to give you 4-6 inches of snow won't stick quickly, especailly since back side temps crash quickly below freezing.

Wll, you have to consider the source. This is the same group that didnt issue a Winter Storm Warning until this morning.

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