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Jan 22-23 Winter Storm Event..."The Middle Tennessee Mauler"


Carvers Gap

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I haven't seen the euro, but what has changed? This thing needed a huge shift to the south to help out everyone except the far NE corner of the state and west TN. Can't have a snow event in the valley if the lpc is in the state. Valley warm noses are extremely hard to scour out. Blizzard of 1996 resulted in only an inch of snow here.

 

The 6z GFS had the primary low over southwest KY if I remember correctly.  The 12z Euro is different in many ways from its earlier runs and very different than the American models...First, the primary is in central MS and struggles to even enter TN, though as tnweathernut points out, waa is part of the equation.  Second, the 12 Euro is about five degrees colder(not my own calculation, credit a forum member)in the TN Valley.  Third, it is much farther south w/ its snow axis when considering the MA region compared to previous runs.  It is very similar to the 12z JMA and 12z UKMET.  All three models have barely budged in there placement of a low over Hatteras over multiple runs.  I have a tendency to throw-out extreme solutions, but this storm has a "chance" to be very strong somewhere along the coast.  When I see Kocin begin to comment on storms, that gets my attention (see tnweathernut's post earlier).  This solution makes more sense compared to some other runs of the Euro as it doesn't transfer energy SE to the coast.  It basically slides across.  JMA and UKMET look very similar.  The 12z GFS moved its low placement south on its run.  So, there is model support for southward moves of the primary.  But make no mistake, the was a fairly big move by the 12z Euro...but still well within the range of its previous runs.  Again, right now model trends are as important as the ensembles.  I feel certain some will throw this run out as an outlier...but one can't really do that until future runs are included.  It may be a blip or the beginning of a trend.  I might also add that the 12z Euro seemed to "see" the comma head moisture that should be associated w/ a strong storm.  That increased totals over TN.

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GFS was further south this run with the primary. Didn't do us much good yet but Kentucky really gets whammed much further south that run due to that. The temperatures are about 5 degrees colder and the freezing line is about 100 miles south of where it was last night at this time.

 

If we an get that shift one more time by tomorrow evening everyone North of 40 gets 8+ inches.

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If we can get the track and trend to continue through tomorrow, we might all be very very golden. 

 

It's getting to a know your microclimate point of view and I'm thinking the first system leaving behind 2-4 inches of snow is making these model runs colder and colder. It's not easy to warm over super chilled ground and snow pack with a dynamic system to your South.

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If we can get the track and trend to continue through tomorrow, we might all be very very golden. 

 

It's getting to a know your microclimate point of view and I'm thinking the first system leaving behind 2-4 inches of snow is making these model runs colder and colder. It's not easy to warm over super chilled ground and snow pack with a dynamic system to your South.

 

f7FdEdG.jpg

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