Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 I haven't seen the euro, but what has changed? This thing needed a huge shift to the south to help out everyone except the far NE corner of the state and west TN. Can't have a snow event in the valley if the lpc is in the state. Valley warm noses are extremely hard to scour out. Blizzard of 1996 resulted in only an inch of snow here. The 6z GFS had the primary low over southwest KY if I remember correctly. The 12z Euro is different in many ways from its earlier runs and very different than the American models...First, the primary is in central MS and struggles to even enter TN, though as tnweathernut points out, waa is part of the equation. Second, the 12 Euro is about five degrees colder(not my own calculation, credit a forum member)in the TN Valley. Third, it is much farther south w/ its snow axis when considering the MA region compared to previous runs. It is very similar to the 12z JMA and 12z UKMET. All three models have barely budged in there placement of a low over Hatteras over multiple runs. I have a tendency to throw-out extreme solutions, but this storm has a "chance" to be very strong somewhere along the coast. When I see Kocin begin to comment on storms, that gets my attention (see tnweathernut's post earlier). This solution makes more sense compared to some other runs of the Euro as it doesn't transfer energy SE to the coast. It basically slides across. JMA and UKMET look very similar. The 12z GFS moved its low placement south on its run. So, there is model support for southward moves of the primary. But make no mistake, the was a fairly big move by the 12z Euro...but still well within the range of its previous runs. Again, right now model trends are as important as the ensembles. I feel certain some will throw this run out as an outlier...but one can't really do that until future runs are included. It may be a blip or the beginning of a trend. I might also add that the 12z Euro seemed to "see" the comma head moisture that should be associated w/ a strong storm. That increased totals over TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Quick note on the EPC...some members do place the primary into west TN. There is a grouping there. Also, here is an interesting difference from its earlier run. Minor but important. The secondary forms partly over SE GA. That allows the storm to really strengthen as it heads NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Paging Math/Met, we need a mountain wave assessment pronto! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GFS was further south this run with the primary. Didn't do us much good yet but Kentucky really gets whammed much further south that run due to that. The temperatures are about 5 degrees colder and the freezing line is about 100 miles south of where it was last night at this time. If we an get that shift one more time by tomorrow evening everyone North of 40 gets 8+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GFS at 00z yesterday evening on top, this evening on bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GFS at 00z yesterday evening on top, this evening on bottom. The 18z GEFS showed some great possibilities for the valley. Many of us are definitely still in play for a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Even with that the GFS spits out 3-6 additional inches across most of the state between hour 60 and 108 while around 50 miles north of me in London Kentucky they approach 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The 18z GEFS showed some great possibilities for the valley. Many of us are definitely still in play for a good one. Could you post the 18z GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 0z Canadian....nice trends 66h 72h 78h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Go ahead and go to Tropical Tidbits and look at the Canadian. You can thank me later. Post dose maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Good god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Who's staying up for the Doc? It'll be very interesting to see where the Euro/EPS goes at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 0z GFS from DT's FB page... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Nice looking mean snowfall by the 12z gefs, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Who has the Navgem? Definitely staying up for the Euro, unless I fall asleep on my keyboard. In that case, my wife will find me in the morning, and I will plug back in then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If we can get the track and trend to continue through tomorrow, we might all be very very golden. It's getting to a know your microclimate point of view and I'm thinking the first system leaving behind 2-4 inches of snow is making these model runs colder and colder. It's not easy to warm over super chilled ground and snow pack with a dynamic system to your South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 How about some cotton candy y'all? Woot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Who's staying up for the Doc? It'll be very interesting to see where the Euro/EPS goes at this point. I'm here lurking as usual...hoping Doc No is feeling cooperative! In response to the maps just posted above, as a co-worker of mine used to say: Great GOOGLY MOOGLY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The 0z gefs mean is very nice. Trending solidly toward the Euro. Primary never gets further north than northern AL/GA before transferring toward SC. Upper level support rakes across TN as the secondary explodes along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Who's staying up for the Doc? It'll be very interesting to see where the Euro/EPS goes at this point. Me me me. I have to work in the morning but I wouldn't miss this run for anything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If we can get the track and trend to continue through tomorrow, we might all be very very golden. It's getting to a know your microclimate point of view and I'm thinking the first system leaving behind 2-4 inches of snow is making these model runs colder and colder. It's not easy to warm over super chilled ground and snow pack with a dynamic system to your South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Me me me. I have to work in the morning but I wouldn't miss this run for anything! Count me in as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Euro has started let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I am only out to 48, but appears to be deeper, maybe a little slower and a little colder too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hour 48 looks nice so far. Main part of the vort has dug to just east of Dallas and low is over Louisiana. Plenty of precip ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hour 54 500 mb low has closed off over Louisiana. Surface low about the same location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Has it negatively titled yet? If it holds off it won't pull north as quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hour 60 has a 2 contour closed upper low over Mississippi surface low is right under stacked really stacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Transfer happening around 72, from north central AL to southeast GA, 850's already beginning to crash in TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hour 66 to 72 closed low moves due east into Alabama. Surface low never makes it into TN around Chatty. NW TN and NE TN is colder. This going to be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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