tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 For sure, but I am not sure how I feel about their statement either. I am reading through their other discussions. They really like the 18zGFS in their model discussions which FWIW had depended heavily on backside snow for any accumulation w/ system #2. The Euro has more historical amounts. But yeah, was not expecting that and really no model that I have looked at looks historical in terms of snow amounts for anyone in the Valley, east or west. But thought it was worth sharing. Interesting to see the '96 analog show up. BTW, most folks use analogs not as the end all be all...but just to make sure that what the models are doing makes sense. So, if this set-up has been seen before...then it helps w/ confidence levels if the current models are showing a similar result. Truly, I am following this because it is one of those events that we may potentially not see very often...that does not mean we get a flake here, but we can learn from it. I read that excerpt a couple of times and after reading it, I think he is saying "historic" in terms of what the Mid-Atlantic might see. For the eastern OH and TN Valleys 4-8 wouldn't be historic, but would certainly be worth mentioning in their paragraph where the "snow shield" could start. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Going to be interesting to see the 12z suite. The 12z NAM(has its issues at its later hours) is further north w/ its snow axis, encompassing most of Ohio. Also has a big dry slot over the eastern 1/3 of TN w/ some snow shower activity in northern middle and west TN as the secondary forms. Even a good portion of Virginia is rain. Also, some CAD in the western half of North Carolina. The Euro, GEM, and UKIE are all colder at the surface and a bit further south. So, will be watching at 12z to see how this begins to get sorted out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 I read that excerpt a couple of times and after reading it, I think he is saying "historic" in terms of what the Mid-Atlantic might see. For the eastern OH and TN Valleys 4-8 wouldn't be historic, but would certainly be worth mentioning in their paragraph where the "snow shield" could start. Just my opinion. And maybe it could also mean "historic" in terms of the number of people impacted...like 60-100 million people if things line-up correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If they're comparing it to January 1996 (aka Blizzard of 96), Knoxville got 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If they're comparing it to January 1996 (aka Blizzard of 96), Knoxville got 5 inches. I think the setup is very similar, but the cold was a little better before, during, and coming behind the system. At 500mb it's a pretty close match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 If they're comparing it to January 1996 (aka Blizzard of 96), Knoxville got 5 inches. I know everyone likes to talk about Nashville getting less snow than climo, but Knoxville was flat-out robbed on that one. I lived in Knoxville and was happy w/ my 6" until I called home in Kingsport. The had well over a foot. There were two storms, one in late Jan and one in the first half of Feb. People in the Tri-Cities wanted the snow to stop. I can remember driving home and seeing piles of snow in the parking lots. It was like driving to another world that was like the tundra. I was pretty ill that I had missed out on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Paul Kocin - past Weather Channel met, co-author of a textbook on east coast storms says the following about the late week/weekend system..... "the mechanisms coming together for a major snowfall are textbook". He also references January of 1996, and the big east coast storms in 2003 and 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z GFS took a decent step towards the 0z Euro/EPS/UKMET/yesterday's JMA. @ 72h the primary low is in southern TN over the AL/MS border. The 6z GFS was in southwest KY. That means the entry point into the Valley is different. Trough is a bit steeper at that point. The rest of the run is a bit south of 6z but more organized. But similar. Secondary low forms a bit further south. Also, noticeable is that eastern Mass gets involved. Seems like the model is increasing its its western precip shield and lifting out possibly a bit west of 6z but not sure. Now, time for the Euro and time to see of the models have reached a consolidated track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12Z GFS clown, from Ryan Maue (via Twitter; annotations his): Nice little 6" max over Fall Branch. Edit: This includes what falls with the first system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 12Z GFS clown, from Ryan Maue (via Twitter; annotations his): Nice little 6" max over Fall Branch. Nice info. Fall Branch FTW! Was just looking at the exact map on WxBell. Also, I have seen another snow algorithm (another site, might be AmWx) that has quite a bit more over NE TN. Either way, what a big storm for the MA. You all feel free to post that AmWx clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z UKMet 1.19.16 (not a fast mover) 72h 96h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z GEFS members are here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47661-jan-22-23-east-coast-storm/?p=3879359 Quite a few members either get NE TN in on the real action or are very, very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z Euro pounding northwest TN. Totals during storm are already 13+ inches (some of that is from previous storm). Looks to be south and a bit colder than previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z Euro pounding northwest TN. Totals during storm are already 13+ inches (some of that is from previous storm). Looks to be south and a bit colder than previous run. Will be interesting to see if the NAM shifts back south, I think it is the only one now with the heaviest banding near the Ohio River; how much of a southern jog was it and could we expect it to continue? Close to 14" IMBY with this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 burger posted the SV Euro clown in the SE forum. I won't repost, so get it while you can. Breakdown:10-12" TYS 15-18" TRI 6-12" NW TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The Euro just came out and I literally just **** my pants. I wish I could post the good maps. Oh my lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 I will give someone else the honors of posting the totals..but the Euro starts well south w/ the system in roughly mid-MS. The primary barely makes it into TN. Does push a warm nose up the Valley but not like previous runs. The heaviest snow axis is well south, even in the northeast. Also, good run for North Carolina. Big shift. Going to be interesting to see the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 So yeah north-west middle TN got hit hard with 16 inch totals near Paris, 7 inches as far down as Jackson, tight gradient around Nashville that ramps down from about 9 to 3 inches. Very little in central and southern sections of the eastern valley due to warm nose, then it ramps way up as you get towards TRI. Looks like 18-23 inches in far NE TN lol. Edit: Those amounts include the mid week storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Damn, Knoxville is left out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 When does the EPS usually come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Not seen the run, does it not hit Nashville to Knoxville due to the dying primary? Then hit the NE sections due to the coastal strengthening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 When does the EPS usually come out? I believe it runs around 3pm est Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Not seen the run, does it not hit Nashville to Knoxville due to the dying primary? Then hit the NE sections due to the coastal strengthening? yes John, kind of looks that way. The primary, while further south still pulls up quite a bit of WAA. There is a real dryslot around Knoxville (if you can call around an inch dryslot) with 3 inch amounts just off to your west, most of which falls as rain until you are north and west of Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 yes John, kind of looks that way. The primary, while further south still pulls up quite a bit of WAA. There is a real dryslot around Knoxville (if you can call around an inch dryslot) with 3 inch amounts just off to your west, most of which falls as rain until you are north and west of Nashville. I finally had time to look, the coastal throws some major moisture back to you guys after the primary has croaked. That's a once a decade type snow and shows the benefits of being closer to the coast. The points further west see the mid to high teens about once every 50 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 When does the EPS usually come out? It has just initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The Euro ensembles generally agree with the operational. It has really good support and the mean snowfall is even a little higher between Knoxville and KTRI. I'll look at individual cities here in a minute. To my eye it looks like KTRI is above a foot on the mean and Knoxville is real close to 6". A few members get the whole valley good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I haven't seen the euro, but what has changed? This thing needed a huge shift to the south to help out everyone except the far NE corner of the state and west TN. Can't have a snow event in the valley if the lpc is in the state. Valley warm noses are extremely hard to scour out. Blizzard of 1996 resulted in only an inch of snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 FROM MRX LONG-TERM DISCO: LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INDECENT AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS NOT TOO BAD THROUGHTHE WEEKEND...BUT MORE DISAGREEMENT LATE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN NOMORE THAN AVERAGE LATE. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUTOF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA AND IS FORECASTTO TRACK INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXACT TRACKSTILL NOT CERTAIN...BUT WE SHOULD BE ON THE WARM SIDE SO MAINLYRAIN THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO BEFROM THE SOUTHEAST...AND A SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN WAVE HIGH WINDEVENT STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE NORMALLY FAVORED HIGHER ELEVATIONAND FOOTHILL AREAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND WILLCONTINUE TO HAVE THIS IN THE HWO. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH IN ONTHE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...CHANGING ANY LINGERING PRECIP TOSNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY IN THENORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT.DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...IT APPEARS WE MAYHAVE DEEP MOISTURE LINGERING INTO SATURDAY...AND A DEFORMATION ZONEMAY BE OVER THE AREA AS WELL ENHANCING THE SNOW POTENTIAL. RIGHTNOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THENORMALLY FAVORED HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF EAST TENNESSEE ANDSOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THERE MAY BE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWACCUMULATION EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS (ESPECIALLY NORTH AND PERHAPSCENTRAL). WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THIS IN THE HWO AS WELL. SHOULD BEDRY SUNDAY...THEN MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM...WITHTHE GFS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL CARRY LOW POPS BOTHMONDAY AND TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING MOSTLYLIQUID PRECIP AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I haven't seen the euro, but what has changed? This thing needed a huge shift to the south to help out everyone except the far NE corner of the state and west TN. Can't have a snow event in the valley if the lpc is in the state. Valley warm noses are extremely hard to scour out. Blizzard of 1996 resulted in only an inch of snow here. It was a little south, but the Euro's big change was setting up a pummeling deformation band right over NE Tn/SW Va. At 00z it set that up over the Plateau/Highland rim. Where it sets up, if it does, will ultimately tell the tale on who gets a big dump of snow. The West Tennessee snow is a deformation band on the backside of the initial low before it transfers. The longer it waits to transfer the better for that type of snow spreading across the state. The faster it does, that dies out and most are stuck with rain until you get further East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 The biggest difference on the 12z Euro is how far south the primary is compared to other models. Central MS is a big change. One of the big things to consider over the next couple of runs is that better data is getting ingested into the wx models because the feature is over NA. So, one would expect some pretty good corrections during following runs, good or bad. Trends on operationals matter right now as much as ensemble products if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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