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Jan 22-23 Winter Storm Event..."The Middle Tennessee Mauler"


Carvers Gap

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Glad being northwest of those mountains didn't downslope them, lol.

 

Hoping to see the east and northeast TN begin to fill in over the next 1-2 hours.  More of an ob, but sunshine has been out here in Erwin TN for the last 30 minutes to an hour.

 

From what I've been reading, it did downslope areas immediately to the northwest of the chain from Middlesboro to Harlan, but further northwest around London, Somerset and Jackson KY, they weren't affected.  They have had continuous snow almost all day long.   

 

For reference...been reading the comments on this site:  http://kyweathercenter.com/

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Robert posted this on his facebook page:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0053.html

MD 53 graphic

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0053

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1256 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN...ERN KY...FAR SW WV

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 221856Z - 222300Z

SUMMARY...BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL...WITH OCCASIONAL SNOWFALL RATES

OVER 1 INCH PER HOURS...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WHILE GRADUALLY

SHIFTING EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOUR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE

STRENGTH OF THE BAND IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE

STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT SHIFTS FARTHER EWD/NEWD.

DISCUSSION...CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS

SHOW A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW FROM MIDDLE TN NEWD INTO SWRN WV. LATEST

MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE 850-MB LOW CENTER JUST TO THE S OF THIS BAND

OVER FAR NRN AL. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE ENEWD

ACROSS GA...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OFF THE SC

COAST...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL EWD/NEWD SHIFT OF THE FRONTOGENESIS

SUPPORTING THIS BAND. AS A RESULT...THE BAND WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE

A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STRENGTH THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY

DISPERSING OR REFORMING ACROSS AREAS TO THE NE BY THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...BEFORE THAT OCCURS...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL

CONTINUE WITH SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

..MOSIER.. 01/22/2016

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I'm not very impressive with the deform band now. Breaking up.

Some of that appears to be related to Hytop Radar being in clean air and dbz limits being hit I believe.  For about the last 3 frames of their radar sweep all echos drop across the entire radar by a few DBZ.  They may need it to come out of clean air mode.

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The heavier returns have arrived and . . . it's moderate rain. Think we might get blanked down here

I lived in Cleveland all my childhood and I know Chatt is very frustrating when it comes to loving snow. You guys have done great the last few years and i believe you will not get blanked tonight.  I have lived in Knoxville the last 8 years and Chatt. has done better than we have since i have lived here.. 

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Obviously we will see this thing weaken as time goes on, but it also looks like it's going to sit and spin on east TN for awhile and I'm rather optimistic that MRX will be close to correct on this one.  Shoot, typically they are very conservative relative to modeling (and often justifiably so).  Sure is friggin beautiful right now here, that's for sure.  Gonna enjoy it while it lasts.

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Obviously we will see this thing weaken as time goes on, but it also looks like it's going to sit and spin on east TN for awhile and I'm rather optimistic that MRX will be close to correct on this one.  Shoot, typically they are very conservative relative to modeling (and often justifiably so).  Sure is friggin beautiful right now here, that's for sure.  Gonna enjoy it while it lasts.

Yeah I believe so.  Finally snowing here now at a good clip.

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