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Jan 22-23 Winter Storm Event..."The Middle Tennessee Mauler"


Carvers Gap

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Whoever wrote the afternoon AFD for MRX, that takes somebody w/ real......guts.  I mean that as a 100% positive comment.  Great write-up and explanation.  If it doesn't occur, that is just the way it goes.  But that is meteorology.  Not model hugging, but using the data and the event to make the forecast.  Three cheers from Kingsport! 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
336 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET HAVING ALREADY OCCURRED
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN PLATEAU
AND FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER-LOW TRACKS
INTO THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...DYNAMIC COOLING WILL
OCCUR...CHANGING THE RAIN AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MUCH OF THE
VALLEY TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP
BY SUNSET INTO THE UPPER 20S AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S OVERNIGHT.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER
THE VALLEY...AND SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...NORTHERN PLATEAU...AND PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THERE IS SOME QUESTION REGARDING
A DRY SLOT THAT WILL MOVE UP THROUGH THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT /WHICH
WILL CUT-DOWN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOISTURE
AND COLD AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...THINK THAT WIDESPREAD
2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE VALLEY...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE HEADING INTO THE NORTHERN
VALLEY...AND UP TO ONE FOOT POSSIBLE INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
VALLEYS /WHERE SOME HEAVY SNOWS HAVE ALREADY ACCUMULATED TODAY/.


PRECIPITATION WILL BE PEAK INTENSITY OVERNIGHT...AND THEN TAPER
OFF QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING. BY
SATURDAY AT NOON...LINGERING FLURRIES WILL REMAIN IN THE
VALLEY...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WINDS. ALL IN
ALL...WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...WITH VERY TREACHEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING ROAD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE TONIGHT. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THIS SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM...PLEASE SEE THE WSW

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Whoever wrote the afternoon AFD for MRX, that takes somebody w/ real......guts.  I mean that as a 100% positive comment.  Great write-up and explanation.  If it doesn't occur, that is just the way it goes.  But that is meteorology.  Not model hugging, but using the data and the event to make the forecast.  Three cheers from Kingsport! 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

336 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A COMPLEX WINTER STORM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS

AFTERNOON...WITH HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET HAVING ALREADY OCCURRED

ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN PLATEAU

AND FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER-LOW TRACKS

INTO THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...DYNAMIC COOLING WILL

OCCUR...CHANGING THE RAIN AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MUCH OF THE

VALLEY TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP

BY SUNSET INTO THE UPPER 20S AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID

20S OVERNIGHT.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER

THE VALLEY...AND SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE

MOUNTAINS...NORTHERN PLATEAU...AND PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST

TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THERE IS SOME QUESTION REGARDING

A DRY SLOT THAT WILL MOVE UP THROUGH THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT /WHICH

WILL CUT-DOWN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOISTURE

AND COLD AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...THINK THAT WIDESPREAD

2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE VALLEY...WITH

HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE HEADING INTO THE NORTHERN

VALLEY...AND UP TO ONE FOOT POSSIBLE INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA

VALLEYS /WHERE SOME HEAVY SNOWS HAVE ALREADY ACCUMULATED TODAY/.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE PEAK INTENSITY OVERNIGHT...AND THEN TAPER

OFF QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING. BY

SATURDAY AT NOON...LINGERING FLURRIES WILL REMAIN IN THE

VALLEY...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF

THE DAY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WINDS. ALL IN

ALL...WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP

OVERNIGHT...WITH VERY TREACHEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING ROAD

CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE TONIGHT. FOR MORE

INFORMATION ON THIS SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM...PLEASE SEE THE WSW

Incredible...  They aren't just doubling down, they are raising with all they have.

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This probably belongs in banter, but I'm posting here because I think it will be seen by more people. My father in law owns a commercial landscaping company here in Madison. We are responsible for putting down ice melt at all of the Red Stone Bank Branches. We are trying to decide if we should go ahead and head out or wait. Any opinions are appreciated!

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MRX is steadfast, I'll give them that. I just don't know. Not getting a good feel about this one producing much here. Despite favorable conditions, it just seems the precip can't organize into a consistent band. It may be the Downsloping winds that are just choking the life out I the band, I don't know. I just don't see how this thing is gonna fill in to form a solid precip shield. I hope I'm wrong, but aside from the current bands, it just doesn't look good. Maybe the ULL can enhance the precip as it gets closer, and that's what I hope happens, but I'm not sold on expanding precip at this point.

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MRX is steadfast, I'll give them that. I just don't know. Not getting a good feel about this one producing much here. Despite favorable conditions, it just seems the precip can't organize into a consistent band. It may be the Downsloping winds that are just choking the life out I the band, I don't know. I just don't see how this thing is gonna fill in to form a solid precip shield. I hope I'm wrong, but aside from the current bands, it just doesn't look good. Maybe the ULL can enhance the precip as it gets closer, and that's what I hope happens, but I'm not sold on expanding precip at this point.

 

The flow is about to turn NE, N, then NW overnight. That will remove downsloping. Although it may cause some down towards Chattanooga.

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MRX is steadfast, I'll give them that. I just don't know. Not getting a good feel about this one producing much here. Despite favorable conditions, it just seems the precip can't organize into a consistent band. It may be the Downsloping winds that are just choking the life out I the band, I don't know. I just don't see how this thing is gonna fill in to form a solid precip shield. I hope I'm wrong, but aside from the current bands, it just doesn't look good. Maybe the ULL can enhance the precip as it gets closer, and that's what I hope happens, but I'm not sold on expanding precip at this point.

 Steadfast and OPTOMISTIC.  In most winter weather events, that is not the case.  So, I'm pulling that they are 100% correct.  Just because...if no other reason.  :)

 

Radar trends are slowly improving.  I'm just going to watch and enjoy the show...whatever the outcome. 

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On radar scope it looks like it is starting to set up banding to the south west of Knoxville not sure but it is filling in am I wrong?

 

 

There is some filling in, and some very intense returns in Blount Co.  I have to believe that's sleet/snow/rain mixture. 

 

Temps are slowly dropping, as well. 

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One interesting thing about where I was up on the plateau earlier (Rockwood Airport), heavy wet snow was falling as I arrived when significant returns were on RadarScope.  Then the radar virtually cleared and it was still snowing moderately.  The flakes were smaller but it was still pouring.  So radar doesn't always tell the story, at least with this thing.

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One interesting thing about where I was up on the plateau earlier (Rockwood Airport), heavy wet snow was falling as I arrived when significant returns were on RadarScope.  Then the radar virtually cleared and it was still snowing moderately.  The flakes were smaller but it was still pouring.  So radar doesn't always tell the story, at least with this thing.

Honestly, I have found this to often be the case. Especially with snow. It's usually smaller flakes, but it can still pour with nothing showing up on radar.

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Looks like we now have 2 distinct SLPs.  The old one still holding its own over the TN/NC/GA line, and a new one SE GA inland near the coast.  If our old low can stay alive long enough the new one will keep throwing qpf at it and now that its getting east of the area winds will become more favorable for us over the evening and night.

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Looks like we now have 2 distinct SLPs.  The old one still holding its own over the TN/NC/GA line, and a new one SE GA inland near the coast.  If our old low can stay alive long enough the new one will keep throwing qpf at it and now that its getting east of the area winds will become more favorable for us over the evening and night.

 

Man you're rocking the mesoscale updates today, that has been very useful thank you!

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Honestly, I have found this to often be the case. Especially with snow. It's usually smaller flakes, but it can still pour with nothing showing up on radar.

That's what happened with that last one here as estimates had us at 3-3.5" while we got nearly 5". BTW, big time shaft for much of Lee county today as I've only received 1.5" so far and the first half in was all mixed.

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One interesting thing about where I was up on the plateau earlier (Rockwood Airport), heavy wet snow was falling as I arrived when significant returns were on RadarScope.  Then the radar virtually cleared and it was still snowing moderately.  The flakes were smaller but it was still pouring.  So radar doesn't always tell the story, at least with this thing.

 

Snow is always hard to spot here on radars. MRX used to have a high sensitivity mode that you could flip to, then for a while during snow events they'd flip to it. Now it seems like they never use it. But it picked up snow much better than the current radar does.

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That's what happened with that last one here as estimates had us at 3-3.5" while we got nearly 5". BTW, big time shaft for much of Lee county today as I've only received 1.5" so far and the first half in was all mixed.

 

Been an extremely variable storm.  London, to your northwest, reported 9.5" on the ground at 2 p.m.  Seems like the Cumberland Mountain chain was the cut-off.  Much higher totals to the north and west of those mountains. 

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Been an extremely variable storm.  London, to your northwest, reported 9.5" on the ground at 2 p.m.  Seems like the Cumberland Mountain chain was the cut-off.  Much higher totals to the north and west of those mountains. 

Glad being northwest of those mountains didn't downslope them, lol.

 

Hoping to see the east and northeast TN begin to fill in over the next 1-2 hours.  More of an ob, but sunshine has been out here in Erwin TN for the last 30 minutes to an hour.

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