Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Whoever wrote the afternoon AFD for MRX, that takes somebody w/ real......guts. I mean that as a 100% positive comment. Great write-up and explanation. If it doesn't occur, that is just the way it goes. But that is meteorology. Not model hugging, but using the data and the event to make the forecast. Three cheers from Kingsport! AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN336 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...A COMPLEX WINTER STORM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THISAFTERNOON...WITH HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET HAVING ALREADY OCCURREDACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN PLATEAUAND FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER-LOW TRACKSINTO THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...DYNAMIC COOLING WILLOCCUR...CHANGING THE RAIN AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MUCH OF THEVALLEY TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROPBY SUNSET INTO THE UPPER 20S AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID20S OVERNIGHT.THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVERTHE VALLEY...AND SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THEMOUNTAINS...NORTHERN PLATEAU...AND PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTTENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THERE IS SOME QUESTION REGARDINGA DRY SLOT THAT WILL MOVE UP THROUGH THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT /WHICHWILL CUT-DOWN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOISTUREAND COLD AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...THINK THAT WIDESPREAD2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE VALLEY...WITHHIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE HEADING INTO THE NORTHERNVALLEY...AND UP TO ONE FOOT POSSIBLE INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIAVALLEYS /WHERE SOME HEAVY SNOWS HAVE ALREADY ACCUMULATED TODAY/.PRECIPITATION WILL BE PEAK INTENSITY OVERNIGHT...AND THEN TAPEROFF QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING. BYSATURDAY AT NOON...LINGERING FLURRIES WILL REMAIN IN THEVALLEY...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OFTHE DAY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WINDS. ALL INALL...WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOPOVERNIGHT...WITH VERY TREACHEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING ROADCONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE TONIGHT. FOR MOREINFORMATION ON THIS SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM...PLEASE SEE THE WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Mostly light snow now in the Karns/Bearden area. Just transitioned about 5 minutes ago. Still a little rain mixed in as I type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Whoever wrote the afternoon AFD for MRX, that takes somebody w/ real......guts. I mean that as a 100% positive comment. Great write-up and explanation. If it doesn't occur, that is just the way it goes. But that is meteorology. Not model hugging, but using the data and the event to make the forecast. Three cheers from Kingsport! AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 336 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COMPLEX WINTER STORM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET HAVING ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER-LOW TRACKS INTO THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...DYNAMIC COOLING WILL OCCUR...CHANGING THE RAIN AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MUCH OF THE VALLEY TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP BY SUNSET INTO THE UPPER 20S AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE VALLEY...AND SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...NORTHERN PLATEAU...AND PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THERE IS SOME QUESTION REGARDING A DRY SLOT THAT WILL MOVE UP THROUGH THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT /WHICH WILL CUT-DOWN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...THINK THAT WIDESPREAD 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE VALLEY...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE HEADING INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY...AND UP TO ONE FOOT POSSIBLE INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA VALLEYS /WHERE SOME HEAVY SNOWS HAVE ALREADY ACCUMULATED TODAY/. PRECIPITATION WILL BE PEAK INTENSITY OVERNIGHT...AND THEN TAPER OFF QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AT NOON...LINGERING FLURRIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VALLEY...WHILE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW WINDS. ALL IN ALL...WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WITH VERY TREACHEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING ROAD CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE TONIGHT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM...PLEASE SEE THE WSW Incredible... They aren't just doubling down, they are raising with all they have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This probably belongs in banter, but I'm posting here because I think it will be seen by more people. My father in law owns a commercial landscaping company here in Madison. We are responsible for putting down ice melt at all of the Red Stone Bank Branches. We are trying to decide if we should go ahead and head out or wait. Any opinions are appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Temp slowly dropping here again, and the sun is long gone. Impressive radar returns in Blount Co. currently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 MRX is steadfast, I'll give them that. I just don't know. Not getting a good feel about this one producing much here. Despite favorable conditions, it just seems the precip can't organize into a consistent band. It may be the Downsloping winds that are just choking the life out I the band, I don't know. I just don't see how this thing is gonna fill in to form a solid precip shield. I hope I'm wrong, but aside from the current bands, it just doesn't look good. Maybe the ULL can enhance the precip as it gets closer, and that's what I hope happens, but I'm not sold on expanding precip at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Incredible... They aren't just doubling down, they are raising with all they have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 MRX is steadfast, I'll give them that. I just don't know. Not getting a good feel about this one producing much here. Despite favorable conditions, it just seems the precip can't organize into a consistent band. It may be the Downsloping winds that are just choking the life out I the band, I don't know. I just don't see how this thing is gonna fill in to form a solid precip shield. I hope I'm wrong, but aside from the current bands, it just doesn't look good. Maybe the ULL can enhance the precip as it gets closer, and that's what I hope happens, but I'm not sold on expanding precip at this point. The flow is about to turn NE, N, then NW overnight. That will remove downsloping. Although it may cause some down towards Chattanooga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 MRX is steadfast, I'll give them that. I just don't know. Not getting a good feel about this one producing much here. Despite favorable conditions, it just seems the precip can't organize into a consistent band. It may be the Downsloping winds that are just choking the life out I the band, I don't know. I just don't see how this thing is gonna fill in to form a solid precip shield. I hope I'm wrong, but aside from the current bands, it just doesn't look good. Maybe the ULL can enhance the precip as it gets closer, and that's what I hope happens, but I'm not sold on expanding precip at this point. Steadfast and OPTOMISTIC. In most winter weather events, that is not the case. So, I'm pulling that they are 100% correct. Just because...if no other reason. Radar trends are slowly improving. I'm just going to watch and enjoy the show...whatever the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On radar scope it looks like it is starting to set up banding to the south west of Knoxville not sure but it is filling in am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 WRF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Strong band moving from SWKY towards NW Tennessee. That could get Clarksville back into the swing of things if it can continue to hold together and pivot their way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On radar scope it looks like it is starting to set up banding to the south west of Knoxville not sure but it is filling in am I wrong? There is some filling in, and some very intense returns in Blount Co. I have to believe that's sleet/snow/rain mixture. Temps are slowly dropping, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Thanks John, JayCee, Bearman, and Stove, y'all help me back from the Cliff haha. Yeah seems like the extremely strong E winds have subsided, so maybe the process of a wind shift to more northerly direction is occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 First all snow in West Knoxville we have had all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 One interesting thing about where I was up on the plateau earlier (Rockwood Airport), heavy wet snow was falling as I arrived when significant returns were on RadarScope. Then the radar virtually cleared and it was still snowing moderately. The flakes were smaller but it was still pouring. So radar doesn't always tell the story, at least with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Thanks John, JayCee, Bearman, and Stove, y'all help me back from the Cliff haha. Yeah seems like the extremely strong E winds have subsided, so maybe the process of a wind shift to more northerly direction is occurring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 One interesting thing about where I was up on the plateau earlier (Rockwood Airport), heavy wet snow was falling as I arrived when significant returns were on RadarScope. Then the radar virtually cleared and it was still snowing moderately. The flakes were smaller but it was still pouring. So radar doesn't always tell the story, at least with this thing. Honestly, I have found this to often be the case. Especially with snow. It's usually smaller flakes, but it can still pour with nothing showing up on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Sky has darkened considerably, and some very intense radar returns are moving in here from Blount Co. The wind is picking up and the temp continues its slow tumble. Anxious to see what is moving in...heavy rain, sleet, snow? All three? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Blount County band gave me heavy rain mixed with very wet snow and a silver dollar here and there. Probably helped drop the temp as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks like we now have 2 distinct SLPs. The old one still holding its own over the TN/NC/GA line, and a new one SE GA inland near the coast. If our old low can stay alive long enough the new one will keep throwing qpf at it and now that its getting east of the area winds will become more favorable for us over the evening and night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks like we now have 2 distinct SLPs. The old one still holding its own over the TN/NC/GA line, and a new one SE GA inland near the coast. If our old low can stay alive long enough the new one will keep throwing qpf at it and now that its getting east of the area winds will become more favorable for us over the evening and night. Man you're rocking the mesoscale updates today, that has been very useful thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 WBIR's graphic just aired on TV shows about 2-4 inches in Knoxville area--and around 3-6 further east and north, including Morristown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maharg18 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just flipped from rain to snow on signal mountain so Chattanooga shouldn't be far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Honestly, I have found this to often be the case. Especially with snow. It's usually smaller flakes, but it can still pour with nothing showing up on radar. That's what happened with that last one here as estimates had us at 3-3.5" while we got nearly 5". BTW, big time shaft for much of Lee county today as I've only received 1.5" so far and the first half in was all mixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That comma is something else light frozen returns as far south as Montgomery AL, and it isn't even Midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 One interesting thing about where I was up on the plateau earlier (Rockwood Airport), heavy wet snow was falling as I arrived when significant returns were on RadarScope. Then the radar virtually cleared and it was still snowing moderately. The flakes were smaller but it was still pouring. So radar doesn't always tell the story, at least with this thing. Snow is always hard to spot here on radars. MRX used to have a high sensitivity mode that you could flip to, then for a while during snow events they'd flip to it. Now it seems like they never use it. But it picked up snow much better than the current radar does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That's what happened with that last one here as estimates had us at 3-3.5" while we got nearly 5". BTW, big time shaft for much of Lee county today as I've only received 1.5" so far and the first half in was all mixed. Been an extremely variable storm. London, to your northwest, reported 9.5" on the ground at 2 p.m. Seems like the Cumberland Mountain chain was the cut-off. Much higher totals to the north and west of those mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I've gotten close to 3 inches today. It's probably been enough precip to have gotten 6-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Been an extremely variable storm. London, to your northwest, reported 9.5" on the ground at 2 p.m. Seems like the Cumberland Mountain chain was the cut-off. Much higher totals to the north and west of those mountains. Glad being northwest of those mountains didn't downslope them, lol. Hoping to see the east and northeast TN begin to fill in over the next 1-2 hours. More of an ob, but sunshine has been out here in Erwin TN for the last 30 minutes to an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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