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Jan 22-23 Winter Storm Event..."The Middle Tennessee Mauler"


Carvers Gap

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In the last hour MRX updated their snowfall map.  They are doubling down.  They must believe the trowl forming/ULL will enhance snowfall.  They have 2-3 inch totals down to just above Chatt even painting a small 4-6" area in Knox county.  

 

I think they may onto something.  The radar has "convective" type elements forming now, and when you get under one, its snow apparently.  More are forming and moving into the valley.  Going to be an interesting evening!

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In the last hour MRX updated their snowfall map.  They are doubling down.  They must believe the trowl forming/ULL will enhance snowfall.  They have 2-3 inch totals down to just above Chatt even painting a small 4-6" area in Knox county.  

I hope they are right. I have seen more blue sky than flakes so far today. I guess I just need to be more patient with this thing.

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12Z Euro goes nuts over Plateau, and is even somewhat generous Great Valley. Odd hole Upper Valley I don't buy either way after winds shift. MRX may be buying into Euro (minus the hole) on latest forecast. Perhaps Euro has a favorable hand-off of upper energy, rather than the usual baton drop debacle. Euro even gets Chatty, but I remain skeptical per my main post.

 

GFS did fairly well in some areas because the system is colder than forecast. NAM captured Great Valley warm issues well, as one would expect from the higher resolution model. Both finally got the dynamic cooling in Nashville, but not soon enough for those caught off guard. MEM was not really a bust; so, unless you are in MEM let your heart not be troubled. Mid South was always a small comma head or TROWAL, where small track deviations make or break.

 

TRI early morning probably benefited from cold/snow on the ground, but snowcover mainly impacts the immediate surface. Question came up a few pages back. For the new snow, 850 also started out cold enough, likely more precip driven cooling than existing snowcover. Maybe cold mountain snowcover at 850 mb helped, but I will vote on the precip. TRI is in a world of dry slot right now but I agree with MRX it will fill in, including during the colder period this evening. MRX and maybe Knox to also do OK if the great fill-in verifies.

 

Oh Chattanooga! I will just be happy for everyone else and travel this weekend. Huntsville notes off their midday balloon that 850 is near zero but 900 mb is +4!! Huntsville NWS old but great disco covers the issues on US-72 from North Alabama into Chatty: 

 

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...WITH EVERYTHING HINGING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS REACH THE AREA AND WHETHER THERE IS ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PRECIP. WHILE THE COLDER AIR HAS REACHED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...THERE IS STILL A TIGHT TEMPERATURES GRADIENT...

 

 THE OTHER CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING HOW MUCH SNOW THE TN VALLEY WILL RECEIVE. CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS W TN AND N MS...IN RESPONSE TO A TROWAL THAT IS EVIDENT ON THE 3 KM THETA E CROSS SECTION. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AS THE PARENT SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH AS WELL...

 

Decatur, Madison, Huntsville and Chatty face daunting odds. I see precip breaking out as far south as I-20 from BHM to ATL but it is all rain. Might be evidence of continued lift, but I doubt it lasts too many hours with things winding up on the coast. Still, the red line above could be sweet for Knox, MRX, TRI if it verifies. 

 

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12Z Euro goes nuts over Plateau, and is even somewhat generous Great Valley. Odd hole Upper Valley I don't buy either way after winds shift. MRX may be buying into Euro (minus the hole) on latest forecast. Perhaps Euro has a favorable hand-off of upper energy, rather than the usual baton drop debacle. Euro even gets Chatty, but I remain skeptical per my main post.

This gives me pause. The NAM was showing something similar yesterday, cranking out several inches in the southern plateau and even into NW GA. 

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Hey guys, any chance that backside band in west tennessee holds it's strength through the state?

I have a feeling that area between Nash and the back edge which is now streaking to Memphis will begin filling in with light snow as we move forward but the whole comma will continue east movement then later east northeast, then northeast.

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I drove through a convective type band on my way home from work.  It was rain, sleet, and snow all mixed, and it was coming down at a good clip.  Temp dropped 3 degrees.  It was more like a summer thundershower.  Very heavy, but brief. 

 

While I'm typing this at home, a moderate sleet/snow shower has started falling at my house.  Once temps cooperate, this will start accumulating.  And with each "shower" that passes, temps drop a degree or so. 

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I have a feeling that area between Nash and the back edge which is now streaking to Memphis will begin filling in with light snow as we move forward but the whole comma will continue east movement then later east northeast, then northeast.

 

I am sure this is wishcasting but does it seem like the low has slowed down some and wrapping a little more around it on backside?

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MRX just doubled-down on their totals for NE TN for the updated WSW at 2:50.  They have got to be counting on some killer lift late this afternoon and then some wrap-around.  All afternoon, bands of precip were coming across the mtn creating the infamous JC snow shadow.  Precip has now shifted out of the southwest as the ULL slowly moves eastward.  The 12z Euro had 4-5" in NE TN....nickels and dimes it over the next 24 hours.  Not sure we get there w/ that.  Been a very interesting storm to follow.  Very glad the forum had a big storm to follow. 

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MRX just doubled-down on their totals for NE TN for the updated WSW at 2:50.  They have got to be counting on some killer lift late this afternoon and then some wrap-around.  All afternoon, bands of precip were coming across the mtn creating the infamous JC snow shadow.  Precip has now shifted out of the southwest as the ULL slowly moves eastward.  The 12z Euro had 4-5" in NE TN....nickels and dimes it over the next 24 hours.  Not sure we get there w/ that.  Been a very interesting storm to follow.  Very glad the forum had a big storm to follow. 

They seem to be sticking with their duration theory. FWIW they increased my totals from 3-4 from this morning to 6-8. We've gotten 2 inches so far, so we need at least 4 more.

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They seem to be sticking with their duration theory. FWIW they increased my totals from 3-4 from this morning to 6-8. We've gotten 2 inches so far, so we need at least 4 more.

 

Now, I did just look at the NAM.  I sort of supports it.  But it is not universal in its coverage in NE TN.  Your area has much more even coverage.  Some energy wraps back in this afternoon from the south and then overnight quite a bit of moisture wraps back into KY and loops down southeastward into TN.  Now, we are making some sense.  I would roll w 2-3" as potential in NE TN w/ that scenario.  More on the Plateau. 

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University of Alabama at Huntsville Atmo Sci (Met Dept) did a sounding last hour. Deep subfreezing saturated layer all the way up to 500mb is noted. Now can lingering lift fill in things? HSV metro has an inch or two according to reports. Can anybody confirm? I'm wishing that North Alabama blob down US-72 into Chatty!

 

Regardless of what happens in CHA, latest real sounding data and radar trends are favorable up toward Knoxville and MRX. Also a big time Plateau Party is in full effect! Understand TRI has some local issues with winds, but I think it will work out there too. JC may have to wait until NW winds. Maybe Kingsport will have fun first. Y'all share with each other up there OK.  :drunk:

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I am sure this is wishcasting but does it seem like the low has slowed down some and wrapping a little more around it on backside?

I'm not wishcasting I don't live out there.  Just watching radar returns and features it looks like there are signs of light qpf trying to fill in out in that direction.  I was just answering a question by someone else and gave an answer based on what I see.  I didnt say its going to be heavy snow or anything like that just lighter snows and likely scattered to some degree in nature.  Often times with large storms in the comma toward the back it will snow lightly with little to no radar returns picking it up.  

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I'm not wishcasting I don't live out there.  Just watching radar returns and features it looks like there are signs of light qpf trying to fill in out in that direction.  I was just answering a question by someone else and gave an answer based on what I see.  I didnt say its going to be heavy snow or anything like that just lighter snows and likely scattered to some degree in nature.  Often times with large storms in the comma toward the back it will snow lightly with little to no radar returns picking it up.  

 

No sorry man I was wishcasting. I didn't mean it towards you. I am in McMinnville and hoping we can squeeze out a little more before it's said and done.

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University of Alabama at Huntsville Atmo Sci (Met Dept) did a sounding last hour. Deep subfreezing saturated layer all the way up to 500mb is noted. Now can lingering lift fill in things? HSV metro has an inch or two according to reports. Can anybody confirm? I'm wishing that North Alabama blob down US-72 into Chatty!

 

Regardless of what happens in CHA, latest real sounding data and radar trends are favorable up toward Knoxville and MRX. Also a big time Plateau Party is in full effect! Understand TRI has some local issues with winds, but I think it will work out there too. JC may have to wait until NW winds. Maybe Kingsport will have fun first. Y'all share with each other up there OK.  :drunk:

 

Looking good down that way.  Reel it in, man!  Radar looks promising.  :sled:

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Yes I'm casting a line down US-72! Up your way MRX AFD mentions the dry slot. They don't seem too concerned.

 

Thank you BamaChemE! 

Jeff, I'm in Athens. I don't know that we've gotten that much yet. Roads aren't white yet.

 

North Alabama sounding and stuff.

University of Alabama at Huntsville Atmo Sci (Met Dept) did a sounding last hour. Deep subfreezing saturated layer all the way up to 500mb is noted. Now can lingering lift fill in things? HSV metro has an inch or two according to reports. Can anybody confirm? I'm wishing that North Alabama blob down US-72 into Chatty!

 

Regardless of what happens in CHA, latest real sounding data and radar trends are favorable up toward Knoxville and MRX. Also a big time Plateau Party is in full effect! Understand TRI has some local issues with winds, but I think it will work out there too. JC may have to wait until NW winds. Maybe Kingsport will have fun first. Y'all share with each other up there OK.  :drunk:

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