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Jan 22-23 Winter Storm Event..."The Middle Tennessee Mauler"


Carvers Gap

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Yeah, that's one thing that has me worried.  All we can do is wait and see at the moment.

 

Hate ya'll had the carrot pulled away at the last minute.  We've all experienced that let down.  It's no fun. 

 

Other than there's going to be possible storm somewhere around and we might get some, I've just determined that snow is pretty much impossible to forecast.  

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Per MRX:

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1108 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

...STRONG WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

.A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET
TO THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE DAY. AS THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO
THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO
THE REST OF THE VALLEY...CHANGING RAIN OVER TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY SNOW STARTING EARLY FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH
OF FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN PLATEAU
AND THE SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS.
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN
PLATEAU WILL SEE LIGHTER AMOUNTS...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL
CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
 

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I agree. The WSW has just been updated. MRX doubled down in my area. These comma heads are notoriously underdone on models.

Yeah I can remember large storms like this where the comma moves very slowly while keeping a fetch of moisture down East TN and snow totals being racked up under it as it barely moved for hours.

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Yeah I can remember large storms like this where the comma moves very slowly while keeping a fetch of moisture down East TN and snow totals being racked up under it as it barely moved for hours.

Yeah, it is also possible that lower level moisture lingers longer than the radar returns can show. I can think of many times of getting some light stuff for a few hours with nothing even on the radar. Let's hope we can score on this part of the storm.

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Yeah, it is also possible that lower level moisture lingers longer than the radar returns can show. I can think of many times of getting some light stuff for a few hours with nothing even on the radar. Let's hope we can score on this part of the storm.

 

Yeah I can remember large storms like this where the comma moves very slowly while keeping a fetch of moisture down East TN and snow totals being racked up under it as it barely moved for hours.

Knowing exactly where that sets up is difficult to figure out. I'm sure it's a tough job. In 2014 and 2015, both of those storms had a similar set up I believe. Especially the storm in 2014. Rain and sleet early with a transition to heavy snow later. 

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ULL northeast [/size]#alwx east [/size]#tnwx will have to be watched, some convection [/size]#gawx as system rolls east today, night. [/size]

 

This is from Robert.... Can anyone tell me what this means?[/size]

Robert thinks the mentioned areas could see enhanced snowfall rates and possibly thundersnow if the upper low is strong enough and dynamic enough to produce convention.
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40F in most areas around Dandridge and Sevierville.  I don't think we'll be seeing a changeover by 2.  Sun is still trying to peek out here.  Anxiously waiting for a cool change....

 

Maybe 3--4?  Once that comma head starts moving in, hopefully temps will crash fast. 

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850's are finally advancing what looks like to the edge of the valley.  MRX time frames graphic may be pretty accurate.

 

Warm "nose" shows up well there.  Sky finally darkening here again, and some very nice radar returns advancing back into our area. I wonder if that dark orange south of Knoxville is sleet?  Very high reflectivity. If not, I would classify it as "convective."

 

MRX_0.png

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GFS did fairly well in some areas because the system is colder than forecast. NAM captured Great Valley warm issues well, as one would expect from the higher resolution model. Both finally got the dynamic cooling in Nashville, but not soon enough for those caught off guard. MEM was not really a bust; so, unless you are in MEM let your heart not be troubled. Mid South was always a small comma head or TROWAL, where small track deviations make or break.

 

TRI early morning probably benefited from cold/snow on the ground, but snowcover mainly impacts the immediate surface. Question came up a few pages back. For the new snow, 850 also started out cold enough, likely more precip driven cooling than existing snowcover. Maybe cold mountain snowcover at 850 mb helped, but I will vote on the precip. TRI is in a world of dry slot right now but I agree with MRX it will fill in, including during the colder period this evening. MRX and maybe Knox to also do OK if the great fill-in verifies.

 

Oh Chattanooga! I will just be happy for everyone else and travel this weekend. Huntsville notes off their midday balloon that 850 is near zero but 900 mb is +4!! Huntsville NWS old but great disco covers the issues on US-72 from North Alabama into Chatty: 

 

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...WITH EVERYTHING HINGING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS REACH THE AREA AND WHETHER THERE IS ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PRECIP. WHILE THE COLDER AIR HAS REACHED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...THERE IS STILL A TIGHT TEMPERATURES GRADIENT...

 

 THE OTHER CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING HOW MUCH SNOW THE TN VALLEY WILL RECEIVE. CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS W TN AND N MS...IN RESPONSE TO A TROWAL THAT IS EVIDENT ON THE 3 KM THETA E CROSS SECTION. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AS THE PARENT SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH AS WELL...

 

Decatur, Madison, Huntsville and Chatty face daunting odds. I see precip breaking out as far south as I-20 from BHM to ATL but it is all rain. Might be evidence of continued lift, but I doubt it lasts too many hours with things winding up on the coast. Still, the red line above could be sweet for Knox, MRX, TRI if it verifies. 

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Accidentally dropped my comments in the obs thread first...moved them over here.  

 

Congratulations to all of the middle TN folks.  Hey, it also looked like some snow fell over western portion of the TN River Valley last night.  Do we have anyone there?  Would be interested about what, if any fell.  Looked like great rates.  Memphis folks, really hate that band did not set-up.  I never quite trusted that western extent of the snow.  Nashville folks, the Euro did very well there.  For NE TN, it was all about the front end thump and now the wrap around snow.  I am quite surprised to see MRX calling for bigger totals than the mesoscale models which are pretty putrid right now.  IMO, that is a very good call. One can see the radar filling back-in over E TN.  We should have that "fetch" for a while IMO.  Looks like the secondary is taking over in southern GA and that secondary is now sending a SE fetch of moisture towards the eastern Valley.  I have been watching the models for like 7 days on this...and that is what I would have expected to see on more models(very few actually showed it), an enhancement of the eastern Valley qpf by the secondary low that was decently consolidated.  Moisture being pumped westward across the Apps.  Models are notorious for being weak on qpf on the northwest quadrants of winter storms, case in point see Nashville in regards to the primary low.  Now, the eastern Valley is in the northwest quadrant of the secondary low.  We'll see how that works out.  One potential fly in the ointment is the spin near Chatt working up the Valley, ULL(?).  It may just weaken and dissolve into the bigger system.  But it may play havoc w/ thermal profile and may either deter more radar returns or enhance them.  Crapshoot at this point.  Someone who knows atmospheric physics may be able to explain what happens if meanders up the Valley or straight across the Apps.  IMO, we are currently seeing the Miller B portion of the storm w/ the energy transfer currently happening SE to southern GA.  That is very unusual.  Usually, energy transfers w/ Miler Bs are due east or northeast.   So, a hybrid.  Anyway, I will be very intrigued to see how things work in the eastern Valley and Plateau this evening and tonight.  Keep those observations coming!  Great storm for many in TN.

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When you look at things down south on the radar, this baby is crawling.  Precip shields are expanding north.  Hey, one more point, the NAM (though it was awful when it developed like 4-5 lows over the Chesepeake on one run)...looks like it is going to be correct in getting to the big cities(per WxSouth).  For us to get more snow in the eastern Valley, on the models we always did a tad better when it curved more northward versus just sliding off north of Hatteras.  It may still slide off close to there, but is has a more northward component.  Since the storm is pivoting a bit instead of "sliding" that may help snow totals in NE TN and SW VA.  We'll test out that theory.  One, we need to verify if it indeed hits NY and Boston w/ heavier amounts than forecast.  Two, let's see if those radars really do fill back-in w/ meaningful amounts.  Right now I have 6" on the ground.  I am definitely fine w/ that.  But will gladly take more!

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When you look at things down south on the radar, this baby is crawling.  Precip shields are expanding north.  Hey, one more point, the NAM (though it was awful when it developed like 4-5 lows over the Chesepeake on one run)...looks like it is going to be correct in getting to the big cities(per WxSouth).  For us to get more snow in the eastern Valley, on the models we always did a tad better when it curved more northward versus just sliding off north of Hatteras.  It may still slide off close to there, but is has a more northward component.  Since the storm is pivoting a bit instead of "sliding" that may help snow totals in NE TN and SW VA.  We'll test out that theory.  One, we need to verify if it indeed hits NY and Boston w/ heavier amounts than forecast.  Two, let's see if those radars really do fill back-in w/ meaningful amounts.  Right now I have 6" on the ground.  I am definitely fine w/ that.  But will gladly take more!

 

Congrats.  Have friends in Bristol, and they've sent pics.  They had about 6-7.  Hopefully, we will at least turn the ground back to white  down this way.  But with the current radar looking a little less robust, I'm just hoping for a good surprise at this point. 

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And one last point..the -NAO, the -AO, and the +PNA did there work albeit w/ a bit of lag time.  As the NAO rises or falls, that is a great signal during winter for a winter storm.  Also true about a rising AO.  And as Mr. Bob stated...have to have some cold air to work with.  These past two systems had quite a bit.  We had lows this week in the single digits @ TRI w/ negative wind chills.  So, maybe those are some of the things we look for in the future.  Keep this in mind as well...sometimes it snows in bad patterns and sometimes it doesn't snow in good patterns.  

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HRRR is being consistently unkind to the central valley. It's actualy improved a bit down here from nothing to 1-2 inches. Has several inches in the nearby plateau. Looks like TRI gets in on some nice snow once the transfer happens. I can't say I'm very encouraged by the radar trends. Doesn't look like there will be much moisture left.

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HRRR is being consistently unkind to the central valley. It's actualy improved a bit down here from nothing to 1-2 inches. Has several inches in the nearby plateau. Looks like TRI gets in on some nice snow once the transfer happens. I can't say I'm very encouraged by the radar trends. Doesn't look like there will be much moisture left.

 

With temps here steady at 40-41, I think it's on to something.  Perhaps we are just not in a good position to get the needed cooling.  Areas near and north of Morristown stand a better chance I believe getting something this evening and overnight.  But the moisture on  radar is breaking up a bit into more "showers."  That's not an encouraging sign. Maybe once the "transfer" occurs, we'll get decent "backlash" snows?

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My manager here said a friend in Knoxville stated that they had some very heavy snow just move though with that orange band on the radar.  Apparently, it was convective in nature and tapped into some cold air in the upper levels. If we can just get more of those to develop and continue in the evening....

 

Edit: I can see the clouds associated with this now...and they are definitely convective.  I can see cumulus towers among the precip.  Looks like a spring thunder shower. 

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In the last hour MRX updated their snowfall map.  They are doubling down.  They must believe the trowl forming/ULL will enhance snowfall.  They have 2-3 inch totals down to just above Chatt even painting a small 4-6" area in Knox county.  

 

I think they may onto something.  The radar has "convective" type elements forming now, and when you get under one, its snow apparently.  More are forming and moving into the valley.  Going to be an interesting evening!

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