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Jan 22-23 Winter Storm Event..."The Middle Tennessee Mauler"


Carvers Gap

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Latest SLP placement, seems to show broadening to the SSE maybe the beginning of transfer to coastal?

 

Curious--is the transfer good or bad for East TN?  I know it will help end the downsloping, but will it take much of the moisture with it, and weaken the deformation band currently in Mid TN? 

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Curious--is the transfer good or bad for East TN?  I know it will help end the downsloping, but will it take much of the moisture with it, and weaken the deformation band currently in Mid TN? 

It would weaken the precip shield over middle TN slowly but gradually as the old low will slowly die out not instantly die, but it would accelerate cold air advection.  I see that as positive for ETN anyway.

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Is it over for Clarksville? Did we lose? I am not as well versed on it as most of you all so I would love some insight.. Maybe two inches on the ground right now after sitting in the 7-15 range last 48 hours. 

 

 

Any slim hope left? Expectations?

Still looks like you will have more snow, doubt those high totals but probably at least a few more inches likely.

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Latest SLP placement, seems to show broadening to the SSE maybe the beginning of transfer to coastal?

The secondary is forming over Georgia as we speak. Looks a bit northwest of models as evidenced by the bands of precip it is trying to send nw over the Apps and a little bit of rotation as it forms. Those bands are not on many of the mesoscale models. MRX mentioned in the video that the best lift is this afternoon. This is the hybrid look piece of the puzzle. Energy is going to slowly move NE from there w/ a Miller A look.

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I just got sent home due to state offices closing for the day. When I left hwy 64 in Polk County, it was 46 with broken clouds and sun, by the time I got to Cleveland (only 20 miles west), it was 36 with very heavy rain. 37.4 IMBY in Chattanooga with heavy intermittent showers. The HRRR may have had the right idea with temps in the mid 40's due to downsloping, but I think those temps will stay in a small area near the base of the mountains.

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The secondary is forming over Georgia as we speak. Looks a bit northwest of models as evidenced by the bands of precip it is trying to send nw over the Apps and a little bit of rotation as it forms. Those bands are not on many of the mesoscale models. MRX mentioned in the video that the best lift is this afternoon. This is the hybrid look piece of the puzzle. Energy is going to slowly move NE from there w/ a Miller A look.

That would be good.  If it forms NW of most modeling and then move NE, anything further west helps us.  Would love it to track inland a bit rather than off shore.

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Sun finally gone here, and light showers falling again.  Temp up to 39F

 

It always amazes me the spread of temps in the valley at similar elevation between base of the Apps to Base of the plateau.  I'm currently 34.7 about 8 miles east of the Plateau just south of I-40.  Then you go due east still in the valley and it warms 5 to 6 degrees at the base of the Apps.  Downsloping is such and interesting effect.

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From JKL: (looks like southeast KY in the "sweet spot" this afternoon)

 

This area already had quite a bit of icing last night, and with heavy, wet snow falling now, power outages are probably likely. 

 

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
942 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

SNOW HAS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WITH THE
WARN NOSE ERODED. SOME SPOTS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 4 TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOW WITH AT LEAST 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES OCCURRING.

THE BIGGEST UPDATE MADE TO THE GRIDS WAS TO INCREASE THE TOTAL
SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...INCLUDING WAYNE AND PULASKI
COUNTIES. MANY OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A BULLSEYE OF SNOW
NEAR THIS AREA AND BELIEVE THIS IS DUE TO THE CONVECTION THAT IS
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM TENNESSEE. WE HAVE COORDINATED THIS INCREASE
IN SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH LMK. ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ELIMINATE
THE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN BUT KEPT SOME SLEET IN THE EASTERN
MOST COUNTIES THROUGH MID-DAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HEAVY...WET SNOW
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THE CONVECTION MOVING INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.
 

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Looks like Knoxville is about to enter the dry slot. Hopefully that won't raise temps too much.

 

As the dry slot sits here, temps now range from 39-42 on most of the personal weather stations.  We had a shower, and now the sun is peeking out again.  The "slot" doesn't look as extensive further to the west, so it shouldn't last as long as it has over here.

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It always amazes me the spread of temps in the valley at similar elevation between base of the Apps to Base of the plateau.  I'm currently 34.7 about 8 miles east of the Plateau just south of I-40.  Then you go due east still in the valley and it warms 5 to 6 degrees at the base of the Apps.  Downsloping is such and interesting effect.

 

 

Yes, it is.  I'm learning more how it works in situations like this.  It certainly makes forecasting difficult in the valley.  If the mountains were not there, we would be a lot colder and wetter here right now. 

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MRX AFD:

 

 

 

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX WINTER STORM MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...AS WELL AS THE
PEAKS OF THE WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EAST TENNESSEE. FURTHER
DOWN IN ELEVATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN VALLEY FROM
MORRISTOWN NORTHEASTWARD...LOCATIONS ARE EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
SLEET AND SNOW INTERMITTENTLY...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER IS A
STRONG LLJ JET OF 50-60 KTS ROTATING OVER THE REGION. THIS STRONG
LLJ IS PRODUCING HIGH-END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER THE EAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
60 MPH LOCALLY. THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE SERVING TO WARM THE
FOOTHILLS TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 40S... WHILE CREATING NEAR BLIZZARD
LIKE CONDITIONS NEAR THE PEAKS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AND THE HIGHER WINDS.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT IN
THESE AREAS UNTIL 00Z TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING
THAT GOES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE REST OF THE PLATEAU...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BEFORE
COLDER AIR SHIFTS IN AS THE UPPER-LOW ROTATES INTO THE NORTH
GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. THE AFOREMENTIONED DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY INITIALLY
SERVE TO CUT OFF PRECIPITATION IN THE VALLEY FOR A BIT...BUT IT
WILL GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN BY THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS AND
EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST. AS A RESULT...A CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW WILL HAPPEN QUICKLY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RUSH
HOUR AREAWIDE...AND WILL REALLY BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE AFTER SUNSET
WHEN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S.
PLEASE SEE
THE WSW AND HWO PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORMS AND IT`S IMPACTS AFTER 00Z. THIS WILL ALSO BE FURTHER
ADDRESSED IN THE FORECAST ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON AT 20Z.

 

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It is just hope that the ULL has enough moisture to work with.  In all reality it should considering the surface low should throw moisture back at the ULL this evening/tonight.

 

I'm 60/40 on believing we'll see decent amounts right now.  It's gonna depend on the moisture as you stated, and duration.  If the low moves slowly over our region, we can be pleasantly surprised.  If it pulls off too quickly to our northeast, we won't have much time for accumulations. 

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Both the RAP and HRRR still literally have no snow accumulation for the central and southern valley.  I'm pulling for MRX on this one lol.

 

Not saying it will happen to you, but these were the first model indications of a bust in Memphis.  Of course, they were outliers at the time and got thrown out.

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Not saying it will happen to you, but these were the first model indications of a bust in Memphis.  Of course, they were outliers at the time and got thrown out.

 

They've since filled in a little bit.  They show us finagling an inch or two, we'll see.  Sorry about your bust man.

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Not saying it will happen to you, but these were the first model indications of a bust in Memphis.  Of course, they were outliers at the time and got thrown out.

 

Yeah, that's one thing that has me worried.  All we can do is wait and see at the moment.

 

Hate ya'll had the carrot pulled away at the last minute.  We've all experienced that let down.  It's no fun. 

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They've since filled in a little bit.  They show us finagling an inch or two, we'll see.  Sorry about your bust man.

 

It's alright; it's all about perspective and there are some good things about this.  Gotta look at the bright side.  In any case- we should actually know better than to believe models by now.  

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