JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Latest SLP placement, seems to show broadening to the SSE maybe the beginning of transfer to coastal? Curious--is the transfer good or bad for East TN? I know it will help end the downsloping, but will it take much of the moisture with it, and weaken the deformation band currently in Mid TN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Curious--is the transfer good or bad for East TN? I know it will help end the downsloping, but will it take much of the moisture with it, and weaken the deformation band currently in Mid TN? It would weaken the precip shield over middle TN slowly but gradually as the old low will slowly die out not instantly die, but it would accelerate cold air advection. I see that as positive for ETN anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Is it over for Clarksville? Did we lose? I am not as well versed on it as most of you all so I would love some insight.. Maybe two inches on the ground right now after sitting in the 7-15 range last 48 hours. Any slim hope left? Expectations? Still looks like you will have more snow, doubt those high totals but probably at least a few more inches likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Most models had the jump around where it's at now or in NE Georgia on the better runs for us. The longer it takes the longer the back side stays stronger. That ULL should track basically over Eastern Tennessee this evening and tonight. Hopefully with the potency it's packing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Is it over for Clarksville? Did we lose? I am not as well versed on it as most of you all so I would love some insight.. Maybe two inches on the ground right now after sitting in the 7-15 range last 48 hours. Any slim hope left? Expectations? The strong warm nose really cut into everyone's totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Latest SLP placement, seems to show broadening to the SSE maybe the beginning of transfer to coastal? The secondary is forming over Georgia as we speak. Looks a bit northwest of models as evidenced by the bands of precip it is trying to send nw over the Apps and a little bit of rotation as it forms. Those bands are not on many of the mesoscale models. MRX mentioned in the video that the best lift is this afternoon. This is the hybrid look piece of the puzzle. Energy is going to slowly move NE from there w/ a Miller A look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I just got sent home due to state offices closing for the day. When I left hwy 64 in Polk County, it was 46 with broken clouds and sun, by the time I got to Cleveland (only 20 miles west), it was 36 with very heavy rain. 37.4 IMBY in Chattanooga with heavy intermittent showers. The HRRR may have had the right idea with temps in the mid 40's due to downsloping, but I think those temps will stay in a small area near the base of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The secondary is forming over Georgia as we speak. Looks a bit northwest of models as evidenced by the bands of precip it is trying to send nw over the Apps and a little bit of rotation as it forms. Those bands are not on many of the mesoscale models. MRX mentioned in the video that the best lift is this afternoon. This is the hybrid look piece of the puzzle. Energy is going to slowly move NE from there w/ a Miller A look. That would be good. If it forms NW of most modeling and then move NE, anything further west helps us. Would love it to track inland a bit rather than off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Sun finally gone here, and light showers falling again. Temp up to 39F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Sun finally gone here, and light showers falling again. Temp up to 39F It always amazes me the spread of temps in the valley at similar elevation between base of the Apps to Base of the plateau. I'm currently 34.7 about 8 miles east of the Plateau just south of I-40. Then you go due east still in the valley and it warms 5 to 6 degrees at the base of the Apps. Downsloping is such and interesting effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 From JKL: (looks like southeast KY in the "sweet spot" this afternoon) This area already had quite a bit of icing last night, and with heavy, wet snow falling now, power outages are probably likely. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY942 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016.UPDATE...ISSUED AT 942 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016SNOW HAS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WITH THEWARN NOSE ERODED. SOME SPOTS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 4 TO 6 INCHESOF SNOW WITH AT LEAST 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES OCCURRING.THE BIGGEST UPDATE MADE TO THE GRIDS WAS TO INCREASE THE TOTALSNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...INCLUDING WAYNE AND PULASKICOUNTIES. MANY OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A BULLSEYE OF SNOWNEAR THIS AREA AND BELIEVE THIS IS DUE TO THE CONVECTION THAT ISMOVING NORTHWARD FROM TENNESSEE. WE HAVE COORDINATED THIS INCREASEIN SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH LMK. ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ELIMINATETHE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN BUT KEPT SOME SLEET IN THE EASTERNMOST COUNTIES THROUGH MID-DAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HEAVY...WET SNOWTO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATESPOSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITHTHE CONVECTION MOVING INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks like Knoxville is about to enter the dry slot. Hopefully that won't raise temps too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TnColt8 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Clarksville area looks like its about to get filled back up over the course of the next couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks like Knoxville is about to enter the dry slot. Hopefully that won't raise temps too much. As the dry slot sits here, temps now range from 39-42 on most of the personal weather stations. We had a shower, and now the sun is peeking out again. The "slot" doesn't look as extensive further to the west, so it shouldn't last as long as it has over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It always amazes me the spread of temps in the valley at similar elevation between base of the Apps to Base of the plateau. I'm currently 34.7 about 8 miles east of the Plateau just south of I-40. Then you go due east still in the valley and it warms 5 to 6 degrees at the base of the Apps. Downsloping is such and interesting effect. Yes, it is. I'm learning more how it works in situations like this. It certainly makes forecasting difficult in the valley. If the mountains were not there, we would be a lot colder and wetter here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I don't know. This dry slot is killer. Honestly not expecting more than 2-3 inches at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 MRX AFD: .DISCUSSION...COMPLEX WINTER STORM MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITHSIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OFSOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...AS WELL AS THEPEAKS OF THE WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EAST TENNESSEE. FURTHERDOWN IN ELEVATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN VALLEY FROMMORRISTOWN NORTHEASTWARD...LOCATIONS ARE EXPERIENCING A MIX OFSLEET AND SNOW INTERMITTENTLY...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONSPOSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER IS ASTRONG LLJ JET OF 50-60 KTS ROTATING OVER THE REGION. THIS STRONGLLJ IS PRODUCING HIGH-END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER THE EASTTENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS60 MPH LOCALLY. THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE SERVING TO WARM THEFOOTHILLS TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 40S... WHILE CREATING NEAR BLIZZARDLIKE CONDITIONS NEAR THE PEAKS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WINTRYPRECIPITATION AND THE HIGHER WINDS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT INTHESE AREAS UNTIL 00Z TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A WINTER STORM WARNINGTHAT GOES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.THE REST OF THE PLATEAU...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY WILLCONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BEFORECOLDER AIR SHIFTS IN AS THE UPPER-LOW ROTATES INTO THE NORTHGEORGIA MOUNTAINS. THE AFOREMENTIONED DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY INITIALLYSERVE TO CUT OFF PRECIPITATION IN THE VALLEY FOR A BIT...BUT ITWILL GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN BY THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS ANDEVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST. AS A RESULT...A CHANGE OVER TO ALLSNOW WILL HAPPEN QUICKLY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RUSHHOUR AREAWIDE...AND WILL REALLY BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE AFTER SUNSETWHEN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S. PLEASE SEETHE WSW AND HWO PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS SIGNIFICANTWINTER STORMS AND IT`S IMPACTS AFTER 00Z. THIS WILL ALSO BE FURTHERADDRESSED IN THE FORECAST ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON AT 20Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 MRX AFD: Keep hope alive... That's a very encouraging AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Keep hope alive... That's a very encouraging AFD It is just hope that the ULL has enough moisture to work with. In all reality it should considering the surface low should throw moisture back at the ULL this evening/tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It is just hope that the ULL has enough moisture to work with. In all reality it should considering the surface low should throw moisture back at the ULL this evening/tonight. I'm 60/40 on believing we'll see decent amounts right now. It's gonna depend on the moisture as you stated, and duration. If the low moves slowly over our region, we can be pleasantly surprised. If it pulls off too quickly to our northeast, we won't have much time for accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 SLP now stretching itself SE toward Jacksonville area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 SLP now stretching itself SE toward Jacksonville area. If we can turn the winds in more from the northeast, we'll be in business. The downsloping will end, and cold air can drain back into the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm still confident that the Valley will get good snow accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Both the RAP and HRRR still literally have no snow accumulation for the central and southern valley. I'm pulling for MRX on this one lol. Not saying it will happen to you, but these were the first model indications of a bust in Memphis. Of course, they were outliers at the time and got thrown out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Not saying it will happen to you, but these were the first model indications of a bust in Memphis. Of course, they were outliers at the time and got thrown out. They've since filled in a little bit. They show us finagling an inch or two, we'll see. Sorry about your bust man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Not saying it will happen to you, but these were the first model indications of a bust in Memphis. Of course, they were outliers at the time and got thrown out. Yeah, that's one thing that has me worried. All we can do is wait and see at the moment. Hate ya'll had the carrot pulled away at the last minute. We've all experienced that let down. It's no fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 They've since filled in a little bit. They show us finagling an inch or two, we'll see. Sorry about your bust man. It's alright; it's all about perspective and there are some good things about this. Gotta look at the bright side. In any case- we should actually know better than to believe models by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 12Z GFS spitting out almost verbatim what MRX is forecasting in amounts. Has a good 12-16 hour snow fall event for East TN first 4 hours or so the heaviest with the remaining hours light snow. GFS in short term not the greatest but it nearly perfect current picture with feature placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm still confident that the Valley will get good snow accumulations. I agree. The WSW has just been updated. MRX doubled down in my area. These comma heads are notoriously underdone on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 MRX just posted this on Facebook. All I got to say is wow if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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