Vol4Life Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 John, I'm not seeing an updated discussion from MRX. The last discussion I see is from 9:52 pm last night. Can you point me in the direction where MRX talks about no banding, cut snow totals, and not meeting warning criteria? I'd like to read what they have to say given that it's vastly different from other NWS offices. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The UK did very well with showing the retro grading 850s that come from NE Tn and spread west towards my area. It kept north of 40 in East Tennessee with sub freezing 850s from this point on the rest of the storm. Hopefully that is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 John, I'm not seeing an updated discussion from MRX. The last discussion I see is from 9:52 pm last night. Can you point me in the direction where MRX talks about no banding, cut snow totals, and not meeting warning criteria? I'd like to read what they have to say given that it's vastly different from other NWS offices. Thanks! From their AFD. THE DRY SLOT EXITS AS MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE MIDLEVELCIRCULATION SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST AROUND 00Z. ALL PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AREA-WIDE AT THIS TIME AS COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN. THE FORCING ALOFT IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG TONIGHT...AND THERE IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR SNOW BANDING. BUT THE SHEER DURATION THAT THE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES IN THE VALLEY TO 4 TO 8 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SW VA. ALL PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT WARNING AREA MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH BASED ON THE ABOVE THINKING AND BASED ON THE WARNING CRITERIA OF 6 INCHES IN 24 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE VALLEY SOUTH OF TRI-CITIES. BUT THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS WILL NOT BE CHANGED AT THIS POINT. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 HRRR and RAP are ugly for the Knoxville area, it'll be a miracle if we see 2 inches or more. But this has always been marginal for us. Hoping for a surprise but keeping expectations low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 From JKL. A STRONG JETSIGNATURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTH NORTHWARD FROM ALABAMA...THROUGHWEST CENTRAL TN AND KY...AND INTO INDIANA. THIS IS PULLING ANABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL GREATLYIMPACT US THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. OVERALL THIS SYSTEM IS CONTINUINGTO LOOK MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITHSOUNDINGS MUCH LIKE YOU WOULD SEE WITH SUMMER TIME THUNDERSTORMACTIVITY. THIS INCLUDES DEEP LAPSE RATES AND VEERING WINDS. THE ONLYDIFFERENCE IS MUCH COOLER LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES RESULTINGIN A STRONG INVERSION /HENCE THE WARM NOSE/. WITH SUCH A SET UP INPLACE...EXPECT HIGH SNOWFALL RATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BANDINGOF SNOW LIKELY...PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST LAPSERATES/INSTABILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Thanks John! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 HRRR and RAP are ugly for the Knoxville area, it'll be a miracle if we see 2 inches or more. But this has always been marginal for us. Hoping for a surprise but keeping expectations low. I have noticed that as well. They look bleak for a lot of us. Hoping the ULL and backside snows get us to 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Whatever model channel 10 uses just dropped 14.8 on Tri-Cities. 8 in my area. 9 in Morristown. 4 in Knoxville. 2.5 in Chattanooga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Whatever model channel 10 uses just dropped 14.8 on Tri-Cities. 8 in my area. 9 in Morristown. 4 in Knoxville. 2.5 in Chattanooga. I'd like to ride that model into battle. Anybody have a link to a good RPM model? Here is the WRF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 HRRR and RAP are torching the central valley, surface temps as high as 46! Have to hope they are not accurate haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 HRRR and RAP are torching the central valley, surface temps as high as 46! Have to hope they are not accurate haha. Is it due to downsloping or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 11z RAP 18 hour snow (still some light snow on the radar at this point): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Man, NW Tennessee got smoked in a huge storm last year and look at this forecast. Freezing rain and sleet before 9am, then snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow after 9am. High near 27. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. Total daytime snow and sleet accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yeesh...that's rough, but glorious for Nashville, which can't switch to snow to save itself right now. 11z RAP 18 hour snow (still some light snow on the radar at this point): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yeesh...that's rough, but glorious for Nashville, which can't switch to snow to save itself right now. Yeah I'd gladly get blanked this time if Nashville could get a big one. Pulling for those folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 RGEM shows the valley warm nose and the upper east TN downslope too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 RGEM shows the valley warm nose and the upper east TN downslope too. Looks like 1-40 is almost the dividing line. Those north get significant amounts, those south get a few inches. A very sharp cut-off there. As much as I don't like it...that scenario seems plausible. I've seen it happen several times. Morristown and north will likely see a decent thumping. Edit: the one thing to watch late tonight and early tomorrow is how long the snow lingers from Knoxville east. Sometimes with these slow moving systems, we can get a few extra hours of decent snow falling. I noticed that on WBIR's futurecast this morning. The snow seemed to want to linger around areas from Knoxville into the foothills. Here's to hoping.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Dry slot/ Downsloping has done a number on the valley. Looking westward now for radar trends and the ever important temperatures. If we warm well into the 40's as Stove's earlier posting stated, I'll become skeptical on a lot of snow in my backyard. Hoping we stay in the 30's, so we don't spend a lot of wasted time cooling the column back to freezing once the backside moisture moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Dry slot/ Downsloping has done a number on the valley. Looking westward now for radar trends and the ever important temperatures. If we warm well into the 40's as Stove's earlier posting stated, I'll become skeptical on a lot of snow in my backyard. Hoping we stay in the 30's, so we don't spend a lot of wasted time cooling the column back to freezing once the backside moisture moves in. I'll be shocked out of my gourd if surface temps get anywhere near as high as hrrr/rap had them earlier. Radarscope shows loudon county flirting with a mix right now. The dry slot is beginning to fill in. My hope is that we start getting some good rates and heavier returns change us over sooner rather than later. It was neat to see Nashville go from heavy rain to heavy snow (and sleet). This is very dynamic, it will be interesting to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'll be shocked out of my gourd if surface temps get anywhere near as high as hrrr/rap had them earlier. Radarscope shows loudon county flirting with a mix right now. The dry slot is beginning to fill in. My hope is that we start getting some good rates and heavier returns change us over sooner rather than later. It was neat to see Nashville go from heavy rain to heavy snow (and sleet). This is very dynamic, it will be interesting to watch unfold. I don't think we'll see anywhere near that model's temp projections if we keep filling in the radar to our southwest as is currently happening. Really is a nowcast situation. I'll be radar watching all day long. Glad it's a slow work day. And yeah...big congrats to Nashville and middle TN. Been a long time waiting for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Man Nashville is going to get buried. I feel bad for the west TN peeps though. Big bust for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Man Nashville is going to get buried. I feel bad for the west TN peeps though. Big bust for them. Yeah, there are some really strong radar returns right over Nash. I'm sure some of it is probably sleet...but I'd say much of it is very big, wet snowflakes falling. I bet weather peeps have their face plastered to the window...or they're out standing in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmschatterbox Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Hey guys, Do we know about what time it will start here in the valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just getting on this morning don't like seeing MRX early morning disco though i'm not overly surprised but I'm not seeing a major dryslot here. The long duration is something that I knew would be the primary snow maker for the ETN valley, most models have shown snowing for essentially 24 hours for parts of ETN. Mesoscale Analysis shows 1004 MB SLP sitting over Birmingham currently moving ENE toward NE GA. Approx when is transfer modeled to occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm in crossville and debating whether I should stay or go back home. Is it possible I get completely shut out here ? Or will the elevation help some ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Hey guys, Do we know about what time it will start here in the valley? Well, MRX said 4pm, but p-type radar is already showing some mixing in the area. Downtown Knoxville already reporting some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The downsloping is brutal. It was 35 at my house in chatt. At my job site in Polk county it is 46 and the sun is trying to peek through. Unreal. I think this one may be a non-starter down here. Especially close to the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yeah, there are some really strong radar returns right over Nash. I'm sure some of it is probably sleet...but I'd say much of it is very big, wet snowflakes falling. I bet weather peeps have their face plastered to the window...or they're out standing in it. Man it is like there is a water hosed turned on the I-65 corridor big flakes really adding up fast here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmschatterbox Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Well, MRX said 4pm, but p-type radar is already showing some mixing in the area. Downtown Knoxville already reporting some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmschatterbox Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Thanks Stove! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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