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Jan 22-23 Winter Storm Event..."The Middle Tennessee Mauler"


Carvers Gap

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John, I'm not seeing an updated discussion from MRX. The last discussion I see is from 9:52 pm last night. Can you point me in the direction where MRX talks about no banding, cut snow totals, and not meeting warning criteria? I'd like to read what they have to say given that it's vastly different from other NWS offices. Thanks!

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John, I'm not seeing an updated discussion from MRX. The last discussion I see is from 9:52 pm last night. Can you point me in the direction where MRX talks about no banding, cut snow totals, and not meeting warning criteria? I'd like to read what they have to say given that it's vastly different from other NWS offices. Thanks!

 

 

From their AFD.

 

 

 

THE DRY SLOT EXITS AS MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE MIDLEVEL

CIRCULATION SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST AROUND 00Z. ALL PRECIP WILL

CHANGE TO SNOW AREA-WIDE AT THIS TIME AS COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN.

THE FORCING ALOFT IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG TONIGHT...AND THERE IS

NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR SNOW BANDING. BUT THE SHEER DURATION THAT

THE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOST

OF THE DAY SATURDAY...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO

4 INCHES IN THE VALLEY TO 4 TO 8 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SW VA. ALL

PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE CURRENT WARNING AREA MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH BASED ON THE ABOVE

THINKING AND BASED ON THE WARNING CRITERIA OF 6 INCHES IN 24

HOURS...WHICH SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE VALLEY SOUTH OF

TRI-CITIES. BUT THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS WILL NOT BE CHANGED

AT THIS POINT. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL

REMAIN UNCHANGED.

 

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From JKL.

 

 

 

A STRONG JET
SIGNATURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTH NORTHWARD FROM ALABAMA...THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL TN AND KY...AND INTO INDIANA. THIS IS PULLING AN
ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL GREATLY
IMPACT US THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. OVERALL THIS SYSTEM IS CONTINUING
TO LOOK MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SOUNDINGS MUCH LIKE YOU WOULD SEE WITH SUMMER TIME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THIS INCLUDES DEEP LAPSE RATES AND VEERING WINDS. THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IS MUCH COOLER LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES RESULTING
IN A STRONG INVERSION /HENCE THE WARM NOSE/. WITH SUCH A SET UP IN
PLACE...EXPECT HIGH SNOWFALL RATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BANDING
OF SNOW LIKELY...PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST LAPSE
RATES/INSTABILITY.
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Man, NW Tennessee got smoked in a huge storm last year and look at this forecast.

 

 

 

Freezing rain and sleet before 9am, then snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow after 9am. High near 27. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. Total daytime snow and sleet accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
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RGEM shows the valley warm nose and the upper east TN downslope too.

 

 

 

Looks like 1-40 is almost the dividing line.  Those north get significant amounts, those south get a few inches. A very sharp cut-off there.

 

As much as I don't like it...that scenario seems plausible.  I've seen it happen several times.  Morristown and north will likely see a decent thumping.

 

Edit:  the one thing to watch late tonight and early tomorrow is how long the snow lingers from Knoxville east.  Sometimes with these slow moving systems, we can get a few extra hours of decent snow falling.  I noticed that on WBIR's futurecast this morning.  The snow seemed to want to linger around areas from Knoxville into the foothills. Here's to hoping....

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Dry slot/ Downsloping has done a number on the valley.  Looking westward now for radar trends and the ever important temperatures. If we warm well into the 40's as Stove's earlier posting stated, I'll become skeptical on a lot of snow in my backyard.   Hoping we stay in the 30's, so we don't spend a lot of wasted time cooling the column back to freezing once the backside moisture moves in. 

 

MRX_0.png

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Dry slot/ Downsloping has done a number on the valley.  Looking westward now for radar trends and the ever important temperatures. If we warm well into the 40's as Stove's earlier posting stated, I'll become skeptical on a lot of snow in my backyard.   Hoping we stay in the 30's, so we don't spend a lot of wasted time cooling the column back to freezing once the backside moisture moves in. 

 

MRX_0.png

 

I'll be shocked out of my gourd if surface temps get anywhere near as high as hrrr/rap had them earlier.  Radarscope shows loudon county flirting with a mix right now.  The dry slot is beginning to fill in.  My hope is that we start getting some good rates and heavier returns change us over sooner rather than later.  It was neat to see Nashville go from heavy rain to heavy snow (and sleet).  This is very dynamic, it will be interesting to watch unfold.

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I'll be shocked out of my gourd if surface temps get anywhere near as high as hrrr/rap had them earlier.  Radarscope shows loudon county flirting with a mix right now.  The dry slot is beginning to fill in.  My hope is that we start getting some good rates and heavier returns change us over sooner rather than later.  It was neat to see Nashville go from heavy rain to heavy snow (and sleet).  This is very dynamic, it will be interesting to watch unfold.

 

I don't think we'll see anywhere near that model's temp projections if we keep filling in the radar to our southwest as is currently happening. Really is a nowcast situation.  I'll be radar watching all day long.  Glad it's a slow work day. 

 

And yeah...big congrats to Nashville and middle TN.  Been a long time waiting for them. 

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Man Nashville is going to get buried. I feel bad for the west TN peeps though. Big bust for them.

 Yeah, there are some really strong radar returns right over Nash.  I'm sure some of it is probably sleet...but I'd say much of it is very big, wet snowflakes falling.  I bet weather peeps have their face plastered to the window...or they're out standing in it. 

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Just getting on this morning don't like seeing MRX early morning disco though i'm not overly surprised but I'm not seeing a major dryslot here.  The long duration is something that I knew would be the primary snow maker for  the ETN valley, most models have shown snowing for essentially 24 hours for parts of ETN.

 

Mesoscale Analysis shows 1004 MB SLP sitting over Birmingham currently moving ENE toward NE GA.  Approx when is transfer modeled to occur?  

 

 

post-11228-0-14053400-1453470646_thumb.j

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 Yeah, there are some really strong radar returns right over Nash.  I'm sure some of it is probably sleet...but I'd say much of it is very big, wet snowflakes falling.  I bet weather peeps have their face plastered to the window...or they're out standing in it. 

Man it is like there is a water hosed turned on the I-65 corridor big flakes really adding up fast here

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