Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 stinking data skipped 12-0z,what do you see for bna? Maps are stuck on hour 12. At that point Nashville has about an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 must be double checking to see if Nashville is right,been so long..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yep, and thumps the plateau hard and quick. Crossville looks to have 5 inches of snow by hour 12 on the clown. Gonna guess it's going to miss that one. But I could be wrong. I was hoping heavy precip would cool things down here but the WAA is powerful with this one. Cooperative 850s are a long way away right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Euro still stuck. Must be a glitch in the matrix tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Euro still stuck. Must be a glitch in the matrix tonight. yeah,my text is still going but is missing 18 and 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 yeah,my text is still going but is missing 18 and 0z Apparently all the vendors are having problems rolling it out tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Lol the Euro is broke. The storm is so big it finally broke a model. Lol. The biggest Euro run ever and it's stuck at 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Lol the Euro is broke. The storm is so big it finally broke a model. Lol. The biggest Euro run ever and it's stuck at 12 hours. quite annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 hrrr sucks,last run..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 From JKL: (looks like ZR could be more of a problem than expected in parts of S. KY & N TN.) NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY455 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)ISSUED AT 454 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016STEADY PRECIP IS OVERSPREADING OUR SOUTHERN 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THECWA AS OF 3AM. WE/VE HAD MULTIPLE REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSSTHE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AS THE PRECIP MOVED INTO THE AREA. THIS IS ONPAR WITH INFORMATION WE RECEIVED FROM OHX AFTER THEY CONDUCTED ASPECIAL BALLOON LAUNCH...NOTING THAT THE WARM NOSE WAS MUCH MOREPRONOUNCED THAN MODELS WERE PICKING UP ON. BY 2AM...WILLIAMSBURGIN WHITLEY COUNTY HAD ALREADY RECEIVED A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICEACCUMULATION. AS SUCH...THE BIGGEST CHANCE IN THE NEAR TERMFORECAST WAS TO UP THE ICE TOTALS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THEREGION. NOW...AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS INTHE FORECAST THROUGH AROUND 12Z...WITH AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE TENTHSOF AN INCH POSSIBLE ALONG THE TN BORDER INTO THE MID MORNING. ASPRECIP PROGRESSED NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...PERRYCOUNTY WATER TREATMENT PLANT REPORTED SLEET ONGOING FOR THE LASTHOUR. AS THE PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A COLDERAIRMASS...EXPECT THE WARM NOSE TO BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED...ANDSLEET TO TRANSITION TO SNOW NORTH OF THE JKL OFFICE.OVERALL...PRECIP TYPES WERE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THEEARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH TWEAKS MADE BASED ON NEW MODEL TRENDSFOR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 MRX said that the valley below Tri-Cities was unlikely to get warning criteria snow but that they were keeping the warning in place. They referenced 6 inches in 24 hours as being what they were basing that on. Said that there wasn't going to be snow banding and that the dry slot would probably cut accumulations too. But that the duration of the event would produce 1-4 inches in the southern Valley and 4-8 in the Northern sections. Their new snow map basically cut totals in half in some of the northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm wondering if the heavier snow totals in central KY will verify. Some mets are calling for 10-18 inches all way up into Lexington. It appears the precip shield has hit a wall up north. Perhaps the system is slightly south than expected. One thing for certain--areas in southern KY that never see the dry slot will get hammered all day long with freezing rain and then heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I don't know if there's a huge difference in what is expected here vs Kentucky, but MRX specifically says this won't be very convective and there's not much chance of banding, while JKL said it was as convective as a day with summer thunderstorms and that there would be major banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 MRX said that the valley below Tri-Cities was unlikely to get warning criteria snow but that they were keeping the warning in place. They referenced 6 inches in 24 hours as being what they were basing that on. Said that there wasn't going to be snow banding and that the dry slot would probably cut accumulations too. But that the duration of the event would produce 1-4 inches in the southern Valley and 4-8 in the Northern sections. Their new snow map basically cut totals in half in some of the northern areas. That was my concern yesterday. Everything hinges on back-side snow, and it can be very fickle. But a decent 4-5 inch snow is satisfying, and there is still the potential for a surprise or two. I think the Morristown area will do nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 MRX said that the valley below Tri-Cities was unlikely to get warning criteria snow but that they were keeping the warning in place. They referenced 6 inches in 24 hours as being what they were basing that on. Said that there wasn't going to be snow banding and that the dry slot would probably cut accumulations too. But that the duration of the event would produce 1-4 inches in the southern Valley and 4-8 in the Northern sections. Their new snow map basically cut totals in half in some of the northern areas. My biggest question is if the warning criteria isn't going to be met in the valley, then why keep the warning in place and not downgrade to an advisory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I don't know if there's a huge difference in what is expected here vs Kentucky, but MRX specifically says this won't be very convective and there's not much chance of banding, while JKL said it was as convective as a day with summer thunderstorms and that there would be major banding. Wow...completely opposite wording from two NWS offices that border each other. I'm pulling for JKL. If we get banding or convective type snow developing later in the day, that will make a huge difference in our snow totals. Edit: that radar pic I posted clearly shows intense banding going on northwest of Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wow...completely opposite wording from two NWS offices that border each other. I'm pulling for JKL. If we get banding or convective type snow developing later in the day, that will make a huge difference in our snow totals. Edit: that radar pic I posted clearly shows intense banding going on northwest of Nashville. The back side has been potent in Arkansas and heading into West Tennessee. 2+ inch per hour rates and thundersnow in Arkansas. I just hope any of that makes it here before it dies out due to the hand off to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 My biggest question is if the warning criteria isn't going to be met in the valley, then why keep the warning in place and not downgrade to an advisory? They almost never downgrade or upgrade an ongoing advisory in the MRX office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 They almost never downgrade or upgrade an ongoing advisory in the MRX office. Technically, the warning isn't even in effect yet. It goes into effect at 1:00 PM EST, so I would think that they would be able to downgrade now if they wanted to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Dryslot is already moving in. That was really quick. Models missed this big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 For the Great Valley it all hinges on how quickly we can cool when the back side snow moves in. Areas on the plateau and toward the north will do better, because they will change over the quickest. For Knoxville and the central valley, a convective band would certainly help cool the column and get snow started sooner. Temperatures in the valley this afternoon will make all the difference. Hopefully, we won't warm too much as we sit in that dang dry slot. DIe dry slot, die! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It seems to be flying along. The GFS and NAM were way off on timing. Upper East Tennessee is getting downsloped badly from Cocke to Unicoi/Washington County. The dry slot is sapping southern Middle/Southern Plateau and is rapidly approaching East Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Dryslot is already moving in. That was really quick. Models missed this big time. Yes, I wonder if a bit of downsloping is helping it along in northeast TN. I noticed a drying trend heading north toward the Tri-Cities moving off of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 For the Great Valley it all hinges on how quickly we can cool when the back side snow moves in. Areas on the plateau and toward the north will do better, because they will change over the quickest. For Knoxville and the central valley, a convective band would certainly help cool the column and get snow started sooner. Temperatures in the valley this afternoon will make all the difference. Hopefully, we won't warm too much as we sit in that dang dry slot. DIe dry slot, die! I'd rather see the dry slot now during the rain times than during the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It seems to be flying along. The GFS and NAM were way off on timing. Upper East Tennessee is getting downsloped badly from Cocke to Unicoi/Washington County. The dry slot is sapping southern Middle/Southern Plateau and is rapidly approaching East Tennessee. As you said yesterday--the microclimates of East TN make forecasting winter weather events here a lesson in humility. I bet they have quite the stash of Excedrin at MRX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It appears there's pretty rapid radar filling in Southern Middle Tennessee. That's good news. The current flow is perfect for down sloping in NE Tn. Some of the models nailed that pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 3" so far. Winds @10-15. Been a pretty amazing band up to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That's awesome Carvers. Glad to hear it. We also had a storm last year where JC was downsloped and you did very well. Seems to be a reversal in the tendencies over the last couple of years! Holding out hope for the ULL and backlash here in JC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 3" so far. Winds @10-15. Been a pretty amazing band up to this point. Score! Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I noticed that--and that's good news. The shorter the time we spend in the dry air, the less we warm. I don't want to spend half the time in the backside precip shield waiting for the column to cool sufficiently for snow. The sooner the switch, the better we'll do in the valley. According to the local guys, as long as we switch to Snow by 10 PM, then we will get some good accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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