1234snow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Need Stove to post the 0z GFS clown map. Looks massive for MA and not bad for the eastern portion of the valley, central points north. Beware, some of the short term models...many show a mix to begin. The HRRR and RAP are killing me. I know I shouldn't trust the rain and snow lines on them but it is a bit disturbing of how much rain they show at the start. RadarScope currently has everything as rain and that is normally a pretty good indicator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 The HRRR and RAP are killing me. I know I shouldn't trust the rain and snow lines on them but it is a bit disturbing of how much rain they show at the start. RadarScope currently has everything as rain and that is normally a pretty good indicator. I think it is far to always test one model vs another. The 0z CMC just came out. Like the 0z GFS, it is stronger from here to points eastward. It also handles the onset of precip pretty well. Mix that gets heavier and causes heights to crash. Looks reasonable. If the HRRR, scores...it would be an outright coup. The RAP is almost always wrong here. They don't have a ton of support. I normally just look at those for hints of low positions and qpf. Not discounting the RAP...but I just don't like it. If we get heavy rates...tough imagining heavy rain not turning to snow pretty quickly. But sure, something to think about... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I wonder how far fetched it is that this actually becomes a full fledged real Miller A... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Here's a snow accumulation map from David Aldrich: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Here's a snow accumulation map from David Aldrich: Looks like he is buying the GFS its essentially pretty close to GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 HRRR is further north than the NAM at the end of the run,but that's probably like the NAM at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Disconnect between global and mesoscale models. Of note, the 0z CMC and 0z GFS are much stronger. Tough forecast. 000FXUS64 KMRX 220252AFDMRXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN952 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016.DISCUSSION...CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR SURE...AND EVEN THIS CLOSETO THE EVENT STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP TYPES.PRECIPITATION JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND A LOOK ATLATEST MODELS INDICATE NO REASON FOR MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS POINTFOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...OBS SHOW TEMPS RUNNING A BITLOWER THAN FORECAST...AND WHILE TEMPS LIKELY TO RISE A BIT ASPRECIP MOVES IN...STILL WILL ADD POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING RAINTO ALL BUT CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VALLEY AND FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL ALSO ADDA BIT MORE SNOW TO FAR NORTH. OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TOTEMPS AND DEW POINTS. WILL LEAVE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AS THEY AREFOR NOW. UPDATE OUT SOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks like he is buying the GFS its essentially pretty close to GFS. That's what I gathered. He did say that the 6-9 range may move west depending on the timing of the transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM being discounted by WPC: SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGETHE 00Z NAM IS A NORTHWARD OUTLIER ALOFT SATURDAY MORNING BEFOREBECOMING A SLOW OUTLIER THEREAFTER -- THE NAM HAS A BIAS OFOCCASIONALLY BEING TOO SLOW. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/12ZECMWF/12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGECONFIDENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM being discounted by WPC: 0z NAM was nuts. Loop that model. Watch what it does w/ the secondary over Hatteras. It is crazy. For your entertainment, check it out on Tropical Tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freezing Fog Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Todd Howell's take... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN1020 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016 .DISCUSSION... JUST REISSUED THE ZONES. LATEST CHANGES INCLUDE THE 2ND PERIOD.MODELS CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD A QUICKER TRANSITION OVER TO SNOWIN THE MORNING. SHOULD BE ALL SNOW ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTHALF OF THE MID STATE BY NOON. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LOW. ITSCURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS FEATURE IS STILLEXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE EAST AND WILL CROSS NORTHERN AL INTHE MORNING. STRONG SFC LOW WILL BE DISPLACED ABOUT 100 MILES ORSO EAST OF THE UPPER HIGH. SO...SHOULD SEE GOOD LOWER LEVEL CAAFEED INTO THAT DEVELOPING DEFORMATIONAL AREA. AT ANY RATE...PRECIP TOTALS DID CLIMB ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THEWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...DUE TO THE EXPECTED FASTER TRANSITIONOVER TO ALL SNOW. FOR THE 1ST PERIOD...STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THAT NORTHWEST CORNER.HOWEVER...CURRENT GRIDS AND ZONES DO INDICATE ICE AND SLEET ACCUMPOTENTIAL...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE WARNING CRITERIATHROUGH 6 AM. THE WSW IS STILL SET TO TAKE EFFECT AT 6 AM TO THESOUTH OF STEWART...MONTGOMERY AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Rain is the p-type so far everywhere except for Dalton Georgia of all places. They are 36 with light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Rain is the p-type so far everywhere except for Dalton Georgia of all places. They are 36 with light snow. I'm driving north and I was in dalton an hour ago and it was raining. I'm east of class cleveland now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yeah I'm 34 with raw wet rain... Though I didn't expect to get to 34 tonight this far south. NE wind must be helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I am at 32 still, MRX updated and now my low is forecast to be 29 with freezing rain after a couple hours of rain. I was forecast to have a low of 32 earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm driving north and I was in dalton an hour ago and it was raining. I'm east of class cleveland now Their airport is reporting light snow for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Their airport is reporting light snow for whatever reason. yeah I don't think that's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Says snow http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Dalton&state=GA&site=FFC&textField1=34.769&textField2=-84.9759#.VqG99PkrKM8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You guys think I will see some decent snow If I stay in caryville ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You guys think I will see some decent snow If I stay in caryville ? That's about 15 minutes south of me. There's about 5 inches on the ground right now and the forecast if for 6-9 more. I would actually recommend getting a hotel at exit 141, the second caryville exit, It's about 600 feet higher in elevation and normally it snows more there than at 134. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 How important is tonight's Euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 .AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION. FLYING CONDITIONS GOING DOWNHILL FAST TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW NOWMOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI HAS SPREAD RAIN NORTHWARDACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH LOW CEILINGSDEVELOPING QUICKLY. LOOKING FOR WINTRY MIX IN NORTHWEST AFTERMIDNIGHT CHANGING TO SNOW JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH SNOWCONTINUING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS FOR NASHVILLE THINK RAINMOSTLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND 15ZAND CONTINUE DURING THE DAY. CROSSVILLE WILL REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH21Z FRIDAY THEN CHANGE TO SNOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PART OFFRIDAY NIGHT. NEEDLESS TO SAY FLYING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE GOODFOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 How important is tonight's Euro run? Not really important at all imo. It's underway now and what's going to happen will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Not really important at all imo. It's underway now and what's going to happen will. John, I'm not going to be able to view the Euro. Could you tell me the snow amounts for the Central Valley when it comes out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 0z GFS snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 euro is colder right out the gate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 0z RGEM snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 euro is colder right out the gate Yep, and thumps the plateau hard and quick. Crossville looks to have 5 inches of snow by hour 12 on the clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 stinking data skipped 12-0z,what do you see for bna? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.