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Jan 22-23 Winter Storm Event..."The Middle Tennessee Mauler"


Carvers Gap

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Need Stove to post the 0z GFS clown map.  Looks massive for MA and not bad for the eastern portion of the valley, central points north.  Beware, some of the short term models...many show a mix to begin.

 

The HRRR and RAP are killing me. I know I shouldn't trust the rain and snow lines on them but it is a bit disturbing of how much rain they show at the start. RadarScope currently has everything as rain and that is normally a pretty good indicator.

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The HRRR and RAP are killing me. I know I shouldn't trust the rain and snow lines on them but it is a bit disturbing of how much rain they show at the start. RadarScope currently has everything as rain and that is normally a pretty good indicator.

 

I think it is far to always test one model vs another.  The 0z CMC just came out.  Like the 0z GFS, it is stronger from here to points eastward.  It also handles the onset of precip pretty well.  Mix that gets heavier and causes heights to crash.  Looks reasonable.  If the HRRR, scores...it would be an outright coup.  The RAP is almost always wrong here.  They don't have a ton of support.  I normally just look at those for hints of low positions and qpf.  Not discounting the RAP...but I just don't like it.  If we get heavy rates...tough imagining heavy rain not turning to snow pretty quickly.  But sure, something to think about...

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Disconnect between global and mesoscale models.  Of note, the 0z CMC and 0z GFS are much stronger.  Tough forecast.

 

000
FXUS64 KMRX 220252
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
952 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR SURE...AND EVEN THIS CLOSE
TO THE EVENT STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP TYPES.
PRECIPITATION JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND A LOOK AT
LATEST MODELS INDICATE NO REASON FOR MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS POINT
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER...OBS SHOW TEMPS RUNNING A BIT
LOWER THAN FORECAST...AND WHILE TEMPS LIKELY TO RISE A BIT AS
PRECIP MOVES IN...STILL WILL ADD POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING RAIN
TO ALL BUT CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VALLEY AND FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL ALSO ADD
A BIT MORE SNOW TO FAR NORTH.
OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. WILL LEAVE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AS THEY ARE
FOR NOW. UPDATE OUT SOON.

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NAM being discounted by WPC:

 

 

 



SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z NAM IS A NORTHWARD OUTLIER ALOFT SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING A SLOW OUTLIER THEREAFTER -- THE NAM HAS A BIAS OF
OCCASIONALLY BEING TOO SLOW. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z
ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE. 
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1020 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

JUST REISSUED THE ZONES. LATEST CHANGES INCLUDE THE 2ND PERIOD.
MODELS CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD A QUICKER TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW
IN THE MORNING. SHOULD BE ALL SNOW ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE MID STATE BY NOON.

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LOW. ITS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS FEATURE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE EAST AND WILL CROSS NORTHERN AL IN
THE MORNING. STRONG SFC LOW WILL BE DISPLACED ABOUT 100 MILES OR
SO EAST OF THE UPPER HIGH. SO...SHOULD SEE GOOD LOWER LEVEL CAA
FEED INTO THAT DEVELOPING DEFORMATIONAL AREA.

AT ANY RATE...PRECIP TOTALS DID CLIMB ABOUT AN INCH ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...DUE TO THE EXPECTED FASTER TRANSITION
OVER TO ALL SNOW.

FOR THE 1ST PERIOD...STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THAT NORTHWEST CORNER.
HOWEVER...CURRENT GRIDS AND ZONES DO INDICATE ICE AND SLEET ACCUM
POTENTIAL...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE WARNING CRITERIA
THROUGH 6 AM. THE WSW IS STILL SET TO TAKE EFFECT AT 6 AM TO THE
SOUTH OF STEWART...MONTGOMERY AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES.

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You guys think I will see some decent snow If I stay in caryville ?

That's about 15 minutes south of me. There's about 5 inches on the ground right now and the forecast if for 6-9 more. I would actually recommend getting a hotel at exit 141, the second caryville exit, It's about 600 feet higher in elevation and normally it snows more there than at 134.

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.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FLYING CONDITIONS GOING DOWNHILL FAST TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW NOW
MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI HAS SPREAD RAIN NORTHWARD
ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH LOW CEILINGS
DEVELOPING QUICKLY. LOOKING FOR WINTRY MIX IN NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT CHANGING TO SNOW JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH SNOW
CONTINUING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS FOR NASHVILLE THINK RAIN
MOSTLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND 15Z
AND CONTINUE DURING THE DAY. CROSSVILLE WILL REMAIN LIQUID THROUGH
21Z FRIDAY THEN CHANGE TO SNOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF
FRIDAY NIGHT. NEEDLESS TO SAY FLYING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE GOOD
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

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