jaxjagman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That low is further south. WAA will not be as strong if that graphic is correct. Interesting development. Glad to see actual implications in the TN Valley wx. Looks right to me Carver.If you go advance to 6 hours mesoscale has the same exact spot 1004mb on the MS/AL line as the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 For us folks living down stream of Nashville, how strong that primary gets is important. If it gets to 998, even if it is a bit further south it is going to be pumping in some warm air. Shawn, how is the actual strength compared to the models? 1 MB weaker than the NAM, and on right on par in strength with GFS. Don't have the euro up. Will check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks right to me Carver.If you go advance to 6 hours mesoscale has the same exact spot 1004mb on the MS/AL line as the NAM After SLP broadened out then tightened/strengthened again over the last hour it is close to guidance, I think it is a smidge both South and East now but only a little.. In the original post earlier it was a good bit south, it seems to be getting closer to guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That link the SL and ULL are still with the updated image from WPC both off target. For the SL to end up in Northern MS then slide East it will have to slide essentially almost due north from current position. I have a hard time seeing that happen. All modeling indicates it doing just that. Once it's "captured" it will go north. RGEM at 12z indicated it even going northwest for a while..... All looks according to plan so far to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 All modeling indicates it doing just that. Once it's "captured" it will go north. RGEM at 12z indicated it even going northwest for a while..... All looks according to plan so far to me. I saw a lot of NE NNE in models over the last 24 hrs I did see the RGEM though with its NW jog back into N MS out of AL and NAM with pretty close to due N movement for a frame. I was just monitoring SLP placement and it seeming off at that moment in time. Its really dang close at this moment to guidance as I mentioned earlier. This is a sloppy loose SLP currently so I should have expected oddities, but i'm eager to watch in real time for anything that may appear abnormal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 0Z NAM Clown: EDIT to hour 45 earlier image was to hour 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 ^ugh. I guess this is payback for last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Something interesting to note: TWC is calling this system a Miller A type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Another thing to watch, if that convection gets stronger it will cut off the moisture conveyor belt heading north(that should go in the SE forums list of things we say about winter storms). That would impede qpf amounts in the Valley. If I recall if the convention is moving parallel to the Gulf Coast then it cuts moisture transport off. If it is moving perpendicular to the coast then it doesn't cut moisture off. A many of our storms have gotten ruined by Gulf convection that's for sure. Weather Channel just called this a Miller A storm which I kinda of disagree with. I think it is a hybrid between an A and a B. Maybe we can call it a Miller B2A? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Most miller b's are northern stream dominant before the transfer. So it's a hybrid or oddly positioned B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 If I recall if the convention is moving parallel to the Gulf Coast then it cuts moisture transport off. If it is moving perpendicular to the coast then it doesn't cut moisture off. A many of our storms have gotten ruined by Gulf convection that's for sure. Weather Channel just called this a Miller A storm which I kinda of disagree with. I think it is a hybrid between an A and a B. Maybe we can call it a Miller B2A? I was half-way messing w/ everybody. As far as A or B...if it hands energy off then it has some B in it. If it just cuts off and rolls through MS, Al, and GA then up the EC...it is an A. Hybrid IMO, because the low never really gets into the TN or OH valleys in order to transfer energy to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Most miller b's are northern stream dominant before the transfer. So it's a hybrid or oddly positioned B. The handoff from northern Alabama to the SE along the GA coast is some odd happenings. Will be interested to see how that actually works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I was half-way messing w/ everybody. As far as A or B...if it hands energy off then it has some B in it. If it just cuts off and rolls through MS, Al, and GA then up the EC...it is an A. Hybrid IMO, because the low never really gets into the TN or OH valleys in order to transfer energy to the coast. So, is the weather channel incorrect in calling it a Miller A type system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 So, is the weather channel incorrect in calling it a Miller A type system?Wouldn't be the first time they were incorrect.Bottom line, if energy transfer is occurring, it's not a straight A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wouldn't be the first time they were incorrect. Bottom line, if energy transfer is occurring, it's not a straight A. That's the truth about TWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Current SLP location: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/frames_mob.php?sector=18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Just updated after posting... Here is the update: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/frames_mob.php?sector=18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bryanemtp Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I am a total lurker here but I really appreciate all you guy's information and love doing the research and watching the events. IMO if latest RGEM verifies, that is crippling for Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I got a question for the weather gurus. If the system started to speed up and the transition to Snow in the Central Valley happened earlier on Friday, would that be a good thing in terms of accumulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I know its the GFS in short term, but its blessing the Central Valley so far. Hr. 30 parts of Knox county approaching double digit snow. Still snowing at this point on the GFS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 0Z GFS.... Almost looks like MRX painted it. Essentially bottom half of the Central Valley showing 4-8 upper half of central valley 6-10", looks like down sloping hurts a little against the Mtns. Southern Valley really Hamilton and Bradley County 1-3" Nash... GFS wants to shift heavy snow axis west a bit. Same thing for Mem. Tri of course stays the winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Need Stove to post the 0z GFS clown map. Looks massive for MA and not bad for the eastern portion of the valley, central points north. Beware, some of the short term models...many show a mix to begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks kind of wimpy around middle Tennessee, I hope it's a little more beefy there. Carvers noted it looks quite a bit like prior euro runs and I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 0Z GFS.... Almost looks like MRX painted it. Essentially bottom half of the Central Valley showing 4-8 upper half of central valley 6-10", looks like down sloping hurts a little against the Mtns. Southern Valley really Hamilton and Bradley County 1-3" Nash... GFS wants to shift heavy snow axis west a bit. Same thing for Mem. Tri of course stays the Not sure i believe the GFS,brings the low around Birmingham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bryanemtp Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Did you see the RGEM War Eagle? Crushed Nashville!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Not sure i believe the GFS,brings the low around Birmingham I'm not sure what to believe with the SLP track since I've been watching live obs, but the way the GFS moves the SLP looks more natural to me then others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Speaking of which just updated the SLP position. Sneaking into southern AL even touching Northern GOM. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/frames_mob.php?sector=18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wonder if the Hurricane Hunters who were out sampling about 3 or 4 hours ago if their data is now getting accounted for in models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Speaking of which just updated the SLP position. Sneaking into southern AL even touching Northern GOM. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/frames_mob.php?sector=18 Might be right with the new data,we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wonder if the Hurricane Hunters who were out sampling about 3 or 4 hours ago if their data is now getting accounted for in models. Not sure,i know Nashville is doing balloons every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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