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Jan 22-23 Winter Storm Event..."The Middle Tennessee Mauler"


Carvers Gap

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That low is further south.  WAA will not be as strong if that graphic is correct.  Interesting development.  Glad to see actual implications in the TN Valley wx.

Looks right to me Carver.If you go advance to 6 hours mesoscale has the same exact spot 1004mb on the MS/AL line as the NAM

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For us folks living down stream of Nashville, how strong that primary gets is important.  If it gets to 998, even if it is a bit further south it is going to be pumping in some warm air.  Shawn, how is the actual strength compared to the models?

1 MB weaker than the NAM, and on right on par in strength with GFS.  Don't have the euro up.  Will check.

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Looks right to me Carver.If you go advance to 6 hours mesoscale has the same exact spot 1004mb on the MS/AL line as the NAM

After SLP broadened out then tightened/strengthened again over the last hour it is close to guidance, I think it is a smidge both South and East now but only a little..  In the original post earlier it was a good bit south, it seems to be getting closer to guidance.

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That link the SL and ULL are still with the updated image from WPC both off target. For the SL to end up in Northern MS then slide East it will have to slide essentially almost due north from current position. I have a hard time seeing that happen.

All modeling indicates it doing just that. Once it's "captured" it will go north. RGEM at 12z indicated it even going northwest for a while..... All looks according to plan so far to me.

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All modeling indicates it doing just that. Once it's "captured" it will go north. RGEM at 12z indicated it even going northwest for a while..... All looks according to plan so far to me.

I saw a lot of NE NNE in models over the last 24 hrs I did see the RGEM though with its NW jog back into N MS out of AL and NAM with pretty close to due N movement for a frame.  I was just monitoring SLP placement and it seeming off at that moment in time.  Its really dang close at this moment to guidance as I mentioned earlier.  This is a sloppy loose SLP currently so I should have expected oddities, but i'm eager to watch in real time for anything that may appear abnormal.

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Another thing to watch, if that convection gets stronger it will cut off the moisture conveyor belt heading north(that should go in the SE forums list of things we say about winter storms). That would impede qpf amounts in the Valley.

If I recall if the convention is moving parallel to the Gulf Coast then it cuts moisture transport off. If it is moving perpendicular to the coast then it doesn't cut moisture off. A many of our storms have gotten ruined by Gulf convection that's for sure.

Weather Channel just called this a Miller A storm which I kinda of disagree with. I think it is a hybrid between an A and a B. Maybe we can call it a Miller B2A?

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If I recall if the convention is moving parallel to the Gulf Coast then it cuts moisture transport off. If it is moving perpendicular to the coast then it doesn't cut moisture off. A many of our storms have gotten ruined by Gulf convection that's for sure.

Weather Channel just called this a Miller A storm which I kinda of disagree with. I think it is a hybrid between an A and a B. Maybe we can call it a Miller B2A?

 

I was half-way messing w/ everybody. :whistle:  As far as A or B...if it hands energy off then it has some B in it.  If it just cuts off and rolls through MS, Al, and GA then  up the EC...it is an A.  Hybrid IMO, because the low never really gets into the TN or OH valleys in order to transfer energy to the coast. 

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I was half-way messing w/ everybody. :whistle: As far as A or B...if it hands energy off then it has some B in it. If it just cuts off and rolls through MS, Al, and GA then up the EC...it is an A. Hybrid IMO, because the low never really gets into the TN or OH valleys in order to transfer energy to the coast.

So, is the weather channel incorrect in calling it a Miller A type system?

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0Z GFS....  Almost looks like MRX painted it.  Essentially bottom half of the Central Valley showing 4-8 upper half of central valley 6-10", looks like down sloping hurts a little against the Mtns. Southern Valley really Hamilton and Bradley County 1-3"

 

Nash...  GFS wants to shift heavy snow axis west a bit.  Same thing for Mem.

 

Tri of course stays the winner.

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0Z GFS....  Almost looks like MRX painted it.  Essentially bottom half of the Central Valley showing 4-8 upper half of central valley 6-10", looks like down sloping hurts a little against the Mtns. Southern Valley really Hamilton and Bradley County 1-3"

 

Nash...  GFS wants to shift heavy snow axis west a bit.  Same thing for Mem.

 

Tri of course stays the 

Not sure i believe the GFS,brings the low around Birmingham

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