JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 For the central valley folks, the 12z EPS mean was 4 inches, the deterministic was 6 (at TYS). Out of 51 members only 3 had less than 2 inches. There were 4 big dogs over 7 inches. GEFS is strong for us as well with a mean of 4-5 inches. I believe MRX made a pretty good call. We stand a good chance of getting the grass completely covered, and the potential for a surprise is there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Fixed your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The gulf is open wide with this system, and there is a huge amount of energy. It's going to be interesting tomorrow into Saturday for sure. The family in Kentucky is certainly wound up over it. My phone is beeping every minute with a new text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Fixed your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 SL almost over Lake Pontchartrain... That seems way south to me. ULL still heading SE toward central LA. All seems south to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 There are currently 4 tornado warnings in Mississippi. Something that gets overlooked in these big storms. This one is dynamic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 SL almost over Lake Pontchartrain... That seems way south to me. ULL still heading SE toward central LA. All seems south to me... If that moved more to the east than northeast from there, it would appear to be south of the model predictions. That would bode well for most of Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If that moved more to the east than northeast from there, it would appear to be south of the model predictions. That would bode well for most of Tennessee. The SL looks south of both the Euro and GFS. GFS by about 100 miles. The ULL is West of target on GFS by about 150 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I tried to say before but got autocorrected that this isn't an elevation driven event. It's a north/south event. At least initially. Crossville is more prone to see rain or mixing at close to 2000 feet than some place 75 miles north at 1000 feet. It's all about where the 850 freezing line reaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 SL almost over Lake Pontchartrain... That seems way south to me. ULL still heading SE toward central LA. All seems south to me... Can you post the link to that radar? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 SL almost over Lake Pontchartrain... That seems way south to me. ULL still heading SE toward central LA. All seems south to me... Shawn. Where did you get that image. I have been wanting to follow the track of that low where the low is actually marked and I am not having to eyeball it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Shawn. Where did you get that image. I have been wanting to follow the track of that low where the low is actually marked and I am not having to eyeball it. The image is from WPC you still have to eyeball and place the the center by eyeball. The image I posted is last hours image as its updated hourly. The SL is much more broad now after the image updated about 20 minutes ago. I placed the low centers. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 I tried to say before but got autocorrected that this isn't an elevation driven event. It's a north/south event. At least initially. Crossville is more prone to see rain or mixing at close to 2000 feet than some place 75 miles north at 1000 feet. It's all about where the 850 freezing line reaches. In NE TN, both elevation and thicknesses will matter. Would not dare comment on the Plateau...not close to my specialty. Trust you on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That link the SL and ULL are still with the updated image from WPC both off target. For the SL to end up in Northern MS then slide East it will have to slide essentially almost due north from current position. I have a hard time seeing that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 In NE TN, both elevation and thicknesses will matter. Would not dare comment on the Plateau...not close to my specialty. Trust you on that one. I've found in warm nose storms that elevation isn't a big deal. It's all about being north of that 850 line set up. January 2010 my area got 10-15 inches when Crossville got warm nosed and had zr. Same thing last year. I was just far enough North to stay snow/sleet when higher spots than me, just 20 miles south of me were all freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 That link the SL and ULL are still with the updated image from WPC both off target. For the SL to end up in Northern MS then slide East it will have to slide essentially almost due north from current position. I have a hard time seeing that happen. The NAM has been doing just that with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 That link the SL and ULL are still with the updated image from WPC both off target. For the SL to end up in Northern MS then slide East it will have to slide essentially almost due north from current position. I have a hard time seeing that happen. Hmmm. Welp, that is a new wrinkle. Probably won't hurt 850s. John, tnwxnut, stove, crew...what are your thoughts? South? Looks like it there. What are the downstream implications. Sometimes an unorganized low can be tough to place. So, it may not be way off...but it looks way off w/ the graphic. We chuckle at the JMA, but if it is that far south...it is a plausible solution. But I am really reaching at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The NAM has been doing just that with it. Even on the NAM comparison the surface low is currently about 100 miles south of where it should be right now, although the new image is a broad area of LP the last image was tighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Here's the spread of low locations on the 12z EPS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's definitely south, but not by a huge margin. When will the new position be ingested by the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's definitely south, but not by a huge margin. When will the new position be ingested by the models? This is an excellent question, I'd really like to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Here's the spread of low locations on the 12z EPS: Looks like the UKIE and Euro correctly placed the low...but yes, does look a touch south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 This is an excellent question, I'd really like to know. I think at this point the RGEM, HRR, RAP(which I hate and it knows it because it puts a snow hole over my house even when it is snowing), WPC...Tropical Tidbits has a great page. I know you know that. For our new people, good site. Mesoscale models will be vital from here on out. Trends w/ those models matter. edit: forgot the NAM. I mention those, because they should get new data in real time, especially the hourly models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Another thing to watch, if that convection gets stronger it will cut off the moisture conveyor belt heading north(that should go in the SE forums list of things we say about winter storms). That would impede qpf amounts in the Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Another thing to watch, if that convection gets stronger it will cut off the moisture conveyor belt heading north(that should go in the SE forums list of things we say about winter storms). That would impede qpf amounts in the Valley. That, sun angle, and ground temps are classics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Believe it's right.It's just not wrapped up yet ,it's slowly getting stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 OHX update last hour: 000FXUS64 KOHX 220033AFDOHXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN633 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016.DISCUSSION...ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS ARE A BITCONCERNING. AT THE SFC...IT APPEARS THAT ANY SFC WAA AT THE SFC ISNO LONGER IN PLACE AT CKV AND NEARBY AREAS. CURRENTLY...TEMPSACROSS THAT AREA ARE NEAR 32 AND 33 DEGREES. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTSARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. LATEST HRRR AGGRESSIVELY BRINGS SOMEENHANCED MOISTURE NORTHWARD BY 06Z. BUT...THIS LOOKS A LITTLEOVERDONE BASED ON INITIALIZATION. STILL THOUGH...WILL NEED TO BUMPUP THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET A TOUCH.THE TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW IN THIS AREA LOOKS LIKE BETWEEN 6 AMAND 8 AM WITH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FALLING PRIOR TO THATTIME.FOR THE UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE FOR NOW WILL BE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARDTHE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AREA TOWARD WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS ASWELL. I WILL ALSO INCREASE ICE ACCUM A BIT.ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID STATE...NO CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT BUT WE ARE CONCERNED WITH THEPOTENTIAL THAT SNOW MIGHT COME IN A LITTLE EARLIER FOR NASHVILLETHAN THE CURRENT 11 AM TO 2 PM PREDICTION. WILL AWAIT THE NEW 00ZNAM TO MAKE THAT DECISION BUT THAT 11 AM TO 2 PM TIME WINDOW MAYNEED TO BE MOVED UP A FEW HOURS. ALSO...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AWATCHFUL EYE ON OUR NORTHWEST AS MORE IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAINAND SLEET COULD OCCUR PRIOR TO 6 AM. A DECISION TO EXPAND THE WSWSOUTHWARD PRIOR TO 12Z MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ANDPERHAPS WEST CENTRAL AREAS. May have implications on Nashville and Middle TN area snow totals, good implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 OHX update last hour: May have implications on Nashville and Middle TN area snow totals, good implications. That low is further south. WAA will not be as strong if that graphic is correct. Interesting development. Glad to see actual implications in the TN Valley wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 OHX update last hour: May have implications on Nashville and Middle TN area snow totals, good implications. They've been abused the last couple years by the public.Most of their disco is taking a safe way around things.TBH it's not been the fault of them either,warm noses are tough around here and the models always seem to fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 For us folks living down stream of Nashville, how strong that primary gets is important. If it gets to 998, even if it is a bit further south it is going to be pumping in some warm air. Shawn, how is the actual strength compared to the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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