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Jan 22-23 Winter Storm Event..."The Middle Tennessee Mauler"


Carvers Gap

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For the central valley folks, the 12z EPS mean was 4 inches, the deterministic was 6 (at TYS).  Out of 51 members only 3 had less than 2 inches.  There were 4 big dogs over 7 inches.  GEFS is strong for us as well with a mean of 4-5 inches.  I believe MRX made a pretty good call.  We stand a good chance of getting the grass completely covered, and the potential for a surprise is there!

 

keep_calm_and_reel_it_in_in_any_color_po

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SL almost over Lake Pontchartrain...  That seems way south to me.  ULL still heading SE toward central LA.  All seems south to me... 

 

If that moved more to the east than northeast from there, it would appear to be south of the model predictions.  That would bode well for most of Tennessee. 

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Shawn.  Where did you get that image.  I have been wanting to follow the track of that low where the low is actually marked and I am not having to eyeball it.

The image is from WPC you still have to eyeball and place the the center by eyeball.  The image I posted is last hours image as its updated hourly.  The SL is much more broad now after the image updated about 20 minutes ago.  I placed the low centers.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl#

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I tried to say before but got autocorrected that this isn't an elevation driven event. It's a north/south event. At least initially. Crossville is more prone to see rain or mixing at close to 2000 feet than some place 75 miles north at 1000 feet. It's all about where the 850 freezing line reaches.

 

In NE TN, both elevation and thicknesses will matter.  Would not dare comment on the Plateau...not close to my specialty.   Trust you on that one.

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In NE TN, both elevation and thicknesses will matter.  Would not dare comment on the Plateau...not close to my specialty.   Trust you on that one.

I've found in warm nose storms that elevation isn't a big deal. It's all about being north of that 850 line set up. January 2010 my area got 10-15 inches when Crossville got warm nosed and had zr. Same thing last year. I was just far enough North to stay snow/sleet when higher spots than me, just 20 miles south of me were all freezing rain.

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That link the SL and ULL are still with the updated image from WPC both off target.  For the SL to end up in Northern MS then slide East it will have to slide essentially almost due north from current position.  I have a hard time seeing that happen.  

 

Hmmm.  Welp, that is a new wrinkle.  Probably won't hurt 850s.  John, tnwxnut, stove, crew...what are your thoughts?  South?  Looks like it there.  What are the downstream implications.  Sometimes an unorganized low can be tough to place.  So, it may not be way off...but it looks way off w/ the graphic.  We chuckle at the JMA, but if it is that far south...it is a plausible solution.  But I am really reaching at this point. 

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This is an excellent question, I'd really like to know.

 

I think at this point the RGEM, HRR, RAP(which I hate and it knows it because it puts a snow hole over my house even when it is snowing), WPC...Tropical Tidbits has a great page.  I know you know that.  For our new people, good site.  Mesoscale models will be vital from here on out.  Trends w/ those models matter.  

 

edit:  forgot the NAM.  I mention those, because they should get new data in real time, especially the hourly models.

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Another thing to watch, if that convection gets stronger it will cut off the moisture conveyor belt heading north(that should go in the SE forums list of things we say about winter storms).  That would impede qpf amounts in the Valley.

 

That, sun angle, and ground temps are classics.

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OHX update last hour:

 

 

 

000
FXUS64 KOHX 220033
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
633 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS...
THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS ARE A BIT
CONCERNING. AT THE SFC...IT APPEARS THAT ANY SFC WAA AT THE SFC IS
NO LONGER IN PLACE AT CKV AND NEARBY AREAS. CURRENTLY...TEMPS
ACROSS THAT AREA ARE NEAR 32 AND 33 DEGREES. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. LATEST HRRR AGGRESSIVELY BRINGS SOME
ENHANCED MOISTURE NORTHWARD BY 06Z. BUT...THIS LOOKS A LITTLE
OVERDONE BASED ON INITIALIZATION. STILL THOUGH...WILL NEED TO BUMP
UP THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET A TOUCH.

THE TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW IN THIS AREA LOOKS LIKE BETWEEN 6 AM
AND 8 AM WITH THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FALLING PRIOR TO THAT
TIME.

FOR THE UPDATE...ONLY CHANGE FOR NOW WILL BE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD
THE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AREA TOWARD WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS AS
WELL. I WILL ALSO INCREASE ICE ACCUM A BIT.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID STATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT BUT WE ARE CONCERNED WITH THE
POTENTIAL THAT SNOW MIGHT COME IN A LITTLE EARLIER FOR NASHVILLE
THAN THE CURRENT 11 AM TO 2 PM PREDICTION. WILL AWAIT THE NEW 00Z
NAM TO MAKE THAT DECISION BUT THAT 11 AM TO 2 PM TIME WINDOW MAY
NEED TO BE MOVED UP A FEW HOURS
. ALSO...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A
WATCHFUL EYE ON OUR NORTHWEST AS MORE IN THE WAY OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET COULD OCCUR PRIOR TO 6 AM. A DECISION TO EXPAND THE WSW
SOUTHWARD PRIOR TO 12Z MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND
PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL AREAS.

May have implications on Nashville and Middle TN area snow totals, good implications.

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OHX update last hour:

 

May have implications on Nashville and Middle TN area snow totals, good implications.

They've been abused the last couple years by the public.Most of their disco is taking a safe way around things.TBH it's not been the fault of them either,warm noses are tough around here and the models always seem to fail

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