weathertree4u Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Knoxville gets pretty close to some nice totals on the latest RGEM. Has the snow hole over Nashville area...but looks like a glitch to me. Would disregard based on other runs not missing at all. you have an RGEM snowfall map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On a side note, a friend of mine from Bristol just sent me a picture of the checkout line at his grocery store. I'm glad I did my shopping this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18Z RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18Z RGEM: RGEM is so generous it even gives northern Florida a dusting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Does anyone have any possible analogs for this based on features and LP track? I don't know of any in my 27 years living in East TN. We've had many large miller A's over 27 years but none I can think of with a similar track and set up as this with this strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Does anyone have any possible analogs for this based on features and LP track? I don't know of any in my 27 years living in East TN. We've had many large miller A's over 27 years but none I can think of with a similar track and set up as this with this strength. 1996 was running high in the analog list a day or so ago. Still think it's a pretty good match Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 1996 was running high in the analog list a day or so ago. Still think it's a pretty good match I thought about that one and it may be a good analog after it becomes a coastal but I don't believe its close enough. For instance near blizzard conditions in Memphis possible, that didn't happen with 96, only about an inch in Memphis and less than 3" in Nash. I believe both cities will do better than that. Thats what makes this one hard. I loved 96 and 93 but neither are close enough analogs to me. This seems almost like an oddity on one hand and classic on the other hand in terms of text book storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18z GFS snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18z Hi-Res NAM snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18z RGEM snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18z Hi-Res NAM snow: One thing is for certain with this storm--as every model has shown it for awhile now. A big part of Kentucky is gonna get nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 One thing is for certain with this storm--as every model has shown it for awhile now. A big part of Kentucky is gonna get nailed. So will TRI,the ratios i'm sure you can add on to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 ! will take the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yikes, the RGEM also has a lot of ice for the northern valley, nearly .50"-1.00" worth. Could be bad, especially considering there is still snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yikes, the RGEM also has a lot of ice for the northern valley, nearly .50"-1.00" worth. Could be bad, especially considering there is still snow cover. This is a classic, classic TN Valley storm in that nobody (even the wx models) has a real handle on this. This is bust city for mets. The range is 3" - 12"+ in NE TN depending on what model you look at. Could be ZR, ZR+, Rain, SN+...Going to get wild! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 18z Hi-Res NAM snow: Usually mods we delete the map in the comments, but this time I need it. Not directed at you, Stove. This is why I don't like the Hi-Res. It is almost unrealistic since it based almost too much on topography. Gotta smooth those maps out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Well the Gulf is now opening up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I might go postal if the snow hole on the NAM pans out. It literally has more snow in every direction around Chattanooga. Even to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This is a classic, classic TN Valley storm in that nobody (even the wx models) has a real handle on this. This is bust city for mets. The range is 3" - 12"+ in NE TN depending on what model you look at. Could be ZR, ZR+, Rain, SN+...Going to get wild! LOL. I'm looking forward to the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Over all looks like the ULL is just south of the Red River in NE TX and heading SE toward LA. Close to all the major models thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I might go postal if the snow hole on the NAM pans out. It literally has more snow in every direction around Chattanooga. Even to the south. you and me both lol. a whole lot of models do not fill that in either lol. We have had pretty good luck for about 4-5 years now but that may come to an end tomorrow. Who knows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Over all looks like the ULL is just south of the Red River in NE TX and heading SE toward LA. Close to all the major models thus far. I had that exact question as I just saw a sat loop on WJHL. Look north or south of the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The models diverge in about 12 hours. Euro and company head mostly east. Others head more ne then east then transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I also don't like the nam maps at hi res. Thus isn't an elevation driven event. It's an 80s are good or not event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I had that exact question as I just saw a sat loop on WJHL. Look north or south of the Euro? To me a smidge... Maybe 50 miles south to my untrained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 you and me both lol. a whole lot of models do not fill that in either lol. We have had pretty good luck for about 4-5 years now but that may come to an end tomorrow. Who knows! Part of me wonders if maybe it's trying to show sleet? Not sure if that makes sense given the upper level temps should be crashing with the precip. Probably just a severe BL temp issue. We have overcome those before. Valentine's day 2014 was supposed to be a slushy inch. I got almost 10" out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18z GEFS snow mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Part of me wonders if maybe it's trying to show sleet? Not sure if that makes sense given the upper level temps should be crashing with the precip. Probably just a severe BL temp issue. We have overcome those before. Valentine's day 2014 was supposed to be a slushy inch. I got almost 10" out of it. I'm thinking it is the Plateau and mountains eating up all our moisture because by then the flow is pretty much NW. BL temps are a problem as well that could be solved by heavy rates... if we got them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 For the central valley folks, the 12z EPS mean was 4 inches, the deterministic was 6 (at TYS). Out of 51 members only 3 had less than 2 inches. There were 4 big dogs over 7 inches. GEFS is strong for us as well with a mean of 4-5 inches. I believe MRX made a pretty good call. We stand a good chance of getting the grass completely covered, and the potential for a surprise is there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 For the central valley folks, the 12z EPS mean was 4 inches, the deterministic was 6 (at TYS). Out of 51 members only 3 had less than 2 inches. There were 4 big dogs over 7 inches. GEFS is strong for us as well with a mean of 4-5 inches. I believe MRX made a pretty good call. We stand a good chance of getting the grass completely covered, and the potential for a surprise is there! I think so too on MRX forecast. I also agree a great chance here for many to get a surprise. I really feel like this storm has some components to it that make more than just a classic Major Miller A on Steroids, a storm to which we haven't seen the likes of in terms of its strength in at least a decade. Its going to be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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