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Jan 22-23 Winter Storm Event..."The Middle Tennessee Mauler"


Carvers Gap

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Does anyone have any possible analogs for this based on features and LP track? I don't know of any in my 27 years living in East TN. We've had many large miller A's over 27 years but none I can think of with a similar track and set up as this with this strength.

1996 was running high in the analog list a day or so ago. Still think it's a pretty good match

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1996 was running high in the analog list a day or so ago. Still think it's a pretty good match

I thought about that one and it may be a good analog after it becomes a coastal but I don't believe its close enough.  For instance near blizzard conditions in Memphis possible, that didn't happen with 96, only about an inch in Memphis and less than 3" in Nash.  I believe both cities will do better than that.  Thats what makes this one hard.  I loved 96 and 93 but neither are close enough analogs to me.  This seems almost like an oddity on one hand and classic on the other hand in terms of text book storms.

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Yikes, the RGEM also has a lot of ice for the northern valley, nearly .50"-1.00" worth. Could be bad, especially considering there is still snow cover.

 

This is a classic, classic TN Valley storm in that nobody (even the wx models) has a real handle on this.  This is bust city for mets. The range is 3" - 12"+ in NE TN depending on what model you look at.  Could be ZR, ZR+, Rain, SN+...Going to get wild!  LOL.

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I might go postal if the snow hole on the NAM pans out. It literally has more snow in every direction around Chattanooga. Even to the south.

you and me both lol. a whole lot of models do not fill that in either lol. We have had pretty good luck for about 4-5 years now but that may come to an end tomorrow. Who knows!

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you and me both lol. a whole lot of models do not fill that in either lol. We have had pretty good luck for about 4-5 years now but that may come to an end tomorrow. Who knows!

Part of me wonders if maybe it's trying to show sleet? Not sure if that makes sense given the upper level temps should be crashing with the precip. Probably just a severe BL temp issue. We have overcome those before. Valentine's day 2014 was supposed to be a slushy inch. I got almost 10" out of it.

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Part of me wonders if maybe it's trying to show sleet? Not sure if that makes sense given the upper level temps should be crashing with the precip. Probably just a severe BL temp issue. We have overcome those before. Valentine's day 2014 was supposed to be a slushy inch. I got almost 10" out of it.

I'm thinking it is the Plateau and mountains eating up all our moisture because by then the flow is pretty much NW. BL temps are a problem as well that could be solved by heavy rates... if we got them. 

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For the central valley folks, the 12z EPS mean was 4 inches, the deterministic was 6 (at TYS).  Out of 51 members only 3 had less than 2 inches.  There were 4 big dogs over 7 inches.  GEFS is strong for us as well with a mean of 4-5 inches.  I believe MRX made a pretty good call.  We stand a good chance of getting the grass completely covered, and the potential for a surprise is there!

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For the central valley folks, the 12z EPS mean was 4 inches, the deterministic was 6 (at TYS).  Out of 51 members only 3 had less than 2 inches.  There were 4 big dogs over 7 inches.  GEFS is strong for us as well with a mean of 4-5 inches.  I believe MRX made a pretty good call.  We stand a good chance of getting the grass completely covered, and the potential for a surprise is there!

I think so too on MRX forecast.  I also agree a great chance here for many to get a surprise.  I really feel like this storm has some components to it that make more than just a classic Major Miller A on Steroids, a storm to which we haven't seen the likes of in terms of its strength in at least a decade.  Its going to be fun to watch.

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