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Jan 22-23 Winter Storm Event..."The Middle Tennessee Mauler"


Carvers Gap

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At this point, I want to encourage everyone to look at the position of the low when looking at models and not the clown maps.  The 12z Euro primary is in a good spot.  Energy transfers earlier and to the south and east of 0z.  The main reason that much of the eastern valley gets little snow is the qpf is low.  Might be downsloping.  That is not a bad run at all IMO and is actually a major improvement for the operational.  Most major EC storms like to send something up west of the Apps. 

 

It was the strength of the low and position of the H that killed Tennessee on the Euro.

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1. The Euro run showed about an inch for Knoxville on Friday.

2. The Southeast forum talks little to nothing about East TN or Tennessee in general.

 

We used to be in the SE forum...now we post in this forum.  Very much a North Carolina forum as most of the mets for that region work in North Carolina which is cool w/ me.  We had our own forum created since the wx west of the Apps can be much different.  Lots of good posters there like Cold Rain, Burger, Wow, Hickory, WNC, etc.

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Not sure I agree that was a bad run.  I look more at storm tracks this far out.  The main axis of precip runs up the spine of the Apps.  You check the dewpoints yet?

 

Not looked at dew points. It was a similar track, slightly north of the GFS, but the strength of it seems to be the big killer for the Valley area. It's just not as wrapped up and not generating the backside effects that we are seeing on the GFS that causes especially the west half of the valley to do so well. 

 

The track being across the state means it has to really wind up and we have to depend on backside snows to get the job done.

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We used to be in the SE forum...now we post in this forum. Very much a North Carolina forum as most of the mets for that region work in North Carolina which is cool w/ me. We had our own forum created since the wx west of the Apps can be much different. Lots of good posters there like Cold Rain, Burger, Wow, Hickory, WNC, etc.

I'm not casting aspersions on that forum. I'm just saying that viewing that forum for weather info in Tennessee is kinda hard to do when they talk about NC, SC, and GA.

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Not looked at dew points. It was a similar track, slightly north of the GFS, but the strength of it seems to be the big killer for the Valley area. It's just not as wrapped up and not generating the backside effects that we are seeing on the GFS that causes especially the west half of the valley to do so well. 

 

The track being across the state means it has to really wind up and we have to depend on backside snows to get the job done.

 

This shows what your saying pretty well.  The storm in question is toward the end of the run.  Not a lot of backside snow this go-around.  Earlier today, looked quite a bit different--stronger with more back-side snow in East TN. 

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

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Not looked at dew points. It was a similar track, slightly north of the GFS, but the strength of it seems to be the big killer for the Valley area. It's just not as wrapped up and not generating the backside effects that we are seeing on the GFS that causes especially the west half of the valley to do so well. 

 

The track being across the state means it has to really wind up and we have to depend on backside snows to get the job done.

 

It is pretty wrapped-up off of Hatteras @ 114.  On WxBell maps, I can't read the pressure due to so many tight gradients.  As for backside effects, I really want to see that low continue to deepen like it did this run.  As for the western side of the Valley, this has always been a stretch.  They stand to do better w/ system #1.  I will get back to what tnweathernut mentioned earlier...just depends on when this phases.  But the stronger it is, the better chance someone in the Valley can score some snow.  I am definitely not thinking HECS amounts for us or even MECS.  Those numbers are grouped to our northeast.  I also share your concern about the energy going up west of the Apps.  Will be interesting to see what the EPS has. 

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It is pretty wrapped-up off of Hatteras @ 114.  On WxBell maps, I can't read the pressure due to so many tight gradients.  As for backside effects, I really want to see that low continue to deepen like it did this run.  As for the western side of the Valley, this has always been a stretch.  They stand to do better w/ system #1.  I will get back to what tnweathernut mentioned earlier...just depends on when this phases.  But the stronger it is, the better chance someone in the Valley can score some snow.  I am definitely not thinking HECS amounts for us or even MECS.  Those numbers are grouped to our northeast.  I also share your concern about the energy going up west of the Apps.  Will be interesting to see what the EPS has. 

 

The mountains and maybe as far west as Tri still get some snow on the Euro on the backside. I haven't looked at a clown or anything but I'd think 2-4 inches are possible from it in the far eastern areas.

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This shows what your saying pretty well.  The storm in question is toward the end of the run.  Not a lot of backside snow this go-around.  Earlier today, looked quite a bit different--stronger with more back-side snow in East TN. 

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

 

We are talking Euro.  The Canadian definitely shows warm air over the entire state.  Again, you all might want to check those dewpoints on the 12z Euro.  They matter.  Really need to see the EPS to see if the operational is correct.  But IMO, the 12z is quite a bit better in terms of energy transfer and primary low position. 

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The mountains and maybe as far west as Tri still get some snow on the Euro on the backside. I haven't looked at a clown or anything but I'd think 2-4 inches are possible from it in the far eastern areas.

 

The numbers are big in the mtns.  DT posted the EuroWx map in the MA forum...it was deleted.  He posted another.  Could also check FB to see if he placed it there.  The far NE mtns get absolutely hammered. 

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The numbers are big in the mtns.  DT posted the EuroWx map in the MA forum...it was deleted.  He posted another.  Could also check FB to see if he placed it there.  The far NE mtns get absolutely hammered. 

 

Didn't see the clown.

 

Looking at Wunderground maps, looks like Johnson County gets plastered. 3-6+ maybe down the spine of the mountains. 2-4 just slightly west of there. Probably 1-3 maybe west of about 2 counties from NC in NE Tn based on sparse qpf once the 540 crashes through and the changeover happens. 

 

Then maybe 1-4 in Northern Middle just looking at precip left over after the 540 passes there. 

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The 12z Canadian ensembles look nice for much of east Tennessee.  Still a long way to go with this one, but temperatures at 850 look to crash as the transfer occurs pretty far to the south (SC/GA coastal border) shortly after hour 96. 

The Canadian was similar in strength to the GFS on the lp sliding across the area. It allows more potent backside snows and does well for most of the state.

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Didn't see the clown.

 

Looking at Wunderground maps, looks like Johnson County gets plastered. 3-6+ maybe down the spine of the mountains. 2-4 just slightly west of there. Probably 1-3 maybe west of about 2 counties from NC in NE Tn based on sparse qpf once the 540 crashes through and the changeover happens. 

 

Then maybe 1-4 in Northern Middle just looking at precip left over after the 540 passes there. 

 

I look (right or wrong) at the shape of the storm this far out....It definitely has a comma head @ 114 draping back over the eastern 2/3 of the state.  Always sketchy depending on comma head snow.  Sometimes it does not get over the Apps.  That is why I am really pulling for this thing to really deepen.  Many great EC storms have mixing issues in the Valley.  Several of the ensembles don't have energy heading up west of the Apps.  Most ops do.  Waiting on the EPS at the moment.

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Most modeling insistent on a low pressure making it into Tennessee before migrating east and eventually transferring to the low in SC.  This would wreck thermals for a good chunk of Tennessee IMO.  

 

Unless it's wound up for back side snows, we will have to hope that we do get in on a comma head as it bombs off the coast.

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What do you mean when you say "wrecking thermals"? What happens?

 

When you're on the east side of a LP you get a lot of warm air advection. Even lows in the gulf give temp issues sometimes, One tracking over you or even barely south of you will send too much warm air northward. That's why we'll have to get through rain to hopefully get to snow.

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The EPS mean was a bit better than the OP, but that's pretty close to what I got from the OP looking at the panels on wunderground. 

 

Hopefully the gfs is right or the guys out west do well with wave one. 

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The mean has improved each of the last five runs.  The EPS takes the primary up through w TN.  Then, a small reflection of that low finds its way into SE TN.  So, you ask...how does it improve w/ snow totals in the eastern Valley compared to 0z EPS mean?  It transfers energy earlier and more to the SE.  The 0z EPS secondary low formed just to the sw of Hatteras.  The 12z EPS secondary low forms over SC.  Thus, it allows for more snow to fall over the middle and northern sections of the eastern Valley.  So, the earlier transfer of energy offsets the low going into western TN - for the eastern Valley.   As for the western Valley, this has never really been its storm.  Minus a few runs here and there this storm has really been and eastern Valley "chance."  Pretty crazy watching a system transfer energy to South Carolina.  Now...keeping it level...once the energy hits the coast(soon) we will have a much better picture of what happens.  Still think there are some things that will change...good or bad until that "better" data is ingested.   

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The mean has improved each of the last five runs.  The EPS takes the primary up through w TN.  Then, a small reflection of that low finds its way into SE TN.  So, you ask...how does it improve w/ snow totals in the eastern Valley compared to 0z EPS mean?  It transfers energy earlier and more to the SE.  The 0z EPS secondary low formed just to the sw of Hatteras.  The 12z EPS secondary low forms over SC.  Thus, it allows for more snow to fall over the middle and northern sections of the eastern Valley.  So, the earlier transfer of energy offsets the low going into western TN - for the eastern Valley.   As for the western Valley, this has never really been its storm.  Minus a few runs here and there this storm has really been and eastern Valley "chance."  Pretty crazy watching a system transfer energy to South Carolina.  Now...keeping it level...once the energy hits the coast(soon) we will have a much better picture of what happens.  Still think there are some things that will change...good or bad until that "better" data is ingested.   

 

I'd say maybe it's not a western valley storm on the Euro. On the GFS 4-8 inches falls in the Western Valley from North of Memphis to Northern Middle and Southern Ky from it and the GFS has been consistent in doing that for a day or two now.

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I'd say maybe it's not a western valley storm on the Euro. On the GFS 4-8 inches falls in the Western Valley from North of Memphis to Northern Middle and Southern Ky from it and the GFS has been consistent in doing that for a day or two now.

 

I do not trust the GFS for specifics in the medium and long range.   Now, the GEFS has not been too bad.  The GFS has been erratic. The Euro, JMA, Canadian to some extent, UKMET...all have been pretty solid in their placement of the low.  The GFS operational has been placing that low all over the place on the EC.  That is why I say this has not really been a western TN solution.  I would love for them to get a big storm..but just never saw this as one that they get.  Now, there is a way it could happen as you note.  The slp could slide across the mid-south w/ almost no primary doing into TN.  But that is not shown on most models. 

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WxSouth just posted this on FB.  Whether it verifies, we will have to wait and see.  For those of you new to the board, this met used to post a lot on the SE forum and here as well.  Now, he has a private business.  But is a very good forecaster.  Looks like a good, general look.  But again, I warn...let's wait for the system to actual get to NA.  The data will be better and the models will surely be more accurate.  That could help or hurt.  Right now, the trend has been to send a primary west of Nashville w/ a secondary forming in SC. 

 

post-769-0-29720500-1453151369_thumb.jpg

 

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Here are Robert's (Wxsouth) comments to go along with the image Carver's just posted. He posted these publicly on Facebook so I assume it's okay to post them here. If not, please remove and accept my apology!

The trends aren't good. All models are rock steady on the powerful storm that is forecast to develop in the MidSouth late Thursday, and then interact with plenty of cold air in place. The European model continues to get slightly colder each run for areas of VA, NC , SC at the surface. The overall themes of the computer modeling is in amazing agreement on this major storm's evolution but have only slight variances in the track. The details at the surface are not carved in stone yet, but this has a look of some of the Bigger Winter storms, for the areas affected.

Some of the numbers of snow totals are incredible off the models, many showing a widespread 2 foot snowstorm in a large chunk of Virginia, West Virginia,and common Foot amounts in part of North Carolina, Kentucky, and into the Northeast....snow, to ice to snow for southern VA, piedmont of NC, and a vicious IceStorm setup in some areas of overlapping regions of particularly NC, VA where snow isn't dominant. All models peg Virginia, West Virginia and Maryland as Ground Zero thanks to the slow moving storm crawling up the Coast by Saturday. What a mess. Its too early to know exact snow and ice amounts just yet. And it's possible this storm doesn't come together as forecast, but there's no denying the last few days of the trends on this one. We'll follow it through the week. For now, keep this info in your mind, and if plans are needed later on maybe think about your usual Winter Storm preparations.

I cover this major event, as well as the Wednesday minor event in the Tennessee Valley at my site in detail.

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WxSouth just posted this on FB.  Whether it verifies, we will have to wait and see.  For those of you new to the board, this met used to post a lot on the SE forum and here as well.  Now, he has a private business.  But is a very good forecaster.  Looks like a good, general look.  But again, I warn...let's wait for the system to actual get to NA.  The data will be better and the models will surely be more accurate.  That could help or hurt.  Right now, the trend has been to send a primary west of Nashville w/ a secondary forming in SC. 

 

 

Like to see that happen, he basically posted the EPS means that DT posted though.

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I do not trust the GFS for specifics in the medium and long range.   Now, the GEFS has not been too bad.  The GFS has been erratic. The Euro, JMA, Canadian to some extent, UKMET...all have been pretty solid in their placement of the low.  The GFS operational has been placing that low all over the place on the EC.  That is why I say this has not really been a western TN solution.  I would love for them to get a big storm..but just never saw this as one that they get.  Now, there is a way it could happen as you note.  The slp could slide across the mid-south w/ almost no primary doing into TN.  But that is not shown on most models. 

I'm not sold on any of them really, but the GFS has been much better than the Euro over the last few events. It blew the Euro out of the water in this range for the last storm that passed South of here. The GFS missed the track by about 100-150 miles at this range, the Euro missed it by 600 miles.

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