ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If we do get upgraded, it will be after warning criteria snows have fallen. MRX once famously had its entire CWA except for Hamilton county in a warning and still didn't upgrade us until KCHA had 4 inches already on the ground. I think that was January 2009. I remember that!!! I'm in a tricky spot. I live literally able to walk into WSW and walk into the Southern valley advisory. I live on the Roane/Meigs line. I usually bank on whatever is being forecast for central valley because I usually don't verify on southern valley forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Everyone likes snow maps, right? Just another variation of a "similar" look. Will be interesting to see how this one plays out. Small changes can make BIG differences over a 25-75 mile distance. Good luck to you guys west of here! WRF ARW 48 hour snowfall map 01212016.png Thanks for posting that.You can see how soundings can get flawed.BNA is on more towards the SW Davidson Co.Big difference towards the NW of Davidson even towards the NE Edit:BNA is on the SE not SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Everyone likes snow maps, right? Just another variation of a "similar" look. Will be interesting to see how this one plays out. Small changes can make BIG differences over a 25-75 mile distance. Good luck to you guys west of here! That NAILS the typical downsloping we see across the upper eastern valley. This may be "one of those storms" from which JC sees more snow than Erwin and Elizabethton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 12z JMA basically holds serve. Tough to know anything else at 24 hr increments. It is a global model on the southern end of guidance. You can look at the 72 hr precip shield. Primary track similar to Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Everyone likes snow maps, right? Just another variation of a "similar" look. Will be interesting to see how this one plays out. Small changes can make BIG differences over a 25-75 mile distance. Good luck to you guys west of here! WRF ARW 48 hour snowfall map 01212016.png 17" of snow in Southern Arkansas ? If only that would move east into Birmingham and Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 12z JMA basically holds serve. Tough to know anything else at 24 hr increments. It is a global model on the southern end of guidance. You can look at the 72 hr precip shield. Primary track similar to Euro. finaljma.JPG The 12z isn't out on there yet, but on metrocentre you can get the JMA out to 48 in 3 hour panels, then to 84 in 6 hour panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 12z JMA basically holds serve. Tough to know anything else at 24 hr increments. It is a global model on the southern end of guidance. You can look at the 72 hr precip shield. Primary track similar to Euro. finaljma.JPG Im right in the area of NW MS where se ark intersects, looking at that map is that a total precip chart or is part of that the totals from rain polus snow. I ask because models have indicated that the storm starts to really crank here along the river possibly even thundersnow. Memphis mentioned monitoring for possible blizzard conditions although that area of NW MS is a bit north of me. SOunds like this storm could surprise some folks in this area before moving east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 12z isn't out on there yet, but on metrocentre you can get the JMA out to 48 in 3 hour panels, then to 84 in 6 hour panels. http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_0012_foreign_models.htm Temp profile is interesting. See what you think. Again, we are almost inside of its effectiveness as we are w/ the other globals. Interestingly, the Euro global was almost as precise as the mesoscale models yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Im right in the area of NW MS where se ark intersects, looking at that map is that a total precip chart or is part of that the totals from rain polus snow. I ask because models have indicated that the storm starts to really crank here along the river possibly even thundersnow. Memphis mentioned monitoring for possible blizzard conditions although that area of NW MS is a bit north of me. SOunds like this storm could surprise some folks in this area before moving east. You needing the Euro? Grabbing a bite right now. Will give it a look. Jax and the others might be able to get to it before me. Have at it, guys. Would be great for northern MS get some nice amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Carver, do you agree with MRX's decision to go ahead and upgrade the Central Valley to a WSW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Im right in the area of NW MS where se ark intersects, looking at that map is that a total precip chart or is part of that the totals from rain polus snow. I ask because models have indicated that the storm starts to really crank here along the river possibly even thundersnow. Memphis mentioned monitoring for possible blizzard conditions although that area of NW MS is a bit north of me. SOunds like this storm could surprise some folks in this area before moving east. It's just the total precipitation amounts. The JMA is known for being a little too generous with precip amounts. Hope this helps, it's good to see a post from down your way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's just the total precipitation amounts. The JMA is known for being a little too generous with precip amounts. Hope this helps, it's good to see a post from down your way! Thanks, heres hoping we all get something. One thing of note don't think we will make it to the high. Warm front is not going to make it this far north which means less cooling that has to take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Carver, do you agree with MRX's decision to go ahead and upgrade the Central Valley to a WSW? I can't answer for Carver's opinion but I think their decision primarily is based on 12Z NAM. Now that we are in short term model time that last run of the NAM paints what they are calling for in the central valley all the way down the to the southern plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The panic has already set in here in North Alabama. We have started getting emails about snow removal for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_0012_foreign_models.htm Temp profile is interesting. See what you think. Again, we are almost inside of its effectiveness as we are w/ the other globals. Interestingly, the Euro global was almost as precise as the mesoscale models yesterday. It's very borderline and there are going to be areas getting blitzed with heavy snow that suddenly transition to heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's just the total precipitation amounts. The JMA is known for being a little too generous with precip amounts. Hope this helps, it's good to see a post from down your way! That's what I was a thinking. I've never really trusted the JMA before that much because of its extreme QPF outputs but normally it does a good job with low pressure tracks and stuff. It just paints too broad of a brush with QPF. I'm not sure what the resolution is on the JMA but is isn't too good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Im right in the area of NW MS where se ark intersects, looking at that map is that a total precip chart or is part of that the totals from rain polus snow. I ask because models have indicated that the storm starts to really crank here along the river possibly even thundersnow. Memphis mentioned monitoring for possible blizzard conditions although that area of NW MS is a bit north of me. SOunds like this storm could surprise some folks in this area before moving east. Ah, yeah...misunderstood your question. tnwxnut answered it. Sometimes we just throw a model out there that might be a bit different. Yeah, that is liquid qpf. I was using the qpf to show roughly where the system was going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Question: Will the existing snow pack from yesterday help with temps tomorrow, in terms of snow vs rain or mix, for folks in the upper valley. Do any of the models allow for thar when predicting temp profile. As always, great discussion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 That's what I was a thinking. I've never really trusted the JMA before that much because of its extreme QPF outputs but normally it does a good job with low pressure tracks and stuff. It just paints too broad of a brush with QPF. I'm not sure what the resolution is on the JMA but is isn't too good. Yeah...I rarely look at it for specifics, just the general idea of where the slp tracks. It has a somewhat spooky ability w/ big East coast storms. But not near the Euro in terms of accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Maybe would be interesting after the storm to see how the models check out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Question: Will the existing snow pack from yesterday help with temps tomorrow, in terms of snow vs rain or mix, for folks in the upper valley. Do any of the models allow for thar when predicting temp profile. As always, great discussion! It won't hurt IMO. Will make it easier for heights to crash as the cold air can move more quickly over the snow. Might also contribute to more ZR due to keeping 2m temps down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yeah...I rarely look at it for specifics, just the general idea of where the slp tracks. It has a somewhat spooky ability w/ big East coast storms. But not near the Euro in terms of accuracy. Yeah I'm sorry if I come across rude I wasn't was really putting your thoughts or the model down. It has been very consistent with a more Miller A track as well as the Ukie and Euro. Normally that a very good trio to have on your side. The GFS and NAM always seem to be doing funky things with these big storms and those global models seem to be more consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Question: Will the existing snow pack from yesterday help with temps tomorrow, in terms of snow vs rain or mix, for folks in the upper valley. Do any of the models allow for thar when predicting temp profile. As always, great discussion! They help some at the lower levels just in the fact that it can't warm as much with snow on the ground. Also obviously helps any snow that falls, stick. The upper levels are a different story and where anyone has issues it will be with upper level temps. The position and strength of the low will effect most of us with a warm nose. We have to count on it taking a favorable track for back side snows. That's what hammers western areas. With luck it will do the same here. Need the low to be south and southeast of you at some point before transferring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yeah I'm sorry if I come across rude I wasn't was really putting your thoughts or the model down. It has been very consistent with a more Miller A track as well as the Ukie and Euro. Normally that a very good trio to have on your side. The GFS and NAM always seem to be doing funky things with these big storms and those global models seem to be more consistent. Didn't take it that way. I think when dealing Science people should ask questions. A good question is worth a good answer any day of the week. Definitely low resolution, but it has some skill when it comes to EC storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Carver, do you agree with MRX's decision to go ahead and upgrade the Central Valley to a WSW? Bump for Carver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hey guys I've been watching the models and especially the euro and it looks pretty good for me over here in White House tennesse. Although I've gotten much better since last year at reading models I'm still no where near some other posters on here. So my question is how do think White House and far north tennesse does for snow totals? I see some sharp cut offs on the snow totals and I'm kind of on the edge of those. Looking at the recent euro I look to be around 7 or 8 inches but was wondering what some of you with more weather knowledge thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hey guys I've been watching the models and especially the euro and it looks pretty good for me over here in White House tennesse. Although I've gotten much better since last year at reading models I'm still no where near some other posters on here. So my question is how do think White House and far north tennesse does for snow totals? I see some sharp cut offs on the snow totals and I'm kind of on the edge of those. Looking at the recent euro I look to be around 7 or 8 inches but was wondering what some of you with more weather knowledge thought. You'll be ok,the cut of is some where below Maury Co thats what the models are hinting at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hey guys I've been watching the models and especially the euro and it looks pretty good for me over here in White House tennesse. Although I've gotten much better since last year at reading models I'm still no where near some other posters on here. So my question is how do think White House and far north tennesse does for snow totals? I see some sharp cut offs on the snow totals and I'm kind of on the edge of those. Looking at the recent euro I look to be around 7 or 8 inches but was wondering what some of you with more weather knowledge thought. Thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The HRRR look really warm to me in the valley starts everyone out as rain and pushes the freezing line out of SWVA. Edit: Starts everyone out as rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The HRRR look really warm to me in the valley starts everyone out as snow and pushes the freezing line out of SWVA. If snow can start falling I've always found it's tougher to switch to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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