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Jan 22-23 Winter Storm Event..."The Middle Tennessee Mauler"


Carvers Gap

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Jumping from Gate City? Man, you are golden unless you find a dryslot. Tomorrow morning you should find VERY heavy snow falling with the initial band. It looks impressive on almost all modeling for you.

I was generally talking about northern valley as a whole. Even though our totals have been cut almost in half last night. I think the NAM run looks realistic. I think the GFS is lost and has the low and warm nose too far north. I would go with a blend of the NAM and Euro at the point. I fell asleep last night and misses all of the runs. It just sounded like Carvers was going to jump lol I was just trying to walk him back. The dry slot does worry me a little. If the front end thump doesn't work then the dry slot will kill us.

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Possibly,its good the winds aren't coming from the S today

Yes, that is usually what saves us but the low should be drawing winds in over the area from the northeast; honestly, high temps have been bungled every day this week, I honestly dont know how they think we will get to 40, I could be mistaken but if we dont it just looks to me like it will be a faster change over. I know where I am we still have about a half inch to an inch of sleet and snow, with no sun, that is not going anywhere

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I was generally talking about northern valley as a whole. Even though our totals have been cut almost in half last night. I think the NAM run looks realistic. I think the GFS is lost and has the low and warm nose too far north. I would go with a blend of the NAM and Euro at the point. I fell asleep last night and misses all of the runs. It just sounded like Carvers was going to jump lol I was just trying to walk him back. The dry slot does worry me a little. If the front end thump doesn't work then the dry slot will kill us.

Yeah, he was ready to jump thinking all the short range models had gotten new information, but he stepped back from the ledge and noticed there was some bad data or initialization issues with the NAM and GFS.

 

As for the northern and eastern valleys, this run ONLY gives decent snows with the ULL that maxes precip as it comes east through northern GA/southeast TN and points east.  I believe it will be in that general vicinity and should be as strong as modeled (maybe even stronger).  If that feature isn't there, what happens is exactly what you are worried about -  front end is a thump of rain, followed by a dryslot and much of the northern and eastern valleys are watching everyone around them (west, north, east) get pounded with snow.  I hope that doesn't happen.

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Ouch...Thxs for all the updates folks..Whatever happens been fun reading all comments and finally tracking a system..Hope all in Tenn receive ungodly amounts. :sled:

Weatherbell maps look different than that one. It has a big snow hole in SEKY that doesn't make any sense at all. I think your map looked more realistic.

cbdf9fcf1bb6a96bbe74106201056047.jpg

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I was generally talking about northern valley as a whole. Even though our totals have been cut almost in half last night. I think the NAM run looks realistic. I think the GFS is lost and has the low and warm nose too far north. I would go with a blend of the NAM and Euro at the point. I fell asleep last night and misses all of the runs. It just sounded like Carvers was going to jump lol I was just trying to walk him back. The dry slot does worry me a little. If the front end thump doesn't work then the dry slot will kill us.

 

Not jumped..yet.  Looks like the models for the 0z NAM and GFS initialized incorrectly.  Now, speaking for the eastern Valley only...

1.  I am less concerned about a warm nose and much more concerned about a dry slot and downsloping.  In NE TN, the snow totals are not actually cut by the warm nose.  They are cut by the dry slot and lack of qpf due to downsloping.  On the 0z EPS, the control had like 9-10" w/ a little more than one inch of liquid equivalent water.  That is very little mixing.  Was like 9:1.  I will watch the temps today, but I don't see a warm nose making it as far north as Gate City.  Maybe it gets into Hawkins Co.  WxSouth has hammered home the point that the models are not "seeing" the cold west of the Apps.  So, no...not of the train yet.  What we really need to watch is the amount of qpf in the eastern Valley.  That is what is missing.

2.  I think some of these sharper resolution models are almost too exact.  Maybe need some smoothing.  The NAM did not do so well during yesterday's storm due to that.  It is almost too elevation dependent, almost too exaggerated.  There is a reason that wpc took a blend of the UKIE and Euro last night.  When I saw that and the fact that the models(0z NAM and 0z GFS) initialized incorrectly...I walked my statement back.  But trends on models are important today.  QPF, thermal profiles, how strong the primary is...and where does that primary go.  The UKIE is almost a straight Miller A.  The Euro takes the primary along the southern TN border, almost bumps into the southern spine of the Apps, and then transfers to the SE.  I would not be surprised based on my own thoughts and some others that I have read...to see the primary go another 50-100 miles south.  That means very little to the MA and NC, but does across the entire Valley.  At this point I have no idea if the GFS and the NAM are correct...but I can't trust them over the Valley at this point.  So, I am cautiously rolling w/ the wpc blend from last night that John posted of the UKIE and Euro blend.  Hate using LR models for short range situations, but the American model suite has been awful w/ this in this region.  All over the place w/ low positions and now initialization errors for 0z. 

3.   Trend...the snow totals have backed way down.  Have to be real and accept that.  Some places have been cut by 2/3.  But not so much cutting of totals on the Euro.

4.  The parallel Euro is very close to the Euro and has had excellent verification scores this winter.  It held serve last night along w/ the Euro which has barely budge.

5.  12z should be an interesting run because the American suite is out on an island in many ways in the TN Valley, but not in the MA or the Carolinas.

 

And finally, I am definitely less enthused about totals in the eastern Valley.  Not gonna wishcast this.  Even on many models the totals in the western Valley have been cut...but the Euro has held firm, and again, I cautiously roll w/ it.  But the GFS scenario of nothing over the Valley is a real scenario that cannot be discounted.  Primary forms further west and messes up the thermal profile.  The Euro forms a bit further east.  I can't say I know where that primary forms..but the Euro has been steady and it gets the nod.  Now, if we get the UKIE...we are all in business.  Honestly, having the JMA, Euro, UKIE and GEM in one camp is good.  We need short range model guidance to actually support thoseLR models though.  And that may be happening as we speak.  Still... a fun storm to watch.  Fluid situation...should be a great 12z discussion.

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The NAM has some kind of strange enhancement occurring over the southern valley and especially over the southern plateau. Not sure what's causing it, but it definitely ups the snow potential down here. Serious down sloping in the northern valley though. Also has a crazy tight gradient right across Davidson county. There are going to be some broken hearts somewhere with this system.

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The NAM has some kind of strange enhancement occurring over the southern valley and especially over the southern plateau. Not sure what's causing it, but it definitely ups the snow potential down here. Serious down sloping in the northern valley though. Also has a crazy tight gradient right across Davidson county. There are going to be some broken hearts somewhere with this system.

Dwag, that's the upper level energy that comes scraping across your area.

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Dwag, that's the upper level energy that comes scraping across your area.

12Z GFS is also picking up on that, but not as robust in snow amounts for that band of energy as the NAM.  It has that same energy and/or defomation band forming and setting up essentially down the eastern edge of the plateau and western east TN valley counties (Hamilton included).  The 12Z GFS also picks up the same hole possibly down sloping effect or dry slot centered around Cocke County.  I'm betting by looking at the features its actually a combination of both based on where the NAM and GFS are depicting feature placements as well as down sloping from the weakening low essentially working in tandem on that area centered around Cocke County.  

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So, let's compare the RGEM 6z to 12z.  Also, anyone have a 12z GFS clown not from WxBell?  Post the 12z GEFS later if possible. 

 

What are the differences?

 

Generally, I see more snow on the southern edge from the Plateau and points east.  The track and intensity of the upper level energy will be key in determining who sees the enhanced snow on the backside.  I have seen ULL off by 50-100 miles within 36 hours many times before.  It's definitely NOT like shooting fish in a barrel.  

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Pivotal wx uses the Kuchera method for snow ratios which takes adjusts for various temp profiles.  Not as easy to find a good definition of this method on Google as one might think!

 

Here is the 12z NAM using the Kuchera method.  Have to credit Cheezenado from the SE forum for using this there.  Also, listed below is the PivotalWx link. 

 

post-769-0-09164300-1453395671_thumb.jpg

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/

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The models will never have the exact snow totals in the same place twice. You just have to smooth them out and hope for the best. Someone in East Tennessee will get the dry slot as MRX mentioned. Just hope it's during the rain instead of the snow as they mentioned. Also downsloping is a real worry in NE Tn. I seem to recall it happened last year or year before last during a snow event. It's just a reality there during lows passing to the south. That region has a good change to get plenty of front end before it happens and get plenty of back side with the low on the coast. No one east of West Tn and south of London Ky is fully in the game yet, nor is anyone out of it yet.

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