John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 06 NAM has a very weird track that I can't see happening but slightly increased snow totals from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RGEM is about 50 miles south of it's 00z track as of 06 though hour 18/24. We'll see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Through 30 it's stronger and further southwest. Frozen precip line is the entire Kentucky/Va border area one county deep into Tennessee and most all of West Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Through 30 it's stronger and further southwest. Frozen precip line is the entire Kentucky/Va border area one county deep into Tennessee and most all of West Tennessee. This is a very fluid situation, one cannot recall in recent memory; I think the last time that Nashville got over 8" was in the late 1980's I could be wrong though, the NWS doesnt have the data as easily accessible as it use to be on the website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RGEM was a bit better than 00z. Filled in a few areas that it blanked at 00z and crept the snow axis south again. Also it's still snowing at this point from about Jackson to Clarksville and eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This is a very fluid situation, one cannot recall in recent memory; I think the last time that Nashville got over 8" was in the late 1980's I could be wrong though, the NWS doesnt have the data as easily accessible as it use to be on the website. It was March of 1996. Last time over 7 was 2003 I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It was March of 1996. Last time over 7 was 2003 I believe. That could be the case; looks like almost all modeling is pointing to at least that much in TN, more in West TN, pretty much from I-40 north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 MRX morning disco. One of their best write ups ever, normally they are pretty tight lipped. .LONG TERM...(TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY)...LET`S CUT TO THECHASE...THE BIGGEST QUESTIONS WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGHON FRIDAY WILL BE:1) HOW MUCH SNOW IS PRODUCED IN THE MOUNTAINS/SOUTHWESTVIRGINIA/CUMBERLAND PLATEAU?2) HOW QUICKLY WILL RAIN IN THE VALLEY TRANSITION TO A WINTRYMIX/SNOW (AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL)?3) WILL WE BE DRY SLOTTED BY THE WRAP AROUND DRY AIR AS THIS SYSTEMMOVES THROUGH. IF WE ARE DRY SLOTTED WHEN WILL IT OCCUR?4) HOW STRONG WILL THE WINDS BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WINDS SHIFT OUTOF THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A MOUNTAIN WAVEEVENT?WITH ALL THOSE QUESTIONS UP IN THE AIR, COMBINED WITH MODELDISCREPANCIES AND RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THEEVENT...IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS PRETTYLOW AT THIS TIME.1) COUNTIES ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU/SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA/SOUTHERNAPPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE HIT THE HARDEST BY SNOW.TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS WILL BE MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO THEVALLEY AND AS THE SYSTEM FIRST STARTS TO IMPACT OUR AREA,PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS SNOW, OR VERY QUICKLY TRANSITIONTO SNOW. SNOW WILL LIKELY START AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVESSOUTH OF TENNESSEE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTEDEAST OF THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE SOME OF THE HIGHEST SNOWFALLTOTALS IN THESE PLACES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT THURSDAY ANDINTO FRIDAY MORNING. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, IT`S POSSIBLE THATSOME OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTTENNESSEE COULD SEE DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH THEREARE SOME OTHER FACTORS THAT COULD INHIBIT THIS, WHICH I WILL DISCUSSIN A BIT.2) LOOKING DOWN IN THE VALLEY, THIS EVENT WILL START OFF AS RAIN ANDTHEN TRANSITION TO SNOW SOMETIME FRIDAY EVENING.THIS TRANSITION IS VERY IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT COMES SOONER, SNOWAMOUNTS COULD BE MUCH HIGHER, AND IF WE STAY WARMER LONGER, THENSNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE DIMINISHED. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACTS WITH THISTRANSITION, EVERYWHERE SHOULD HAVE SWITCHED OVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHTFRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.3) AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, OUR AREA IS IN A VERY GOOD LOCATIONTO BE DRY SLOTTED AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT. DEPENDING ONWHEN/IF THIS OCCURS IT COULD HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON SNOWFALL TOTALS.IF IT COMES IN SOONER DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY IT WILL HALT MOSTLYTHE RAIN, BUT IF IT COMES IN LATER IN THE EVENING, IT WILL DAMPERTHE SNOWFALL TOTALS (ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEY) RIGHT NOW THE MODELSARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFOREWHERE THE DRY SLOTTING WILL OCCUR. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH ITWHILE THE ECMWF/GFS ARE LESS SO, ALTHOUGH THEY ALL SHOW IT TO SOMEDEGREE NEAR OUR AREA. I THINK THAT WE WILL STILL SEE PRECIPITATIONWHEN THE DRY SLOTTING OCCURS, HOWEVER, I BELIEVE THAT QPF AMOUNTSWILL BE REDUCED. I HAVE SHOWN THIS IN THE FORECAST BY CONTINUING THEHIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT DECREASING QPF AMOUNTS FRIDAYAFTERNOON.4) LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY STRONG ESPECIALLYON THE EAST SIDE. LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LINEUP FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAVORABLE SET UP TO SEEMOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE ITUNDER SIMILAR LOW LEVEL JET ORIENTATION. MODEL DISCREPANCIES AREPRESENT HERE AS WELL. NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET(LIKELY LEADING TO THE STRONGER DRY SLOT MENTIONED EARLIER) WHILETHE GFS/ECMWF HAVE LOWER JET MAX SPEEDS.WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID, FORECASTING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THISSYSTEM IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME. I COULD SEE THERE BEING A SHARPSNOWFALL GRADIENT SOMEWHERE IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHWESTVIRGINIA. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE DRY SLOT AND THETEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA, SOME PLACES COULD RECEIVE QUITE A BIT OFSNOW WHILE ONLY A FEW COUNTIES AWAY MUCH LESS SNOW FALL.AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM IS FORECASTEDTO MOVE THROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OFRAIN POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING INTO SNOW DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 MRX upgraded the entire watch area to a winter storm warning. I feel for them. This has high bust potential over a very small area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 06z also bounces back much better than 00z GFS for snow. Areas of the central valley it had getting an inch now are looking at 3-5. It does dry slot the hell out of NE Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 06z also bounces back much better than 00z GFS for snow. Areas of the central valley it had getting an inch now are looking at 3-5. It does dry slot the hell out of NE Tennessee. Hopefully that run is incorrect, hardly anything for the middle TN area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Snowing to beat hell in West Tn, and right across the Northern border areas into Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hopefully that run is incorrect, hardly anything for the middle TN area It's a better run than 00z was just on the fact that the low is about 80 miles south of 00z and it's colder. The NAM/RGEM/GFS all trended a bit south and they are the northern outliers right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's a better run than 00z was just on the fact that the low is about 80 miles south of 00z and it's colder. The NAM/RGEM/GFS all trended a bit south and they are the northern outliers right now. Great, keep the maps coming lol@! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 OHX upgrades to a warning. Says 3-6 with locally higher amounts in their warning areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Well personally I want to get slammed with a major storm of course, but in all reality I'm pretty stoked to have a little better than 2 inches on the ground this morning and be model stalking the next storm with accumulations beginning in about 36 hours. We don't get that every year and this is the second consecutive year of having snow on the ground and tracking the next one in that close a time frame. Love it, even love the model drama of extremes from nothing essentially to crippling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nice work with the over night updates John. These are nice developments to wake up to! And yes, the MRX write up was top shelf stuff. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I would love to see some skew-T's for my area with this from the models. anyone know a page a can get this information from? 850's crash after the transfer with a nice deformation band near by or over Chattanooga with 850's below freezing but all show little to basically no snowfall. We must have raging temps below 5,000ft. I know the valley has a hard time cooling down in situations like this but I would think a nasty deformation band like that would pull down some cold air for a transition and accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 06z also bounces back much better than 00z GFS for snow. Areas of the central valley it had getting an inch now are looking at 3-5. It does dry slot the hell out of NE Tennessee. Is that ONLY 1 inch showing in far southwest VA?? Dry slot--downsloping?? That run actually shows Knoxville and the central valley doing better than northeast TN. A total reversal of the official forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I would love to see some skew-T's for my area with this from the models. anyone know a page a can get this information from? 850's crash after the transfer with a nice deformation band near by or over Chattanooga with 850's below freezing but all show little to basically no snowfall. We must have raging temps below 5,000ft. I know the valley has a hard time cooling down in situations like this but I would think a nasty deformation band like that would pull down some cold air for a transition and accumulation Go to twisterdata.com and pull up a map. Clicking a spot on a map brings up the soundings I believe. On my phone so I can't verify right now. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Go to twisterdata.com and pull up a map. Clicking a spot on a map brings up the soundings I believe. On my phone so I can't verify right now. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk perfect, I found it! Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nam is much further S by the looks so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Maybe not by much,stronger though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nam is much further S by the looks so far Yes it does the low never makes it into TN. Much better. I'm not jumping off the cliff yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbowman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hearing that NAM is much better run for BNA this time. Sent from my LG-H901 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hearing that NAM is much better run for BNA this time. Sent from my LG-H901 using Tapatalk Yea, I think so, this may be our boom instead of bust storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hearing that NAM is much better run for BNA this time. Sent from my LG-H901 using Tapatalk yup...7.7 Nash so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yes it does the low never makes it into TN. Much better. I'm not jumping off the cliff yet. Jumping from Gate City? Man, you are golden unless you find a dryslot. Tomorrow morning you should find VERY heavy snow falling with the initial band. It looks impressive on almost all modeling for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbowman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 yup...7.7 Nash so farKeep it piling up. I have a bucket list item of seeing a 1 foot snowfall in Nashville. Would be nice to see that before I'm too old to enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 yup...7.7 Nash so far yea I dont think we ever make it to 40 today which will be an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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