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Jan 22-23 Winter Storm Event..."The Middle Tennessee Mauler"


Carvers Gap

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Very salient point my friend.  Gotta watch the trends, we'll be in RAP/HRRR range soon enough and then the story will be told.

 

I wonder if there is a delay in w the non-American models getting some of the newer, better data.  Ian in the MA probably can answer that.  So, I hesitate to say the Euro holds serve.  It looks like the GFS/SREF/RGEM have newer data.  But of course, it could just be the Euro has better physics which IMO it does. 

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I wonder if there is a delay in w the non-American models getting some of the newer, better data. Ian in the MA probably can answer that. So, I hesitate to say the Euro holds serve. It looks like the GFS/SREF/RGEM have newer data. But of course, it could just be the Euro has better physics which IMO it does.

I would think they have the same data. Just a hunch, but if not I am guessing we would have heard about that in the past

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I wonder if there is a delay in w the non-American models getting some of the newer, better data.  Ian in the MA probably can answer that.  So, I hesitate to say the Euro holds serve.  It looks like the GFS/SREF/RGEM have newer data.  But of course, it could just be the Euro has better physics which IMO it does. 

 

I see no reason why there would not be a direct link between groups for the input data.  But who knows.

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Here are my takeaways from the 0z Euro...

 

1.  Snow amounts are similar in NE TN.  SE KY and SW VA are less.  W NC is more.  SW VA from say Marion west is more. 

2.  Purely a comment for the NE TN poster(sorry for the regionalism).  Qpf is 1.2" of liquid and we get 10" of snow.  That tells me we get very little mixing.  Probably some sleet.  At hr 48, we go to 34.  The only time during the event we are above freezing.  Very little warm nose in the northern portion of the eastern Valley.  Prob why Knoxville gets more snow.  NE TN also gets 4-6" before hour 42 and 4-6" after the secondary hits the coast.

3.  The band in west/middle TN is there and has been as constant a feature as NE TN getting snow.

4.  It snows in northern Louisiana. 

5.  Seems like the snowpack is working.

6.  Like I said earlier, I am a little nervous that the American suite of SREF, GFS, and NAM have the better data and maybe there is a lag in that data getting to say the GEM, UKMET, and Euro.  But IMHO, the Euro just seems to have better physics.  Time and time again that model has stood alone and won. 

7.  KY's snow totals are less.  Virginia just gets hammered on this run.

8.  Lastly, w/ the band out west being a bit less...that tells me the Euro is a bit faster w/ the primary and/or it is weaker. 

9.  As of this writing, IMO the Euro (in regards to the TN Valley, not MA) has very little support from any short range model. 

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I see no reason why there would not be a direct link between groups for the input data.  But who knows.

 

My mind is tired at this point.  I would think the exact same thing...but seems like I read in another forum that different models might ingest the data at different times.  Would be great if someone could clear that up....  But I definitely read that somewhere, but I may be admittedly off(hope I am off!) w the details.

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I would think they have the same data. Just a hunch, but if not I am guessing we would have heard about that in the past

 

If that is the case, the 0z Euro has held serve for about five days.  If it had caved tonight(and I thought it would due to new data not due to its physics), it was game, set, match.  I would feel better if some of the short range models support it.  The SREF, NAM, and GFS basically blank the Valley.  The 0z Euro, Ukie, and Canadian hold serve.  As long as they got the same data as the American suite...I know where I would put my money but hedge a bit until the short range models came on board.

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Right now, I'd be most nervous in Northern Alabama and South of 40 in Tennessee. You know if your area is prone to getting shafted by warm noses or not. If it is, you're going to get it in spades with this storm. Just have to hope the primary holds together long enough to get you in the game on the back side. Further west you are the better it looks for you if you are further south.  I think I read that the Euro tracked the primary very far east before the transfer happened, which helps explain it's holding onto big snow totals.

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I also don't think there's enough difference in the Ky snow totals to say it's anything other than in the standard deviation for a model from run to run. It's generally got 10-15 inches in the same areas that had 10-15 inches on the 12z run.

 

Yeah, I flipped the slides back and forth several times like the eye doctor does to get a good prescription.  Just looked weaker on the western end of things.  But I wouldn't bet my house on that(my) statement.

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That is good news.  The EPS will be telling.  What is crazy, it is a foregone conclusion that the MA gets hammered along w/ VA.  The entire TN Valley is still a big question mark.

I think North Carolina north is set on their frozen prescription, whether it's marred by mixing or not that far south, time will tell. I even think West Tennessee and most all of Kentucky are set too. It's Nashville to Knoxville that are very questionable. Tri-Cities are much less questionable. Chattanooga to Huntsville to Lawrenceburg are gonna have to hope for good luck with the deform area Robert talked about.

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Sooo, check this out.  You all tell me...Miller A or B.  JMA from 0z.

 

0h

post-769-0-44006600-1453360077_thumb.jpg

 

24h

post-769-0-44467200-1453360094_thumb.jpg

 

48h

post-769-0-53996300-1453360109_thumb.jpg

 

72h

post-769-0-77800500-1453360129_thumb.jpg

 

Total Precip through 72

post-769-0-62557100-1453360143_thumb.jpg

 

Normally, I don't use the JMA...but it has been consistent w this look.  It also has a spooky tendency to do well w/ big East Coast storms.  It is also a cult favorite.  So, A or B?

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It looks straight Miller A to me. Honestly the Euro and UK are much closer to Miller A's too. 

 

I know.  I have said this for two days that they look like this.  There is a bit of energy transfer w/ the Euro.  But the UKIE and JMA just go almost Miller A.  I wonder if those two have a bias towards that?  But yeah, even the GEFS has a little Miller A in it.  Blend all models together and you kind of get a hybrid.  But w the 96' analog out there...prob won't be an A...and it is a bit tough to tell w/out smaller time increments on the JMA and UKIE. 

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1.21.16 0z NavGEM is a Miller A.  Looks very similar to the Euro but w/ no handoff.  2" liquid qpf over middle TN.  1"+ over the eastern Valley.  If you have WxBell, very impressive look.  Not anywhere near the Euro in terms of verification, but I like to check around and see what other models are placing as their solutions. 

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Per wpc there were initialization errors on the NAM/GFS.

 

Also had this to say of the NAM.

 

 

 

THE MODEL SPREAD TIMING/DEPTH-WISE ALOFT IS RATHER SMALL,
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE PREFERENCE. THE 12Z CANADIAN WASN'T
AS SHARP ALOFT AS THE OTHER GUIDANCE, BUT SHOWS SIMILAR TIMING.
THE 00Z NAM WAS A TOUCH SLOW WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM PORTION
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST, WHICH DOES NOT BEFIT THE FLOW
PATTERN, WHICH IS TEMPORARILY QUASI-ZONAL IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. 

 

 

THE 00Z NAM/GFS MAINLY APPEAR SLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THE 500/700
HPA LEVELS, ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SPREAD

 

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HPC as of 1:40 this morning regarding model guidance they are forecasting off of.

 

:lmao:  Well....mercy!  Very surprised.  But I am not...they have been more consistent.  Seems to answer any questions about data as well. I just looked at the 0z EPS control snow totals.  Held serve w/ previous runs.  Rock solid.

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