Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Trends matter on ops right now, maybe even more so than ensembles. Right now (in the SE, not MA) it is NAM, GFS, RGEM in one camp as far as lows and GEM/UKMET in the other. I don't like that short range models show very little for the Valley as a whole. I will not count the JMA since it may not have the new data - just guessing. If the Euro holds w the UKIE, the system for us is still alive...otherwise we are reaching the point where models rarely flip back to the other solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Not sure if the UK was north of it's prior runs or not since 12z was mostly unavailable. But it's probably 100-150 miles south of the NAM/GFS solution. They use to let you see the archive,not no more i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 UK was pretty good for some of us. 850s were cooperative for snow at hour 36 over a good portion of East Tennessee, which surprised me. 30-36 is when heavy precip moves into the area and it appears to cool the column. Temp are probably 31-33 degrees from the Plateau east, north of 40 during that time and something like .5 qpf falls. West Tennessee is also getting pounded during this time, as is Southern Ky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 They use to let you see the archive,not no more i guess From what I understood there was an issue with the 12z run today and very few panels actually showed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just looking at the evolution of the Ukie you could tell it was going to be a good run for many of the I-40 N crowd. Hopefully the euro backs the GEFS and UKIE here in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That one might be old. Slide the new on in there and I will delete this once u have seen it. My bad, at the time that looked like the current run. Anyway, here is the refreshed 0z gefs mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think the best case scenario for east TN would be to be just cold enough for a heavy wet snow (4-6 inches) Friday morning, then drizzle and dryslot before catching 1-3 on the backlash. For central TN and west TN - the deform band is where dreams are realized and/or crushed. If you are lucky enough to get into this PLEASE take pictures/video of your 2-3 inch an hour rates and share them with us. Hoping the backside can also grab some of you guys in northern AL or MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Surface temps at 36, 850s. Precip. 10-15mm = .4 to .6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 euro is a little east and stronger than last night 24h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 euro sticking i already got .59 frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The UK has that same amount of precip falling 30-36, 36-42, before dry slotting east Tennessee 42-48, then giving another .30 or so from 48-60. 850s are never above freezing north of 40 in East Tennessee after 36. By 48 they are below freezing everywhere except the Southern and Central Valley in East Tennessee and Nashville is getting blitzed by the deform band with sub freezing 850s and surface temps, probably getting 3-5 inches of snow during that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 might have cut back from this afternoon,not sure yet if thats all,still 99 cloud cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 .63,fixing to end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What's the data of frozen for TYS and TRI? Sounds similar to 12z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 euro sticking i already got .59 frozen Kidding that's awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 .45 tys .85 tri should be still going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 .64 bna,its over for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 damn carver 1.08 still going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like the Euros vs the US. Hope it's different than the revolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 .61 tys..about over i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 mem .56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 .58 csv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 looks over for tri 1.14 The winner..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Temporary view of the 0z Euro snow: Thanks,i;m right below nashville so it looks ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like the north side of Nash does ok,we live about 10-15 miles from the airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'll take 5-6 inches for Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like the north side of Nash does ok,we live about 10-15 miles from the airport Definitely looks like a close call over your way! So now the BIG question is......... What did the nam/GFS/RGEM/Sref all eat? I want to hug the euro, but is it really going to beat 3 mesoscale models?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 .61 tys..about over i think Frozen? That's nuts! The Euro's lemonade brings all the central valley weenies to the yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Definitely looks like a close call over your way! So now the BIG question is......... What did the nam/GFS/RGEM/Sref all eat? I want to hug the euro, but is it really going to beat 3 mesoscale models?? Very salient point my friend. Gotta watch the trends, we'll be in RAP/HRRR range soon enough and then the story will be told. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I want to say the new Euro isn't far off in resolution from the NAM. Isn't the UK also very high resolution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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