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Jan 22-23 Winter Storm Event..."The Middle Tennessee Mauler"


Carvers Gap

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Trends matter on ops right now, maybe even more so than ensembles. Right now (in the SE, not MA) it is NAM, GFS, RGEM in one camp as far as lows and GEM/UKMET in the other. I don't like that short range models show very little for the Valley as a whole. I will not count the JMA since it may not have the new data - just guessing. If the Euro holds w the UKIE, the system for us is still alive...otherwise we are reaching the point where models rarely flip back to the other solution.

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UK was pretty good for some of us. 850s were cooperative for snow at hour 36 over a good portion of East Tennessee, which surprised me. 30-36 is when heavy precip moves into the area and it appears to cool the column. Temp are probably 31-33 degrees from the Plateau east, north of 40 during that time and something like .5 qpf falls. West Tennessee is also getting pounded during this time, as is Southern Ky.

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I think the best case scenario for east TN would be to be just cold enough for a heavy wet snow (4-6 inches) Friday morning, then drizzle and dryslot before catching 1-3 on the backlash.

For central TN and west TN - the deform band is where dreams are realized and/or crushed. If you are lucky enough to get into this PLEASE take pictures/video of your 2-3 inch an hour rates and share them with us.

Hoping the backside can also grab some of you guys in northern AL or MS.

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The UK has that same amount of precip falling 30-36, 36-42, before dry slotting east Tennessee 42-48, then giving another .30 or so from 48-60. 850s are never above freezing north of 40 in East Tennessee after 36. By 48 they are below freezing everywhere except the Southern and Central Valley in East Tennessee and Nashville is getting blitzed by the deform band with sub freezing 850s and surface temps, probably getting 3-5 inches of snow during that time frame.

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Definitely looks like a close call over your way!

So now the BIG question is......... What did the nam/GFS/RGEM/Sref all eat? I want to hug the euro, but is it really going to beat 3 mesoscale models??

 

Very salient point my friend.  Gotta watch the trends, we'll be in RAP/HRRR range soon enough and then the story will be told.

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