Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 0z NAM Snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Saw this on Twitter. Might explain NAM's track: WXSOUTH @WxSouth NAM has issue when mid level circ hits base of Apps and Miller B in general. Euro implies 7h, 5h and 850 lows will roll thru n. GA. into SC Sent from my XT1055 using Tapatalk Very much looks like the new data ingested into the model is what caused the shift. RGEM is going to show almost the exact solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustincollins Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS coming in, we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattChaser Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Gotta be honest, I follow Robert quite a bit and think he's a pretty accurate forecaster, but to see the generous outline of mod/heavy snow has me a bit perplexed. This thing would definitely have to bomb out big time and take a more southern and eastern track to come even close to verifying. Btw, I'm interpreting heavy here as 20-30" and mod/heavy as 10-20"? Edit: Welp, I have no idea how to upload images here but hopefully some of you know what I'm referencing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustincollins Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS is shifting North as well. Looks a lot like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS wasn't north, just slightly slower. 18z had the lp at the same latitude, but slightly further east before the transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustincollins Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS wasn't north, just slightly slower. 18z had the lp at the same latitude, but slightly further east before the transfer. I wasn't enough Frames in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 0z GFS snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The bad thing for most of us, with the GFS solutions we need it to get as far east as possible before it transfers so we get wrap around snows. Every time it's shown an early transfer our snow totals are way down between West Tennessee to far Eastern Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 0z GFS snow axis is well north. The Valley is flooded with waa. The new data is in the model. Gotta be real. This one has probably passed us by... Was great following the thing the past few days. Veteran members stick around. New folks stay with us. Can't really blame a forecaster on this one. Better data ingest equals more accurate solutions. In this case, it appears the more accurate solution is not over most of TN. Tough luck. The way it goes sometimes. Thoroughly have enjoyed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 We'll see if the Euro comes north. The GFS and NAM have solidly maintained their track. It's about timing with those two. The euro, jma and ukie have been track and timing. Something has to give soon with one of them or one is going to bust by a few hundred miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 0z GFS snow axis is well north. The Valley is flooded with waa. The new data is in the model. Gotta be real. This one has probably passed us by... Was great following the thing the past few days. Veteran members stick around. New folks stay with us. Can't really blame a forecaster on this one. Better data ingest equals more accurate solutions. In this case, it appears the more accurate solution is not over most of TN. Tough luck. The way it goes sometimes. Thoroughly have enjoyed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 We'll see if the Euro comes north. The GFS and NAM have solidly maintained their track. It's about timing with those two. The euro, jma and ukie have been track and timing. Something has to give soon with one of them or one is going to bust by a few hundred miles. All about better data IMO...the GFS has had the primary in southwest KY, SE KY, northern AL this week. Euro has been pretty steady for four or five days in primary and secondary placement. But make not mistake, changes are coming on the Euro tonight. And really the NAM is just now coming into range. Not really the fault of any of the models. Just better data. This happened last year over North Carolina for the "blizzard that never was." But overall, the Euro has led the way in the general placement of big snows over the MA. It has rarely wavered once it locked into that solution. That should stay the same. And is the solution of the current 0z. GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 We'll see if the Euro comes north. The GFS and NAM have solidly maintained their track. It's about timing with those two. The euro, jma and ukie have been track and timing. Something has to give soon with one of them or one is going to bust by a few hundred miles. That and the GEFS which was further S than the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wow..My totals have been cut in half..Hard to believe this close to a storm that big of change..Guess that's what i get for wishing devastation..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 LOL. It ain't over till it's over for sure. But not wanting to give false hope w model trends that are quickly diverging from the snow solutions of the past few days. I think the good thing for our forum is we can laugh about it. Debating whether to set the alarm for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The big difference was timing and strength. The low was further west for longer and 2 mb stronger. That sent more warm air north. I don't know if I'm ready to buy that as exact gospel or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That slight slowdown caused NW NC, SW VA, and even Southern WVA to lose 50-70 percent of their prior snow totals. But we've seen small wavering all week. Maybe this is exactly right, maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wow..My totals have been cut in half..Hard to believe this close to a storm that big of change..Guess that's what i get for wishing devastation..lol In half? My totals got cut in whole. The NAM said "see that guy in that one particular spot in west Knox county? Blank him in particular!" Zero, pretty funny. Anyway, it's just a couple of runs, but I'm definitely interested in seeing where the Euro goes tonight. The ensembles, especially the GEFS have me mildly confident for a couple or three inches. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Gem stayed mostly snow north of I-40.... 1 out of four isn't bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 In half? My totals got cut in whole. The NAM said "see that guy in that one particular spot in west Knox county? Blank him in particular!" Zero, pretty funny. Anyway, it's just a couple of runs, but I'm definitely interested in seeing where the Euro goes tonight. The ensembles, especially the GEFS have me mildly confident for a couple or three inches. We'll see. Stove, how does the gefs look. I am assuming it has support from its other members due to other models being very similar. How does the gefs clown look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Stove, how does the gefs look. I am assuming it has support from its other members due to other models being very similar. How does the gefs clown look? My GEFS comment was based off 18z, don't reckon 0z is out yet. Edit: 18z had a mean of 4-5 inches all the way down to like Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 0z RGEM at hour 48 (still underway) Gives my peeps in Paris a foot+ of snow, congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 0z GGEM snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Well the 0z GEFS mean snow is impressive, to say the least. Haven't looked over the individuals yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Not sure if the UK was north of it's prior runs or not since 12z was mostly unavailable. But it's probably 100-150 miles south of the NAM/GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Numerical Model Prediction Tropical Tidbits.png Looks like the OP is on the northern edge of the ensemble cluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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