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Jan 22-23 Winter Storm Event..."The Middle Tennessee Mauler"


Carvers Gap

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Major shift in my forecast as well, was rain and mid 40s with no switch to frozen before Friday evening.

 

 

 

 
Thursday
A slight chance of rain between 10am and 1pm, then a chance of showers after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Thursday Night
Rain showers before 10pm, then snow showers, possibly mixed with sleet. Low around 32. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Friday
Snow showers, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all snow after 1pm. High near 34. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Friday Night
Snow. Low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Saturday
A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 29.
Saturday Night
A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15.
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You know as heights crash in...who knows.  There is some serious air that bleeds northeast into the Valley as the primary slides by.  I am trying to remember which storm this was, but I used to live over on Lonas near Papermill in Knoxville.  I am thinking this was the 96' storm.  We had rain, snow, and then ice.  Stayed around for a while and my apartment started leaking.  Somebody needs to dig-up the records for what happened in Knoxville from an atmospheric standpoint during the 96 event.  Seems like this event will be snow, sleet or rain.  But w/ snowcover on the ground, models could be overestimating your starting temps.  Not trying to throw false hope out there.

Yeah this was what I was curious about. Snow pack can't hurt. Especially considering the difference between a couple of degrees could make all the difference. 

 

Also, today we were initially supposed to get right at or above freezing. Hasn't happened yet. Sitting at 28.

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OHX:

SOMEWHAT RARE TO
SEE CLOSED 700 MBAR LOW THIS FAR SOUTH BUT WE HAVE ONE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO...GOOD DEFORMATION ZONES DEVELOPS ACROSS TENNESSEE.
SO EVERYTHING STACKING UP FOR A GOOD SNOW EVENT HERE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE HEFTY AND
RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

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MEG:

 

BELIEVE PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN CHANGING OVER TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES AS 925MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -2C. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AS THE ELEVATED WARM
LAYER ERODES. FORECAST SKEWT`S SHOW AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ESTABLISHING ITSELF FROM SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND INTO WEST TENNESSEE
ALONG THE 500MB LOW TRACK. THIS AXIS POTENTIALLY COULD CREATE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE
. THE SNOW WILL HAVE A HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND THIS COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS
MAY CREATE DOWN TREE LIMBS/SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES...ALONG WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND MORE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. HAVEN`T HAD TO
MUCH TO TIME TO CHECK FOR POTENTIAL CSI FORMING...BUT SEEING THE
MODELS TRANSITION THE UPPER TROUGH FROM OPEN TO A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE ARKLAMISS CSI WOULD BE FAVORABLE JUST TO IT`S NORTHEAST. SNOWFALL
RATES OF AN INCH OR MORE AN HOUR AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSNOW WOULD
BE THE RESULT.

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Check out the 18z NAM simulated radar:

 

 

 

Very interesting.  Can certainly see some downsloping effects on the TN side of the Smokies for a frame or two.  Then the wrap around gets us.  Hopefully, we will squeeze out a respectable couple of inches before it all pulls out.

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They seem to have fixed the mixed precip issues that clown maps often have. 

I don't know. All of these maps overdo snowfall in the WNC CAD zones. I know that's a bad word on this forum, but I doubt that most of WNC actually verifies at 20"+. Probably a lot of sleet in that.

 

I wish I could chase this. I'd head towards Clarksville, get a cheap hotel room and a case of beer and enjoy a long weekend and possible blizzard conditions. Unfortunately I have house guests coming in from Atlanta on Friday.

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Northern stream interference is absent the Friday system. Instead a favorable cold low level ridge works in from the north. It will be windy. Kentucky may have an all out blizzard. Northern Tennessee, especially the Upper Plateau and northeast Tenn, should enjoy stout snow totals. Inverted trough already on models should add to the festivities. 

 

Points south will depend on a comma head / TROWAL feature coming out of the Mid South / Arkansas. West Tennessee could get a payday from that feature. It includes the classic 850 WAA (all below freezing) from northeast back to southwest. For North Alabama into North Georgia, or at least Chattanooga, I'm hoping for a repeat of February 2014 rain to inches of snow.

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Northern stream interference is absent the Friday system. Instead a favorable cold low level ridge works in from the north. It will be windy. Kentucky may have an all out blizzard. Northern Tennessee, especially the Upper Plateau and northeast Tenn, should enjoy stout snow totals. Inverted trough already on models should add to the festivities. 

 

Points south will depend on a comma head / TROWAL feature coming out of the Mid South / Arkansas. West Tennessee could get a payday from that feature. It includes the classic 850 WAA (all below freezing) from northeast back to southwest. For North Alabama into North Georgia, or at least Chattanooga, I'm hoping for a repeat of February 2014 rain to inches of snow.

According to the NWS in Nashville only expect about 3" from the system, not sure how they come up with that.

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Not seen anyone talk about what type of snow this will be..I'm in SE Ky not to far from Virginia border..Expecting a good thumping..Hate to ask but will this be a fluffy snow lol or a paste job..Good with heat but was wondering if one should buy more gas for the generator..Thxs

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Not seen anyone talk about what type of snow this will be..I'm in SE Ky not to far from Virginia border..Expecting a good thumping..Hate to ask but will this be a fluffy snow lol or a paste job..Good with heat but was wondering if one should buy more gas for the generator..Thxs

I believe it'll be some of both. It'll transition from wet snow to powdery as Temps fall into the 20s.

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Northern stream interference is absent the Friday system. Instead a favorable cold low level ridge works in from the north. It will be windy. Kentucky may have an all out blizzard. Northern Tennessee, especially the Upper Plateau and northeast Tenn, should enjoy stout snow totals. Inverted trough already on models should add to the festivities.

Points south will depend on a comma head / TROWAL feature coming out of the Mid South / Arkansas. West Tennessee could get a payday from that feature. It includes the classic 850 WAA (all below freezing) from northeast back to southwest. For North Alabama into North Georgia, or at least Chattanooga, I'm hoping for a repeat of February 2014 rain to inches of snow.

Thanks for the input Jeff, hope you have been doing well. We (KTRI) were projected to get to 35 this afternoon and only made it to the mid 20's. What kind of an impact will snow cover have for the areas that saw 3-6" today? Tomorrows highs are projected to hit the low to mid 40s across east TN. Guessing it could help hold temps down again tomorrow by 3-5 degrees?

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Not seen anyone talk about what type of snow this will be..I'm in SE Ky not to far from Virginia border..Expecting a good thumping..Hate to ask but will this be a fluffy snow lol or a paste job..Good with heat but was wondering if one should buy more gas for the generator..Thxs

 

Almost all models show southeast KY looking very good.  If you don't do well, nobody else is south of you.  Prime real estate. 

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