John1122 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Major shift in my forecast as well, was rain and mid 40s with no switch to frozen before Friday evening. Thursday A slight chance of rain between 10am and 1pm, then a chance of showers after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Thursday Night Rain showers before 10pm, then snow showers, possibly mixed with sleet. Low around 32. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. Friday Snow showers, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all snow after 1pm. High near 34. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Friday Night Snow. Low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 29. Saturday Night A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Now if we can just get the SE involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM is looking really good just waiting for the good maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 You know as heights crash in...who knows. There is some serious air that bleeds northeast into the Valley as the primary slides by. I am trying to remember which storm this was, but I used to live over on Lonas near Papermill in Knoxville. I am thinking this was the 96' storm. We had rain, snow, and then ice. Stayed around for a while and my apartment started leaking. Somebody needs to dig-up the records for what happened in Knoxville from an atmospheric standpoint during the 96 event. Seems like this event will be snow, sleet or rain. But w/ snowcover on the ground, models could be overestimating your starting temps. Not trying to throw false hope out there. Yeah this was what I was curious about. Snow pack can't hurt. Especially considering the difference between a couple of degrees could make all the difference. Also, today we were initially supposed to get right at or above freezing. Hasn't happened yet. Sitting at 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Goodness. The NAM is laying down 8-20 inches for a lot of the area through 60 and it's still snowing over the Eastern half of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 DT's not often very accurate for our area, (to be expected since he doesn't forecast our area), but wanted to share because it appears just from his map he expects a deeper and colder system overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 John..is that showing for the Central Valley as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That run, south of 40 across the whole state is in 4 inches (some may be zr/ip) to 6+. 6-8 along the 40 corridor looks possible. 8-12 with higher totals along the Kentucky/Va border. 10-20 in Southwest Va, Southeast Ky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 John..is that showing for the Central Valley as well? It's showing 4-8 over the central Valley of East Tennessee, though some of that could be sleet/freezing rain. The entire state shows 2 inches or more, even Chattanooga. Though once again, that could be mixed precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 DT's not often very accurate for our area, (to be expected since he doesn't forecast our area), but wanted to share because it appears just from his map he expects a deeper and colder system overall. Weather DT first guess snowfall map 01202016.jpg Hoping for a surprise here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 OHX: SOMEWHAT RARE TOSEE CLOSED 700 MBAR LOW THIS FAR SOUTH BUT WE HAVE ONE WITH THISSYSTEM. ALSO...GOOD DEFORMATION ZONES DEVELOPS ACROSS TENNESSEE.SO EVERYTHING STACKING UP FOR A GOOD SNOW EVENT HERE IN MIDDLETENNESSEE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS COULD BE HEFTY ANDRANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 MEG: BELIEVE PRECIPITATIONWILL BEGIN CHANGING OVER TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTCOUNTIES AS 925MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -2C. A BRIEF PERIODOF SLEET APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AS THE ELEVATED WARMLAYER ERODES. FORECAST SKEWT`S SHOW AN EXTENDED PERIOD OFFAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ESTABLISHING ITSELF FROM SOUTHEASTARKANSAS THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND INTO WEST TENNESSEEALONG THE 500MB LOW TRACK. THIS AXIS POTENTIALLY COULD CREATEACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE. THE SNOW WILL HAVE A HIGHMOISTURE CONTENT AND THIS COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDSMAY CREATE DOWN TREE LIMBS/SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES...ALONG WITHREDUCED VISIBILITIES AND MORE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. HAVEN`T HAD TOMUCH TO TIME TO CHECK FOR POTENTIAL CSI FORMING...BUT SEEING THEMODELS TRANSITION THE UPPER TROUGH FROM OPEN TO A CLOSED LOW OVERTHE ARKLAMISS CSI WOULD BE FAVORABLE JUST TO IT`S NORTHEAST. SNOWFALLRATES OF AN INCH OR MORE AN HOUR AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSNOW WOULDBE THE RESULT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Check out the 18z NAM simulated radar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 18z NAM snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 18z NAM snow: They seem to have fixed the mixed precip issues that clown maps often have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Check out the 18z NAM simulated radar: Very interesting. Can certainly see some downsloping effects on the TN side of the Smokies for a frame or two. Then the wrap around gets us. Hopefully, we will squeeze out a respectable couple of inches before it all pulls out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 They seem to have fixed the mixed precip issues that clown maps often have. I don't know. All of these maps overdo snowfall in the WNC CAD zones. I know that's a bad word on this forum, but I doubt that most of WNC actually verifies at 20"+. Probably a lot of sleet in that. I wish I could chase this. I'd head towards Clarksville, get a cheap hotel room and a case of beer and enjoy a long weekend and possible blizzard conditions. Unfortunately I have house guests coming in from Atlanta on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 18z GFS Snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 18z GFS Snow: Would this be the type of system that would produce blizzard conditions? I dont know that Nashville has ever had a blizzard warning or even watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Northern stream interference is absent the Friday system. Instead a favorable cold low level ridge works in from the north. It will be windy. Kentucky may have an all out blizzard. Northern Tennessee, especially the Upper Plateau and northeast Tenn, should enjoy stout snow totals. Inverted trough already on models should add to the festivities. Points south will depend on a comma head / TROWAL feature coming out of the Mid South / Arkansas. West Tennessee could get a payday from that feature. It includes the classic 850 WAA (all below freezing) from northeast back to southwest. For North Alabama into North Georgia, or at least Chattanooga, I'm hoping for a repeat of February 2014 rain to inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Northern stream interference is absent the Friday system. Instead a favorable cold low level ridge works in from the north. It will be windy. Kentucky may have an all out blizzard. Northern Tennessee, especially the Upper Plateau and northeast Tenn, should enjoy stout snow totals. Inverted trough already on models should add to the festivities. Points south will depend on a comma head / TROWAL feature coming out of the Mid South / Arkansas. West Tennessee could get a payday from that feature. It includes the classic 850 WAA (all below freezing) from northeast back to southwest. For North Alabama into North Georgia, or at least Chattanooga, I'm hoping for a repeat of February 2014 rain to inches of snow. According to the NWS in Nashville only expect about 3" from the system, not sure how they come up with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looks like the RGEM is just hammering everyone by the end of its run which is 1 pm Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not seen anyone talk about what type of snow this will be..I'm in SE Ky not to far from Virginia border..Expecting a good thumping..Hate to ask but will this be a fluffy snow lol or a paste job..Good with heat but was wondering if one should buy more gas for the generator..Thxs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 According to the NWS in Nashville only expect about 3" from the system, not sure how they come up with that. Give it until tomorrow before you see anyone going all in on huge totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not seen anyone talk about what type of snow this will be..I'm in SE Ky not to far from Virginia border..Expecting a good thumping..Hate to ask but will this be a fluffy snow lol or a paste job..Good with heat but was wondering if one should buy more gas for the generator..Thxs I believe it'll be some of both. It'll transition from wet snow to powdery as Temps fall into the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Northern stream interference is absent the Friday system. Instead a favorable cold low level ridge works in from the north. It will be windy. Kentucky may have an all out blizzard. Northern Tennessee, especially the Upper Plateau and northeast Tenn, should enjoy stout snow totals. Inverted trough already on models should add to the festivities. Points south will depend on a comma head / TROWAL feature coming out of the Mid South / Arkansas. West Tennessee could get a payday from that feature. It includes the classic 850 WAA (all below freezing) from northeast back to southwest. For North Alabama into North Georgia, or at least Chattanooga, I'm hoping for a repeat of February 2014 rain to inches of snow. Thanks for the input Jeff, hope you have been doing well. We (KTRI) were projected to get to 35 this afternoon and only made it to the mid 20's. What kind of an impact will snow cover have for the areas that saw 3-6" today? Tomorrows highs are projected to hit the low to mid 40s across east TN. Guessing it could help hold temps down again tomorrow by 3-5 degrees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I believe it'll be some of both. It'll transition from wet snow to powdery as Temps fall into the 20s. Thxs John..Really was hoping for total Devastation but will take what ever mother nature throws at us..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Seems like the RGEM did well with todays system. Hope it's onto something for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looks like the RGEM is just hammering everyone by the end of its run which is 1 pm Friday. Heckava warm nose on that RGEM's last frame but yes much of the valley get's nailed: Hour 54 snow total (storm still underway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not seen anyone talk about what type of snow this will be..I'm in SE Ky not to far from Virginia border..Expecting a good thumping..Hate to ask but will this be a fluffy snow lol or a paste job..Good with heat but was wondering if one should buy more gas for the generator..Thxs Almost all models show southeast KY looking very good. If you don't do well, nobody else is south of you. Prime real estate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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