Jan 22-23 Winter Storm Event..."The Middle Tennessee Mauler"

[Carvers Gap]

Good luck. 1234 has an event thread for the Weds 1-3" event.  This thread will be for the potential EC storm on Thursday and Friday and future short range events....unless the EC storm dumps on the TN Valley and then I will retag this thread just for that event alone for future reference.

[tnweathernut]

The first event might be enough to give the I-40 and north crowd (especially central TN) a quick accumulating snow, followed by a transition to freezing rain/rain.  It sure looks like it could create a MESS for Wednesday morning.

The system after has my full attention for the upper mid-south and my current belief is that it will all depend on the phase.  12z GFS has the phase just before the Mississippi River.  This would likely translate into a good snow for west and middle Tennessee, but would bring a warm nose to keep most of east TN rain (outside the mountains).  There is a transfer shown, so east TN would have to wait for the wrap around to see accumulating snows.  It's possible, but that's such a tricky game waiting on wrap around.

 

 

 

[weathertree4u]

The first event might be enough to give the I-40 and north crowd (especially central TN) a quick accumulating snow, followed by a transition to freezing rain/rain.  It sure looks like it could create a MESS for Wednesday morning.

The system after has my full attention for the upper mid-south and my current belief is that it will all depend on the phase.  12z GFS has the phase just before the Mississippi River.  This would likely translate into a good snow for west and middle Tennessee, but would bring a warm nose to keep most of east TN rain (outside the mountains).  There is a transfer shown, so east TN would have to wait for the wrap around to see accumulating snows.  It's possible, but that's such a tricky game waiting on wrap around.

 

GFS 12z 500 vorticity hr 84 01182016.png

I like what i see so far it has been too long for Middle Tennessee, we are overdue

[tnweathernut]

I like what i see so far it has been too long for Middle Tennessee, we are overdue

Timing the phase will be VERY tricky on modeling and expect future changes.  I am hopeful that you can get buried in the next 5 days, but you will definitely be on the fence wrt the thermal profiles.  When is the Nashville area not in a possible snow situation?

[Carvers Gap]

Ensemble runs will be very important w/ these systems to see if the operational is on its own or has support.  Also, operational models can sometimes reveal trends w/ the system. 

[weathertree4u]

Timing the phase will be VERY tricky on modeling and expect future changes.  I am hopeful that you can get buried in the next 5 days, but you will definitely be on the fence wrt the thermal profiles.  When is the Nashville area not in a possible snow situation?

In these situations, it almost always pays to live north of town, sometimes that is all it takes, a little elevation!

[Carvers Gap]

Timing the phase will be VERY tricky on modeling and expect future changes.  I am hopeful that you can get buried in the next 5 days, but you will definitely be on the fence wrt the thermal profiles.  When is the Nashville area not in a possible snow situation?

 

Very good point.  There have definitely been slight variations on how much energy moves west of the Apps and when it transfers.  How strong and where that high pressure is...all questions that are important to answer.  Really hope someone in the TN Valley (west, middle, east, all or a combo) cash-in. 

[tnweathernut]

In these situations, it almost always pays to live north of town, sometimes that is all it takes, a little elevation!

I know your area well, grew up coming to a church in Cottontown and that's where my late mother grew up and a great uncle lived.  You don't have the elevation of Portand, but being away from the city of Nashville and north of Gallatin can't hurt you in a situation like this.  

 

Snowfall will still depend on where the phase occurs.   Looks at this point to be a very dynamic system so wherever the primary low goes will likely have a heavy snow band to it's northwest that slowly decays as the transfer takes place.  Whether it's someone in TN or KY that sees this snow band is still largely up in the air.  Of course we are still 4 days away too, so A LOT can still change (for better or worse)

[1234snow]

12z GFS clown. Although it shows a sub-1000mb low barreling into the valley most of TN does well on this one with wrap around moisture. Mid Atlantic gets crushed again. I think it is a good sign to have an unfavorable miller B(for eastern sections) and still get a decent map like this. This map includes the mid week storm as well.

[weathertree4u]

I know your area well, grew up coming to a church in Cottontown and that's where my late mother grew up and a great uncle lived.  You don't have the elevation of Portand, but being away from the city of Nashville and north of Gallatin can't hurt you in a situation like this.  

 

Snowfall will still depend on where the phase occurs.   Looks at this point to be a very dynamic system so wherever the primary low goes will likely have a heavy snow band to it's northwest that slowly decays as the transfer takes place.  Whether it's someone in TN or KY that sees this snow band is still largely up in the air.  Of course we are still 4 days away too, so A LOT can still change (for better or worse)

Great, yea, small world.

 

Yes, when I was saying elevation, I was saying in reference to Nashville. Portland, White House, Springfield, Cross Plains, Ridgetop are all on the Highland Rim, sometimes that little bit of elevation is all it takes, seen it many times before in my 45 years.

[weathertree4u]

12z GFS clown. Although it shows a sub-1000mb low barreling into the valley most of TN does well on this one with wrap around moisture. Mid Atlantic gets crushed again. I think it is a good sign to have an unfavorable miller B(for eastern sections) and still get a decent map like this. This map includes the mid week storm as well.

I like it. Wonder what the map looks like through the end of the month, including the possible system next week?

[1234snow]

I like it. Wonder what the map looks like through the end of the month, including the possible system next week?

[weathertree4u]

That looks great too but I just wonder how realistic that is? 

[1234snow]

That looks great too but I just wonder how realistic that is?

I would strongly take it with a grain of salt at this point with regards to the final map I posted. We will see some wild swings I'm sure.

[Carvers Gap]

Per DT in the MA forum...big differences between the gfs and gefs.  How much energy goes west of the Apps?  Almost all models have it in varying strengths.  But see what happens if it consolidates to our SE?

 

[John1122]

I'd think the primary would be transferring to the coast around or before then if it behaves like almost any system ever. I can scarely recall a wound up low tracking right across the spine of the apps.

[lugnuts]

I know your area well, grew up coming to a church in Cottontown and that's where my late mother grew up and a great uncle lived.  You don't have the elevation of Portand, but being away from the city of Nashville and north of Gallatin can't hurt you in a situation like this.  

 

Snowfall will still depend on where the phase occurs.   Looks at this point to be a very dynamic system so wherever the primary low goes will likely have a heavy snow band to it's northwest that slowly decays as the transfer takes place.  Whether it's someone in TN or KY that sees this snow band is still largely up in the air.  Of course we are still 4 days away too, so A LOT can still change (for better or worse)

So if the primary low tracks a little more to the South East with phasing not as early would the heavier band set up more to the South East?

[tnweathernut]

So if the primary low tracks a little more to the South East with phasing not as early would the heavier band set up more to the South East?

Yes, I believe you'd shift virtually everything to the south and east.  There are still BIG questions to answer as it relates to how much energy comes up west of the apps and where the phase actually occurs.  These will have BIG impacts on possible snowfall for many Tennesseans.

[Olhausen]

Great, yea, small world.

 

Yes, when I was saying elevation, I was saying in reference to Nashville. Portland, White House, Springfield, Cross Plains, Ridgetop are all on the Highland Rim, sometimes that little bit of elevation is all it takes, seen it many times before in my 45 years.

I live in White House for 8 years now and can't tell you how right you are. We almost always get more snow then even Hendersonville or Gallatin and especially Nashville. I remember times were we have had 3-4 inches and I drove literally 20 minutes to Hendersonville and they had a dusting. Only time Nashville gets more is if the storm track is south and we don't see much precip.

[lugnuts]

Yes, I believe you'd shift virtually everything to the south and east.  There are still BIG questions to answer as it relates to how much energy comes up west of the apps and where the phase actually occurs.  These will have BIG impacts on possible snowfall for many Tennesseans.

Thxs..Hopefully things will come together and by tomorrow Tenn. will see what the models are showing for DC or half..lol

[John1122]

All 22 of the GFS ensemble individual members have snowfall for basically the entire valley of at least 1-3 inches. Most have much more than that.

[Runman292]

I'm not liking the 12z Euro run for Knoxville on Friday.

[Vol4Life]

Long time lurker, seldom poster. Love and anxiously awaiting some winter weather. Runman..what do you not like about the Euro 12Z? Over in the Southeastern forum they are going nuts saying it was a weenie run. I don't have access to the model runs/maps. Can you give a quick summary of the run?

[John1122]

Yep, the Euro is not good for any of us. We'll just have to see how it unfolds, it's been losing to the GFS lately and it's on it's own.

[Runman292]

Long time lurker, seldom poster. Love and anxiously awaiting some winter weather. Runman..what do you not like about the Euro 12Z? Over in the Southeastern forum they are going nuts saying it was a weenie run. I don't have access to the model runs/maps. Can you give a quick summary of the run?

1. The Euro run showed about an inch for Knoxville on Friday.

2. The Southeast forum talks little to nothing about East TN or Tennessee in general.

[John1122]

Long time lurker, seldom poster. Love and anxiously awaiting some winter weather. Runman..what do you not like about the Euro 12Z? Over in the Southeastern forum they are going nuts saying it was a weenie run. I don't have access to the model runs/maps. Can you give a quick summary of the run?

Euro is very warm, shoots the 540 line into Northern Kentucky on this side of the mountains, we get rain with temps in the 30s and low 40s. It's not got any support from other models and was 500 miles too far south at this range with the last storm, so we'll see where it goes over the coming week.

[Vol4Life]

Thanks for the info guys! Did it still show a Miller B scenario?

[John1122]

Thanks for the info guys! Did it still show a Miller B scenario?

 

Yes, it's biggest difference to me is that it shows a weaker storm moving across our area and it doesn't produce the very heavy back side snows that the other models are showing.

 

The GFS at hour 96 has a 1000mb low sitting over Lawrenceburg/Northern Alabama. At the same hour the Euro has a 1006 sitting over Nashville.  

 

The placement of the H is also different. The GFS has it over Ohio and the Euro has it over West Virginia, This effects where the cold air transport happens. The West Virginia high sends all the cold east of the Apps, That's why North Carolina and points north did so well.

[Carvers Gap]

At this point, I want to encourage everyone to look at the position of the low when looking at models and not the clown maps.  The 12z Euro secondary(edit) is in a good spot.  Energy transfers earlier and to the south and east of 0z.  The main reason that much of the eastern valley gets little snow is the qpf is low.  Might be downsloping.  That is not a bad run at all IMO and is actually a major improvement for the operational.  Most major EC storms like to send something up west of the Apps. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro just bombs out over Hatteras.   As this gets closer to the coast, we will get much better data and some swings are still possible and likely for the Valley areas.  The low position is actually pretty consistent, globally speaking.  But there have been big differences in the operationals and ensembles.