HKY_WX Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The parent high is still sliding in. So the CAD will not really become established until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 The GFS is looking good so far. Not backing down to the NAM. Another crush job for N/W NC. umm.. nope not one bit. If anything, a bit colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The GFS is looking good so far. Not backing down to the NAM. Another crush job for N/W NC. looks good to me too. nam is all alone re: temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Its funny, the surface features are better located (more south) on NAM, RGEM and now GFS, but the sensible weather seems to have gone the other way. 2m freezing line covered all of Cleveland, Gaston, Mecklenburg counties at 12 hours of 18z GFS, now at 6 hours of 0z run, they are all above freezing. Could easily change later in the run, but all three 0z runs have been varying degrees warmer at surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Also it has moved SE over the last four hours as shown trends/forecast found on the page. The 500 has a closed contour way down in northwest LA currently. Wonder how that verifies with past model runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Don't know about y'all...but I'm sittin' at 25. Cold air is coming in with a nice northerly breeze. Calm down, it's on it's way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 umm.. nope not one bit. If anything, a bit colder shows snow in northern wake cty thru hr18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I'm in the upstate and have a NE wind that's now picking up to 10mph, been around 5mph for a while. So not gonna be long till CAD starts moving on in. I'm thinking maybe around 4am or so. What does CAD mean? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Gps only painting 24 to 30 inches in Rabun county and around highlands lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 depends on the model I guess. Runs together but I know one showed it touching this low. Maybe someone else could chime in. The 500 has a closed contour way down in northwest LA currently. Wonder how that verifies with past model runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Gfs is a snow lovers dream in NC. What a clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Gps only painting 24 to 30 inches in Rabun county and around highlands loljust saw that, don't know if it's believable. If it's correct I'll be headed up there. I have noticed the models trending towards higlands, cashiers, toxaway as the area to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Gps only painting 24 to 30 inches in Rabun county and around highlands lol Damn. My gps just gives directions. Lookout....after you're done laughing, you can delete this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 0z GFS, yowza Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 What does CAD mean? Thanks Cold air damming, also its best to ask these type questions in the banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Is it just me or is the GFS showing more backside snow than the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 0z GFS, yowza What in god's name is that bullseye over burrel's house? There is no way that could verify. I mean right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Gps only painting 24 to 30 inches in Rabun county and around highlands lol Now we get to see how all that rain you've been getting pays off for you Heck, I've gone from being on the outside looking in to maybe more than a dusting. Got to love cad for frozen water in Ga. It pays off in so many ways Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Is it just me or is the GFS showing more backside snow than the NAM? alot of it, snowing at rdu thru hr 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Current GFS run is a big time hit for most of NC. In this following panel, I would be very close to the point where the bright yellow, deep blue and dark pink meet. That will be interesting if it verifys. I'll give a report if I still have any power or connectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Listening to radio show, they are lol about the GFS toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 0z GFS, yowza good grief I don't even know the color key that far in lol..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Listening to radio show, they are lol about the GFS toss it Have they explained why they are lol about the GFS as opposed to lol about the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Listening to radio show, they are lol about the GFS toss it Until the Euro comes along and shows a similar solution. Then what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Until the Euro comes along and shows a similar solution. Then what? cad, i guess we have to go with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Have they explained why they are lol about the GFS as opposed to lol about the NAM? Yes why not lol at the Nam, that one seems to be having problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC1037 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATIONACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLYMOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY WITH DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING BACKOVER THE REGION IN ITS WAKE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS OF 1015 PM...PRECIP IS OVERSPREADING THE AREA QUICKLY LATE THISEVENING. ATTM...PRECIP IS FALLING WITHIN THE RELATIVE HIGH WET BULBAIR...THUS RAIN IS THE ONLY P-TYPE THAT IS FALLING. HOWEVER...THEREIS A PRONOUNCED THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECASTAREA...WITH QUITE DRIER AND COOLER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE NW NCPIEDMONT...WHERE WET BULB TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 20S.THEREFORE...WINTRY PRECIP...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SLEET...WILLBECOME MORE COMMON AS IT SPREADS NORTHEAST. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUEDITS TREND OF BECOMING LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PUSHING THE COOL/DRY AIRSOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE NOSE OF BARRIER JETDEVELOPING AS A RESULT OF HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING. THIS IS SOMEWHATDISCONCERTING CONCERNING THE FATE OF THE FORECAST...AS THE NAMSSURFACE THERMO PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERNTIER OF WARNED ZONES ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA WOULD SEEMAINLY A COLD RAIN...AND CONVENTIONAL WISDOM DICTATES THAT THE NAM/SHIGHER RESOLUTION WILL DEPICT THE CAD MORE REALISTICALLY.NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL IN OTHER OBJECTIVEGUIDANCE...AND IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TO STAY THE COURSE WITH THECURRENT PRODUCTS.ONE AREA WHERE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ARE NOT GOING IN THE FORECAST/SFAVOR IS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS OF NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE THEAIR HAS ALREADY SATURATED...AND WET BULB TEMPS ARE IN THE MID-30S.THIS PROBABLY ISN/T GOING TO CHANGE MUCH OVERNIGHT...AND INFACT...THOSE AREAS...WHICH ARE USUALLY SHELTERED FROM THE EFFECTS OFCAD...MAY WELL BEGIN TO WARM TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE WARM ADVECTIONINCREASES. AGAIN...WITH PRECIP JUST NOW STARTING...IT WOULD BEINSANE TO MAKE RADICAL CHANGES TO THE WARNING PRODUCTS...BUT WOULDNOT BE SURPRISED IF LOCATIONS SUCH AS FRANKLIN...BRYSONCITY/CHEROKEE...AND ROBBINSVILLE SEE MOSTLY A COLD RAIN UNTIL FRIDAYEVENING. BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS...OVERNIGHT SNOW AND SLEET TOTALSWERE LOWERED A BIT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ALONG THEI-85 CORRIDOR...WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAKFROM THE GREENVILLE AREA EAST. 2 TO 4 STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE OVER THEI-40 CORRIDOR...AND GENERALLY 4 TO 6 ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH LOCALLYHIGHER AMOUNTS... EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WRN VALLEYS OF GRAHAM ANDSWAIN WHERE WARMER TEMPS MAY LINGER.FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE WRN CWFA BY LATE DAY. STRONGDEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES IN...ALONG WITH STRONG UPPERDIVERGENCE...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD STRONG DEEP LIFTING. A STRONG H85JET MOVES IN AS WELL...KEEPING STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW AND ISENTROPICLIFT OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A VERY WARM AND RELATIVELYDEEP WARM NOSE AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-85 CORRIDOR. THE WARM NOSE WILLLEAD TO A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN FOR THE I-85 CORRIDOR AND ERNPIEDMONT OF THE UPSTATE. THE NON-MOUNTAIN PORTION OF THE UPPERSAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY WILL BE TRICKY AS THEY WILL SEE WARMER TEMPSTHRU THE PERIOD. EVEN WITH THE STRONG BARRIER JET...THE WARM NOSEWILL AFFECT THESE AREAS STRONGLY...AND THE NEARBY LAKES WILL KEEPTHE SFC TEMPS WARMER. HOWEVER...AS THE H85 JET MOVES EAST...THE WARMNOSE WILL WEAKEN AND THE BARRIER JET WILL TAKE OVER BRINGING INCOOLER TEMPS...ALLOWING PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN. COULDSEE UP TO A HALF INCH...POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER...ALTHOUGH THAT WOULDBE APPROACHING THE PHYSICAL LIMIT...ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR AND ERNUPSTATE PIEDMONT. THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER LOCATIONS WILL BE ON THEBORDER OF A QUARTER INCH ACCUMS...BUT WILL ADD TO THE WARNING FORCONSISTENCY. THE LAKELANDS AND ELBERT COUNTY WILL NOT SEE MUCHICE...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE ENUF OF A MIX THAT AN ADVISORY ISWARRANTED.FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND THE MOUNTAINS AND NC FOOTHILLS...ADIFFERENT STORY DEVELOPS. THE WARM NOSE WILL BE NEARLY NON EXISTENTACROSS THE MTNS...BUT DOES MOVE INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND NWPIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN OVER THESE LOCATIONS...THE WARMNOSE IS NOT AS STRONG AS LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH. THEREFORE...THEYWILL SEE MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH A CHANGE TO OR MIX WITHSLEET FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT MTNS WILL SEEMOSTLY SNOW THROUGHOUT. THE TN BORDER AREAS WILL BE THE TRICKYLOCATIONS WHERE TEMPS COULD WARM FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COLD AND DRYBARRIER JET AND DEEPER COLD AIR. THIS MAY LIMIT ACCUMS IN THOSELOCATIONS. THAT SAID...THIS ENTIRE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN SOLIDLY INWARNING CRITERIA SNOW AND/OR SLEET. THE LOCATIONS NEAR THE TN BORDERCOULD SEE SOME MINIMAL ICE...WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH ACCRETIONSOUTH OF I-40 FROM CATAWBA EAST. AGAIN SNOW AND SLEET ARE THE BIGGERSTORY WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 4 INCHES IN SERN ROWAN COUNTY TO AFOOT OR MORE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 10 INCHESIN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NC FOOTHILLS DOWN ACROSS THE SC ANDNE GA MTNS AND INTO THE NC VALLEYS AWAY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE. LESSERAMOUNTS ARE LIKELY IN THE LOWER VALLEYS OF GRAHAM AND WRN SWAINCOUNTIES.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Have they explained why they are lol about the GFS as opposed to lol about the NAM? no, just the insane totals for DC unrealistic to them..... They want to see EURO to see if it has anything as crazy. They feel RGEM has a better handle on it. EDIT: I just caught last few minutes of it, they was talking about up there. never mentioned down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 good grief I don't even know the color key that far in lol..... That is showing enhancement due to lift in the foothills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47661-jan-22-23-east-coast-storm-discussion/?p=3903317 can we see this map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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