strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Returns already making it into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Brad P doing a live chat: https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1011247355614387 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 2:11 AM, strongwxnc said: Returns already making it into the area. Ground truth! It's raining! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 00z NAM looks about the same as the 18z run to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 2:21 AM, superjames1992 said: The 00z NAM looks about the same as the 18z run to me. It's definitely not the same. WNC gets 1/3 the amount of snow it showed on the 18Z and gives many mountain locations 0.25-0.40" of ice. That's a huge change. I can't quite figure it out yet, but seems the warm nose is much more robust and precip coverage (QPF) is a lot less too. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 2:23 AM, HurricaneTracker said: It's definitely not the same. WNC gets 1/3 the amount of snow it showed on the 18Z and gives many mountain locations 0.25-0.40" of ice. That's a huge change. I can't quite figure it out yet, but seems the warm nose is much more robust and precip coverage (QPF) is a lot less too. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Looks the same Qpf and snow output wise for the foothills and NW Piedmont CAD areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Do not like the 18Z NAM or the GSP update. Very little snow, lower precip totals, and a possible rain changeover (would be better than ZR) for the CLT metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 2:21 AM, superjames1992 said: The 00z NAM looks about the same as the 18z run to me. GSO kuchera method went from 6.6 to 2.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I think the warm nose is going to be very strong in this storm. I'd be prepared for major busts in NC. I mean, hell, I'm getting myself mentally prepared for the bust here in Atlanta. Not sure if the deform bands makes it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 2:23 AM, HurricaneTracker said: It's definitely not the same. WNC gets 1/3 the amount of snow it showed on the 18Z and gives many mountain locations 0.25-0.40" of ice. That's a huge change. I can't quite figure it out yet, but seems the warm nose is much more robust and precip coverage (QPF) is a lot less too. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The NAM could likely be on to something. We should not discount it at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 2:27 AM, packfan98 said: GSO kuchera method went from 6.6 to 2.0. Yeah, I see that 750-800 mb tourchy warm nose now shows up a bit earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 2:26 AM, SnowDeac said: Do not like the 18Z NAM or the GSP update. Very little snow, lower precip totals, and a possible rain changeover (would be better than ZR) for the CLT metro. Relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 2:31 AM, Queencitywx said: RelaxSo we toss the NAM and GSP 's thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 2:32 AM, mackerel_sky said: So we toss the NAM and GSP 's thoughts? Plus the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 2:32 AM, mackerel_sky said: So we toss the NAM and GSP 's thoughts? No, we call the event a bust six hours before it unfolds. You've been around here longer than most and ought to be ashamed for doing that. You know that is a cardinal sin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 It's one run, just like the one run last night that had everyone diving off the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 2:36 AM, Brick Tamland said: It's one run, just like the one run last night that had everyone diving off the cliff. HRRR isn't looking too hot either and that runs every hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 2:36 AM, LovingGulfLows said: HRRR isn't looking too hot either and that runs every hour or so. I'm not sure you should be trying to use the HRRR or RAP to forecast near the end of its run, though. Correct me if I'm wrong, mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I think the HRRR looks just fine for NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 hrrr doesnt look bad at all for upstate into nc, snow in rdu thru 11am. calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 2:35 AM, Queencitywx said: No, we call the event a bust six hours before it unfolds. You've been around here longer than most and ought to be ashamed for doing that. You know that is a cardinal sin.I'm sitting at my forecast high for today and it's raining! How is the temp going to plummet to freezing or below anytime soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I never use HRRR for temps. I always find it rly warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I hate short range models, they always find a way to screw us, right at game time............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 2:38 AM, Queencitywx said: I think the HRRR looks just fine for NC? It does, actually. Not sure what the freak out is about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Come on folks....take all of this cliff diving to banter before timeouts are issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 2:40 AM, BIG FROSTY said: I hate short range models, they always find a way to screw us, right at game time............... Right? I'm getting January 2014 vibes with this storm. I was forecasted by the mid-long range models to get a changeover to snow from sleet/ice, then the short range models started showing I would never change over, but like many here I held onto to hope that it was overestimating the temps. VERY disappointing day for me meanwhile 25 miles northeast got snow while I got stuck with ice and sleet. EDIT: I'm not trying to be a debbie downer....just saying...B E P R E P A R E D so you won't get disappointed like me on that faithful day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 2:40 AM, superjames1992 said: It does, actually. Not sure what the freak out is about.Between 2-4 am, has me switching to snow/ mix! Moisture feed is amazing over GSP ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The low in Mississippi on mesoanalysis is 3 mb weaker than what NAM is showing at this point, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 On 1/22/2016 at 2:43 AM, mackerel_sky said: Between 2-4 am, has me switching to snow/ mix! Moisture feed is amazing over GSP ! youll be fine, hrrr and rap look good for you thru morning. healthy precip and snow/sleet mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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