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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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  On 1/22/2016 at 2:21 AM, superjames1992 said:

The 00z NAM looks about the same as the 18z run to me.

It's definitely not the same. WNC gets 1/3 the amount of snow it showed on the 18Z and gives many mountain locations 0.25-0.40" of ice. That's a huge change. I can't quite figure it out yet, but seems the warm nose is much more robust and precip coverage (QPF) is a lot less too.

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  On 1/22/2016 at 2:23 AM, HurricaneTracker said:

It's definitely not the same. WNC gets 1/3 the amount of snow it showed on the 18Z and gives many mountain locations 0.25-0.40" of ice. That's a huge change. I can't quite figure it out yet, but seems the warm nose is much more robust and precip coverage (QPF) is a lot less too.

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Looks the same Qpf and snow output wise for the foothills and NW Piedmont CAD areas.

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  On 1/22/2016 at 2:23 AM, HurricaneTracker said:

It's definitely not the same. WNC gets 1/3 the amount of snow it showed on the 18Z and gives many mountain locations 0.25-0.40" of ice. That's a huge change. I can't quite figure it out yet, but seems the warm nose is much more robust and precip coverage (QPF) is a lot less too.

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The NAM could likely be on to something. We should not discount it at this range

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  On 1/22/2016 at 2:35 AM, Queencitywx said:

No, we call the event a bust six hours before it unfolds. You've been around here longer than most and ought to be ashamed for doing that. You know that is a cardinal sin.

I'm sitting at my forecast high for today and it's raining! How is the temp going to plummet to freezing or below anytime soon?
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  On 1/22/2016 at 2:40 AM, BIG FROSTY said:

I hate short range models, they always find a way to screw us, right at game time...............

 

 

Right? I'm getting January 2014 vibes with this storm. I was forecasted by the mid-long range models to get a changeover to snow from sleet/ice, then the short range models started showing I would never change over, but like many here I held onto to hope that it was overestimating the temps. VERY disappointing day for me meanwhile 25 miles northeast got snow while I got stuck with ice and sleet.

 

EDIT: I'm not trying to be a debbie downer....just saying...B E P R E P A R E D so you won't get disappointed like me on that faithful day.

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