knowledgeispwr Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Any chance that the strong thunderstorms rob our area of moisture and we see less amounts? Meteorologists seem to think it depends on the orientation of the thunderstorms. @eastwx tweeted: (1/2) Something to watch...storms near the Gulf. If they stay oriented NE-SW, that actually enhances the moisture feed into our area. (2/2) But if storms race well out ahead of the system, moisture inflow gets cut off, lowering precip amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yes. sometimes thunderstorms help make the storm stronger, note, super storm of 1993! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Raleigh Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Someone said the storms are in the wrong configuration to steal? Is that true? Queencitywx said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Someone said the storms are in the wrong configuration to steal? Is that true? Queencitywx said. yes , correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Any chance that the strong thunderstorms rob our area of moisture and we see less amounts? It is certainly possible. One of the many things that can get in the way of winter precip for us. However, at his time, the alignment of the storms is not such that it would rob gulf moisture. Not saying that convection won't become a problem. but currently, it is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Currently they look SE/NW but look to be moving quite fast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 sometimes thunderstorms help make the storm stronger, note, super storm of 1993! Alignment is key. proper alignment can enhance moisture feed from the gulf. improper alignment out in front of system can rob moisture and limit the feed north (convection). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You can see the wedge trying to get going on this 925 analysis. The stiffest wind is from the northwest, and I would think it would better for the CAD to have a north by northeast wind. Still though some measure of CAD is developing. My wind here in upstate is out of the NE now but only at 5mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Someone else posted Charlotte dewpoints were surprisingly low. I'm hoping that is the wedge showing up. High dewpoints in the upstate are concerning me. 44/34 here, that will not allow the upstate to wet bulb down. I'm looking for the wedge to change that. Needs to happen soon but NEGA and upstate are obviously last ones to get the cooling. Low level winds are going to increase to 20 to 30 knots right off the surface the next few hours so once it starts to move it should be quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 1008 low in between Jackson and Hattiesburg, MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You also don't want to see lines of thunderstorms oriented west to east. This usually occurs right along the Gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You also don't want to see lines of thunderstorms oriented west to east. This usually occurs right along the Gulf coast. what are you referencing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You also don't want to see lines of thunderstorms oriented west to east. This usually occurs right along the Gulf coast. Parallel to the coast, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Well I'm definitely seeing a line develop west-east right now near the FL panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I was almost exactly the same around 4:00 pm today and am currently sitting at 31.8/26, so the wedge is definitely building in. That also makes me wonder about what the HRRR and RAP are currently forecasting. Below is the composite reflectivity with precip type and 2m temps for 3 am tonight. I am right at the Mecklenburg and Union county borders and these show precip starting as rain, and temps around 34/35. Well I am already lower than that and my wet bulb is 29.5, so I dont see how this ends up being correct. RAP is nearly the same. And while the station closest to me is a little cooler than most, nearly all are 37 degrees or less. Excluding some of the big outliers in the 40's. So I would think even if that station was a couple degrees too cold, places at 37 would still be way below 34/35 at 3 am??? This is a perfect illustration of why the upstate (especially Western upstate and NEGA) struggle so much in these situations. Despite GSP and CLT being about the same temp today, CLT is now 10 degrees cooler and 10 degree lower dewpoint and the moisture has not even gotten there. Already raining here and still 44/33. I think GSP is going to have a really tough time getting down to freezing and by that time much of the precip will already have passed. I Yes, I know this is a long duration event but it is going to be a long process to get our temps down. Plus even if the good stuff falls it will have a hard time accumulating. Another reason the very conservative predictions make more sense for the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Raleigh Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 But it's not parallel to the coast. It's perpendicular. ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 what are you referencing?Whether thunderstorms rob moisture downstream. Lines of thunderstorms oriented east to west along the Gulf coast can lower precipitation totals further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 There is one perpendicular, but another one forming parallel near the panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Well I'm definitely seeing a line develop west-east right now near the FL panhandle Looking at the high res models and current radar, that west-east band should merge with the main band of storms going through LA and MS. I don't see any reason to think that's not going to happen. I think if anything that convection will enhance the initial band of precip that will move through NC Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 But it's not parallel to the coast. It's perpendicular. ???Correct, I was referencing another way thunderstorms can mess up a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You also don't want to see lines of thunderstorms oriented west to east. This usually occurs right along the Gulf coast. You mean SE to NW, you do want to see SW to NE Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This will end up as one to remember. Historic storm incoming for a lot of people! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You mean SE to NW, you do want to see SW to NE Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I suppose se to nw or e to w would be bad configurations. Sw to ne is good as long as the line doesn't race out ahead of the surface low. Either way it's still too early in the storm to tell whether this will be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepPounding Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 This is a perfect illustration of why the upstate (especially Western upstate and NEGA) struggle so much in these situations. Despite GSP and CLT being about the same temp today, CLT is now 10 degrees cooler and 10 degree lower dewpoint and the moisture has not even gotten there. Already raining here and still 44/33. I think GSP is going to have a really tough time getting down to freezing and by that time much of the precip will already have passed. I Yes, I know this is a long duration event but it is going to be a long process to get our temps down. Plus even if the good stuff falls it will have a hard time accumulating. Another reason the very conservative predictions make more sense for the upstate.Yea true, and you are pretty far west. The wedge will make it down to GSP but will definitely take longer. Looks like the high location and wind direction aren't in a great spot yet to really push it down to you. Do any mets have any input though on the temps the RAP and HRRR are showing for 3 am tonight compared to current temps since it seems like they are pretty far off? Posted the graphics earlier. Makes me think the wedge is stronger, at least at the surface. But I may be completely wrong. - Edit - Actually the map I was looking at for winds and the high didn't refresh for some reason. Winds and high location are much better in place compared to the one I was looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Little update from Brad P. : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Radar seems to be filling in better in the last hour. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 While I am not an expert, my experience and understanding is that the east-west aligned storms are most effective at robbing moisture when they consist of the majority of the moisture with the system. Right now, there is moisture all over the place. The storms along the gulf are not stationary or moving west to east, but are moving NNE. This is very consistent with the larger mass of rain to the west. This storm is loaded with moisture and it appears to all be headed NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nam looks warmer to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Well here is DT's first guess map.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NAM got a lot more mixing for us in AVL and most of WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.