Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If it's oriented Parallel to the main boundary then it should enhance upstream moisture. Gotcha. Could the convection play a roll in where the storm center forms/tracks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 18z NAVGEM is a flush hit, especially for the I-85 corridor on west. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=fnmoc_conus&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Something to keep in mind is the Warmer SST anomalies resultant from the Warmest December on record and of course the warm fall. This will certainly factor in as far as SLP strength, coastal front warmth (east winds/changeover to sleet/zr/rain), etc... This could potentially lead to more mixing, more dynamically driven snow/sleet/freezing, more icentropic lifting, thundersnow, wind, etc. Will be fun to watch the SLP strength tomorrow. Also if the below map is correct, i would favor the SLP on that SST boundary just offshore the carolinas. Some of the models have taken it right up the that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Thanks Phil! Always nice to see you stop by No problem. I always like to say hello from time to time with the southeast crew. Really these forums and threads were where I got a lot of my knowledge from back in high school and undergrad so its nice to return and see how all the mets and locals alike are doing Anyway to add a little bit of info from some of the latest higher resolution guidance: Things could ramp up fairly quickly tomorrow morning for those in WNC and upstate SC... where a lot of the high resolution guidance is suggesting a laterally translating band to develop across the area before 12z. This will probably precede a lot of the stronger WAA aloft, so this might be a chance for upstate SC to pick up a quick few inches of snow before things change over to sleet as the warm nose kicks in. Note how the 850-hPa frontogenesis is aligned from NW SC into the midlands of NC. That is providing the mesoscale forcing for ascent that will probably lead to high precipitation rates even early on in the event. URL: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_ncep_fgen_all_alb.php 850-hPa Frontogenesis from HRRR Corresponding 1km Reflectivity... strongest reflectively nicely corresponds to the intense frontogenesis band. 12z Sounding near KGSP... with only a weak warm nose, it may be just cold enough for wet snow around this time: Afterwards though... the majority of the snowfall will probably be confined to the WNC mountains and nearby foothills... that warm nose is going to come in quite quickly behind this initial band, and there is pretty high confidence things will change over to sleet/freezing rain in upstate SC. By 17z things should be all sleet/freezing rain at KGSP per the 3km NCAR ensemble... note the clear 4-6C warm nose by all of the ensemble members around 850-hPa. URL: http://www.image.ucar.edu/wrfdart/ensemble/sounding.php?d=2016012100 (choose location near KGSP) The hardest to predict area will be between WNC mountains and Raleigh... where the warm nose will be battling the strongest CAD induced cooling. That early morning band could prove to be quite important, as if things can dynamically cool quickly from higher precipitation rates, it may allow locations further east to stay snow for a little longer before things switch over. There is high uncertainty on how far west the warm nose gets in NC... as exhibited by high temp uncertainty near KGSO into Friday evening. That is crazy uncertainty from NCAR between ensemble members that don't have a warm nose > 0C at 850hPa, all the way to several that have warm noses getting up to 6-7C at 850hPa. This is where the battleground is set for tomorrow, and where the snow/sleet line will continue to oscillate back and forth as precipitation rates wax and wane. Folks south and east of KGSO probably will have a significant to majority period of sleet/freezing rain occurring, while locations further north and west of KGSO will likely have a longer period of snow. Anyway... probably enough discussion for now. Let's see how everything unfolds shall we Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 You can get burned by the RAP but there's a trend with upstream ridging lessening and the trough axis more positive. That's a sign the primary won't be lifting north as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You can get burned by the RAP but there's a trend with upstream ridging lessening and the trough axis more positive. That's a sign the primary won't be lifting north as much. Interesting. Thanks for that. Current location of the primary is low, nearly to the GoM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pyro4Life Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Interesting. Thanks for that. Current location of the primary is low, nearly to the GoM! Where is the Low supposed to be now according to the different models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 The 12z Parallel Euro is out. It looks almost identical to the operational Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Where is the Low supposed to be now according to the different models? It's on target Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 latest HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Where is the Low supposed to be now according to the different models? Looks a tad south of the GFS, which had it north of the LA/MS border: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
27596WXNUT Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 wow, 18z gfs looks ridic for a lot of us... rdu: CLT: GSO: Doppler how much do you really buy into these?? Just curious if they should be taken with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Doppler how much do you really buy into these?? Just curious if they should be taken with a grain of salt. no way we get 1.6" qpf as snow, but it shows the possibility (albeit small) that we can get a good initial thumping of snow. 3-5" seems about right basd on the latest model trends. hrrr and rap have us waking up to heavy snow that will accumulate quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 no way we get 1.6" qpf as snow, but it shows the possibility (albeit small) that we can get a good initial thumping of snow. 3-5" seems about right basd on the latest model trends. hrrr and rap have us waking up to heavy snow that will accumulate quickly. The 18z GFS COBB output showed 5.9" SN for RDU, plus sleet, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Kirk Mellish with wsbradio calling for around an inch for NE burbs. I'm not holding my breath, I think we're just on the wrong side of this tight gradient. Still fun to watch the panic though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 18z GEFS from dt facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 dewpoint at 23 currently. Someone else posted Charlotte dewpoints were surprisingly low. I'm hoping that is the wedge showing up. High dewpoints in the upstate are concerning me. 44/34 here, that will not allow the upstate to wet bulb down. I'm looking for the wedge to change that. Needs to happen soon but NEGA and upstate are obviously last ones to get the cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Current dewpts around CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Still new to some of this is that a good thing or bad thing for us here in NC? good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Kirk Mellish with wsbradio calling for around an inch for NE burbs. I'm not holding my breath, I think we're just on the wrong side of this tight gradient. Still fun to watch the panic though! Yeah, I'm not liking the shift slighty north and less organized of th 500mb LP. We should score a flizzard I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 18z GEFS from dt facebook image.png This is actually the "High-Resolution GEFS." DT has been posting it for a while, and it's been holding very steady with snowfall accumulation amounts for a while now, though it has shifted south slightly. All of that isn't snow by a long shot, but that's still a lot of snow/sleet/freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 18z GEFS from dt facebook N of I-85 looks to be mostly snow with sleet mixing in on either side of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 You can see the wedge trying to get going on this 925 analysis. The stiffest wind is from the northwest, and I would think it would better for the CAD to have a north by northeast wind. Still though some measure of CAD is developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Well I still stick to my prediction of seeing some snow here in the ILM area during this storm and all the way down the SC coast as well. I do not see a whole bunch but a dusting to an inch for most. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pyro4Life Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I always find this real-time lightning map fascinating. It will be interesting to see how far north the storms can get. http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepPounding Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Someone else posted Charlotte dewpoints were surprisingly low. I'm hoping that is the wedge showing up. High dewpoints in the upstate are concerning me. 44/34 here, that will not allow the upstate to wet bulb down. I'm looking for the wedge to change that. Needs to happen soon but NEGA and upstate are obviously last ones to get the cooling. I was almost exactly the same around 4:00 pm today and am currently sitting at 31.8/26, so the wedge is definitely building in. That also makes me wonder about what the HRRR and RAP are currently forecasting. Below is the composite reflectivity with precip type and 2m temps for 3 am tonight. I am right at the Mecklenburg and Union county borders and these show precip starting as rain, and temps around 34/35. Well I am already lower than that and my wet bulb is 29.5, so I dont see how this ends up being correct. RAP is nearly the same. And while the station closest to me is a little cooler than most, nearly all are 37 degrees or less. Excluding some of the big outliers in the 40's. So I would think even if that station was a couple degrees too cold, places at 37 would still be way below 34/35 at 3 am??? Temps Precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Strong thunderstorms have been holding the LP a tad tad south for a few hours. But you can see the bars bending up into TN so it will jump north soon but any bit helps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Any chance that the strong thunderstorms rob our area of moisture and we see less amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Any chance that the strong thunderstorms rob our area of moisture and we see less amounts? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Yes. Not necessarily, go back a page or two and it's explained. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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