phil882 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hey guys! Long time no see for a lot of you (from an old Greenville, SC resident and UNCA alum), I thought I'd let you guys know that I shifted my HRRR graphical output to KCLT so I could see how the higher resolution guidance performs for the incoming winter storm! I did this a few times last year when there was significant winter weather. URL: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#flt These graphics should update hourly with 15 minute time step 2m temps, 10m winds, 1km reflectivity, and IR brightness temperature. And there is an looper that puts all the variables together so you can easily toggle back and forth. In addition, I've also created a frontogenesis diagnostic graphic which could be especially useful to figure out where the strongest banding occurs as the heavier precip moves in. You can look at 925, 850, 700 frontogenesis or look at them all together with reflectivity. Temperature contours are also overlaid. These miller-B events with significant CAD always got me excited to track, and as usual, the cold air damming signature has only become more impressive from run to run over the last 2-3 days. This certainly looks to be a major storm for SC upstate and WNC mountains to midlands. Sad I won't get to join the fun with all of you being too far north, but will be happy to live vicariously through you all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Latest Maps From WPC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 KGSO is really on the boarder at this point even looking at the sounding. Warm nose would instantly push temps >0. Well see how this evolves. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 1 and only call for my NC friends. Honestly haven't had a chance to look at much in GA/SC other than there will be crippling ice in that transition area south of Charlotte and then up into southeastern NC. Snow/sleet totals Asheville 10 - 14 Boone 18-24 inches Hickory 10 - 14 Greensboro 8-12 Charlotte 3 - 5 Raleigh 3-6 ZR totals Greensboro - trace Charlotte - .25 more south of town Raleigh .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Myrtle Beach says hi A chance you get some backend! Look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here is the wind map that has been posted before http://hint.fm/wind/ I hope we can start building the CAD soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Myrtle Beach says hi Read the Storm Mode thread. One more post like that in here and I will say, bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Well, it's my first real major winter storm since leaving N.C. 2 winters ago. It has been a pleasure tracking it with all of you. Given my unbiased perch, I've tried to temper expectation and "keep it real" this week. But, alas, there is no fighting it -- all of my peeps in the I-85/U.S. 74 corridor are going to get clobbered. I like CLT to GSP for 4-6 with .25 of ice. I like Shelby and Rutherford (keep it strong, strongwx!) for 6-12 with some ice in Shelby, but just sleet in Rutherfordton. And I like QueenCityWx and HKYWx to rake with 12-16. Best of luck to all - I am insanely jealous. Don't forget to create your own transition zone from tracking OBS virtually, to recording them in person! If I have a regret from my snow tracking it's that I didn't spend enough time outside before and during. I hope everyone else busts with even higher totals. GOOD LUCK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I apologize if this is banter but at what point should we worry about power outages? If we get .25 I'm assuming that's ok but once you reach .50 it's not good. Is there a map of the horrible ice storm we had in 2002 in Central NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hey guys! Long time no see for a lot of you (from an old Greenville, SC resident and UNCA alum), I thought I'd let you guys know that I shifted my HRRR graphical output to KCLT so I could see how the higher resolution guidance performs for the incoming winter storm! I did this a few times last year when there was significant winter weather. URL: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#flt These graphics should update hourly with 15 minute time step 2m temps, 10m winds, 1km reflectivity, and IR brightness temperature. And there is an looper that puts all the variables together so you can easily toggle back and forth. In addition, I've also created a frontogenesis diagnostic graphic which could be especially useful to figure out where the strongest banding occurs as the heavier precip moves in. You can look at 925, 850, 700 frontogenesis or look at them all together with reflectivity. Temperature contours are also overlaid. These miller-B events with significant CAD always got me excited to track, and as usual, the cold air damming signature has only become more impressive from run to run over the last 2-3 days. This certainly looks to be a major storm for SC upstate and WNC mountains to midlands. Sad I won't get to join the fun with all of you being too far north, but will be happy to live vicariously through you all Thanks Phil! Always nice to see you stop by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I apologize if this is banter but at what point should we worry about power outages? If we get .25 I'm assuming that's ok but once you reach .50 it's not good. Is there a map of the horrible ice storm we had in 2002 in Central NC? It depends a great deal on the amount of wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 OK, here is the latest 18z RGEM which is more important at this point than the GFS due to the mixing issues. It shows up to 4 inches of sleet for some areas! Here's the breakdown: SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION SLEET! AND THE DREADED FREEZING RAIN!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Thanks Phil. Still got them booked marked from last year! Hey guys! Long time no see for a lot of you (from an old Greenville, SC resident and UNCA alum), I thought I'd let you guys know that I shifted my HRRR graphical output to KCLT so I could see how the higher resolution guidance performs for the incoming winter storm! I did this a few times last year when there was significant winter weather. These miller-B events with significant CAD always got me excited to track, and as usual, the cold air damming signature has only become more impressive from run to run over the last 2-3 days. This certainly looks to be a major storm for SC upstate and WNC mountains to midlands. Sad I won't get to join the fun with all of you being too far north, but will be happy to live vicariously through you all Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooter Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Storm looks good and the last frame looks like the gulf is being tapped. Saw on the mid-atlantic thread that the gfs & euro were pretty close to where it is located now. I'm sure someone with more knowledge on here can give a better analysis! http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 wow, 18z gfs looks ridic for a lot of us... rdu: CLT: GSO: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Temps are free falling here. After a high of 46 we are already down to 38. Good signs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just went <0 to 31 in Martinsville, VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 wow, 18z gfs looks ridic for a lot of us... rdu: CLT: GSO: Interesting that at RDU it shows no sleet at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The convection in the northern gulf perpendicular of the main band convection moving through LA is a little concerning. Could rob some upstream moisture. Need that convection to merge with the main line of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 dewpoint at 23 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Noticing an interesting retrograde or westward elongation to the slp after it gets up around Norfolk on latest modeling. This will increase the backside snow for the northern part of NC. I'm using Shawn's excellent ani gif to show this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The convection in the northern gulf perpendicular of the main band convection moving through LA is a little concerning. Could rob some upstream moisture. Need that convection to merge with the main line of storms.There's a thing where the convection races ahead and kills the moisture flux. And then there's another version where it's slow moving and actually enhances it. Not sure which this one is, if either.But I agree, we should stick a pin in it. It's certainly one of the many ways big SE winter storms head to the graveyard early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 COBB output for GSO from the 18z GFS just came out. This needs to be posted for posterity: StnID: kgso Profile Thermal Adjust: 0.0 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Average Hourly Sounding: NO Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L% ============================================================================================================================ 160121/2100Z 3 04003KT 39.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 160122/0000Z 6 07004KT 27.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 160122/0300Z 9 08005KT 25.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 160122/0600Z 12 09004KT 26.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 160122/0900Z 15 08006KT 26.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 160122/1200Z 18 05009KT 22.2F SNOW 14:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.196 14:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0 160122/1500Z 21 06008KT 22.2F SNOW 9:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.343 11:1| 5.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54 100| 0| 0 160122/1800Z 24 05010KT 23.4F SNOW 8:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.281 10:1| 8.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.82 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 160122/2100Z 27 06016KT 23.8F SNOW 11:1| 4.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.426 10:1| 13.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.25 100| 0| 0 160123/0000Z 30 36010KT 26.7F SNOW 10:1| 6.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.644 10:1| 19.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.89 100| 0| 0 160123/0300Z 33 04016KT 26.0F ZLSG 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.21|| 0.201 10:1| 19.5|| 0.00|| 0.21|| 2.09 0| 12| 88 160123/0600Z 36 02009KT 25.4F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.025 10:1| 19.5|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 2.12 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 160123/0900Z 39 03014KT 27.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023 10:1| 19.7|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 2.14 100| 0| 0 160123/1200Z 42 36010KT 28.8F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 10:1| 19.9|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 2.16 100| 0| 0 160123/1500Z 45 35010KT 30.5F SNOW 13:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 10:1| 20.3|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 2.19 100| 0| 0 160123/1800Z 48 33009KT 32.1F SNOW 7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.049 10:1| 20.6|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 2.24 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 160123/2100Z 51 32010KT 32.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 10:1| 20.6|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 2.25 88| 0| 12 160124/0000Z 54 33010KT 29.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 10:1| 20.6|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 2.25 0| 0| 0 160124/0300Z 57 33012KT 29.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 10:1| 20.6|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 2.25 0| 0| 0 160124/0600Z 60 33010KT 27.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 dewpoint at 23 currently. Mine's at 19 and surface has just dipped below freezing as well. Great setup so far. The CAD should begin to really get established over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Really nice temp drop at the house. Skies are still mostly clear and I'm down to 30.1, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 1008 low a little northwest of Baton Rouge,LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 There's a thing where the convection races ahead and kills the moisture flux. And then there's another version where it's slow moving and actually enhances it. Not sure which this one is, if either. But I agree, we should stick a pin in it. It's certainly one of the many ways big SE winter storms head to the graveyard early. If it's oriented Parallel to the main boundary then it should enhance upstream moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 One thing that has snuck up on me is how cold the GFS is depicting surface temps -- now showing 24.6F at 15z Friday for Shelby, which is during the height of the precip. Thankfully it's a snow sounding -- that cold with freezing rain would be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 There's a thing where the convection races ahead and kills the moisture flux. And then there's another version where it's slow moving and actually enhances it. Not sure which this one is, if either. But I agree, we should stick a pin in it. It's certainly one of the many ways big SE winter storms head to the graveyard early. We want the convection to line up SW to NE that way it acts as a conveyer belt to transport moisture in. If he lines up west to east we are boned as it will Rob our precious qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 wow. 28 now an hour north of GSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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