griteater Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If there is no source for sustained cold air advection, then the latent heat of freezing associated with freezing rain will gradually increase temperatures to the freezing point. Once temperatures reach 32 degrees, ice no longer accumulates. NWS Correct, but in this case there is a source for sustained cold air advection via NE winds...I didn't really get that portion of the GSP discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA340 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...SEVERAL CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FIRST IS SHIFT INOVERNIGHT AND 12Z GUIDANCE TO TAKE H7 LOW A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHACROSS NORTH GA /PARTICULARLY GFS...UKMET AND SREF/...AS WELL ASSTRENGTHEN WEDGE AND BUILDING SFC PRESSURE INTO NE GA WHILESTRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION BRINGS OVERRUNNING PRECIP. BASED ONLOCAL WRF AND HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATE SNOW AND FRZAPTYPES WE ADJUSTED FCST THIS MORNING TO INDICATE INCREASE SNOWAMOUNTS. IF LIQUID EQUIV PRECIP COULD BE CONVERTED TO ALL SNOW ANDNO RAIN/FZRA/SLEET...COULD SEE UP TO 12 INCHES SNOW IN HIGHERELEVATIONS BY 12Z SAT. BLENDED THIS GUIDANCE WITH LOWER SNOWRATIOS AND WPC SNOW GUIDANCE AND FINALLY COLLAB WITH SURROUNDINGOFFICES TO OBTAIN FINAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS. WRAPAROUNDSNOW AS UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST OF AREA COULD BRING ANOTHER 1/2 TO 2INCHES OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF CARROLLTON TO LEXINGTON LINE.OTHER CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN AND CREEK/RIVER FLOODING. WITH STRONGOVERRUNNING...MODELS AND WPC GUIDANCE CONTINUING TREND TOINCREASE QPF. TOTAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2.5 INCHES LIKELY WHICH SHOULDBE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING. FLASH FLOODINGUNLIKELY UNLESS STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPS.STRONG WINDS IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING SFC LOW TO THE WEST SHOULD BEENOUGH TO GET SFC WINDS TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COULD BE EVENGREATER CONCERN IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE HEAVY RAIN ANDPOTENTIAL ICING AND SNOW COULD BRING DOWN TREES AND POWERLINES. FINAL CONCERN IS THREAT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION OVER MIDDLE GA. SPCDAY 2 OUTLOOK UPGRADED TO SLT RISK. A LITTLE CONCERNED THATINSTABILITY WILL BE INSUFFICIENT OR TOO ELEVATED TO SEE MUCH WINDOR OTHER IMPACTS. WITH STRONG 0-1KM BULK SHEAR...ISOLD TORNADOTHREAT W QLCS POSSIBLE BUT NOT AGAIN INSTABILITY AND A LITTLE MOREWARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS NEEDED TO REDUCE CIN. IF CLOUDS BREAKAND TEMPS GET INTO 60S...THIS COULD OCCUR BUT MAY AT THE SAME TIMEREDUCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR.SNELSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18z continues with the WNC crush job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 wow, GFS much colder at 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 New Totals From GSP For Most Areas All Snow Totals Increased By Alot: Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC344 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016...MAJOR WINTER STORM EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY....A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...ANDFREEZING RAIN BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGHFRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELYACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS...WHILE HEAVY SNOWIS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH CAROLINAFOOTHILLS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SOUTHOF INTERSTATE 85 ACROSS THE LAKELANDS REGION.NCZ035-502-504-506-508-510-220400-/O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0002.160122T0500Z-160124T0000Z/ALEXANDER-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHLEHEM...TAYLORSVILLE...STONY POINT...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...FOREST CITY...RUTHERFORDTON...COLUMBUS344 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHTTO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...* LOCATIONS...THE FOOTHILLS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.* HAZARDS...A SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL START LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.* TIMING...THE WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO FALL AS SNOW AND SLEET THIS EVENING...THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS FRIDAY. MODERATE SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SLEET MAY BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MIXING WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW FRIDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO SATURDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 18 INCHES...ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATION COULD MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AND COULD COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO RESULT IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHERCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOWARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN ANEMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OFWEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILSCAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.&&$$ Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC344 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016...MAJOR WINTER STORM EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY....A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...ANDFREEZING RAIN BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGHFRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELYACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS...WHILE HEAVY SNOWIS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH CAROLINAFOOTHILLS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SOUTHOF INTERSTATE 85 ACROSS THE LAKELANDS REGION.GAZ010-017-018-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ001>009-013-014-220400-/O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0002.160122T0500Z-160124T0000Z/RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-CHESTER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...PINE MOUNTAIN...MOUNTAIN CITY...CORNELIA...DEMOREST...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...STATESVILLE...MOORESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...NEWTON...ST. STEPHENS...SALISBURY...SHELBY...KINGS MOUNTAIN...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CONCORD...KANNAPOLIS...MONROE...TRINITY...INDIAN TRAIL...WEDDINGTON...WALHALLA...WESTMINSTER...PUMPKINTOWN...TIGERVILLE...GOWENSVILLE...CAESARS HEAD...CLEVELAND...MARIETTA...SENECA...EASLEY...CLEMSON...TAYLORS...GREER...MAULDIN...SIMPSONVILLE...BEREA...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...UNION...CHESTER...GREAT FALLS344 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHTTO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...* LOCATIONS...THE PIEDMONT OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS INCLUDES THE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG AREA AS WELL AS CHARLOTTE METRO.* HAZARDS...A SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL START TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA IS LIKELY.* TIMING...THE WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 10 INCHES...ALONG WITH AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF ICE. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION COULD MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AND COULD COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREE LIMBS.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSOPOSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OFWEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILSCAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.&&$$ Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC344 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016...MAJOR WINTER STORM EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY....A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...ANDFREEZING RAIN BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGHFRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELYACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS...WHILE HEAVY SNOWIS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH CAROLINAFOOTHILLS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SOUTHOF INTERSTATE 85 ACROSS THE LAKELANDS REGION.NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-220400-/O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0002.160122T0000Z-160124T1200Z/AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...HOT SPRINGS...BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...LAKE JUNALUSKA...ROBBINSVILLE...CULLOWHEE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...HIGHLANDS...CASHIERS...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER...EAST FLAT ROCK...ETOWAH...JONAS RIDGE...OLD FORT...LAKE LURE...SALUDA344 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENINGTO 7 AM EST SUNDAY...* LOCATIONS...THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.* HAZARDS...A ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.* TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...LIKELY BEGINNING AS RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW. SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES ON FRIDAY...AND MAY EVEN CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WHILE 12 TO 24 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. PERIODS OF SLEET OR RAIN MAY RESULT IN SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER TOTALS ACROSS THE LITTLE TENNESSEE VALLEY. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW COULD MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION AND GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHERCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOWARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN ANEMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OFWEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILSCAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.&&$$ Good to see all these snow totals jumping up like this in some cases 6-9+ inches I went from 10-15 inches to 8-18 inches CLT went to 2-10 inches Mountains went to 12-24 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 and at 24... that 0 line just keeps moving south bit by bit every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 fishel shows ens. give rdu a 70% chance at >4" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 wow, GFS much colder at 21 you've been saying that every run for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 wow, GFS much colder at 21 Keeps freezing line and 850 line just south of CLT metro through 27. Break out the giant snow shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 and at 27.. the -3 line near me (north of CLT). What a great trend. RDU looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 and at 30.. the -6 line is now in NC. Beautiful. Reminds me of the last minute trends on the Feb '04 storm. Just kept getting colder and colder on each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 PSA: Please stop posting your local AFDs and warnings in their entirety. Most (all?) of us just scroll past that wall of text. Clip the part you find interesting, or better yet, paraphrase it and provide a hyperlink to the NWS page. We all know where to find these things if we want to read them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That's be 1.75 QPF of all frozen liquid. Incredible only 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This is quickly becoming epic for everybody involved. GSP think Asheville record of 18.2" of snow from 1993 Storm of the Century might fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 wxbell maps look like sleet from clt to rdu @24hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 wxbell maps look like sleet from clt to rdu @24hr It's trended from 3 inches of ZR to now major sleet...in one more run it'll be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's trended from 3 inches of ZR to now major sleet...in one more run it'll be all snow. great trends, rdu is literally like 15 miles from heavy snow thru hr 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Southside VA gets smoked this run, if no mixing 15+ easy.. Heavy band pivots over tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 and at 30.. the -6 line is now in NC. Beautiful. Reminds me of the last minute trends on the Feb '04 storm. Just kept getting colder and colder on each run. No you just did not. Hopefully the NAM is overdoing the warm nose. Seems like NWS is weighting it heavily in my forecast though. Seems like the GFS and the RGEM may be closer to reality I hope. Is this a BOOM run burger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 midlands of sc crushed with frz rain this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Pretty big QPF increase too: 12z: 18z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 No you just did not. Hopefully the NAM is overdoing the warm nose. Seems like NWS is weighting it heavily in my forecast though. Seems like the GFS and the RGEM may be closer to reality I hope. Is this a BOOM run burger? I'm finding it harder and harder to believe that Charlotte doesn't escape 6+ inches. It was a BOOM run for the last 10 runs in a row of practically every model except the NAM lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If the warm nose becomes shallower by the SLP being further south, there should be more sleet than zr for most. Certainly a good trend for central NC. There also appears that a dry slot (sorry) loosely coincides with the warmer temps also reducing the accrual of zr. Then we see whats left on the wrap around and ull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 HRRR has .5 QPF of snow for CLT...so yea think they end up with a good number at the end of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 New Special Weather Statement just issued for RAH area... 452 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAYINTO SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MAJOR WINTER STORMTO IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND POTENTIALLYCRIPPLING ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINAPIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THEINTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET. THIS INCLUDESLOCATIONS SUCH AS WINSTON-SALEM...LEXINGTON...HIGHPOINT...GREENSBORO...AND ROXBORO. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. KEEP IN MIND...THAT IF THE SNOW CHANGES OVER TOSLEET EARLIER THAT ANTICIPATED...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS.REGARDLESS...TRAVEL WILL BE TREACHEROUS TRAVEL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGHSUNDAY. EAST OF THE TRIAD AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDOR...PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SNOW OF SLEET WITHAN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THISINCLUDES LOCATIONS SUCH AS ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO...RTP...LOUISBURG...HENDERSON...AND ROANOKE RAPIDS. SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF ICEFROM FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION TO NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TRAVELCONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...THERE WILL ALSO BE NUMEROUSDOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDOR AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR...AFTER BRIEFLY STARTING OUT AS A SNOW AND SLEETMIXTURE...PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAINFRIDAY MORNING. THIS INCLUDES WADESBORO...ALBEMARLE....ROCKINGHAM... CARTHAGE...AND SANFORD. MOST OF THIS CORRIDOR WILL SEEA QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION...WITH POTENTIALCRIPPLING AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AS MUCH AS THREE-QUARTERS OF ANINCH IN SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS. AMOUNTS LIKE THIS TYPICALLY RESULT INWIDESPREAD DOWNED TREES...POWER OUTAGES THAT MAY LAST FOR DAYS...ANDPROLONGED IMPACTS TO TRAVEL CONDITIONS.ALL RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...ESPECIALLY THOSE WHO LIVEALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY AND 1 AND NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDORS...SHOULDBE PREPARED FOR THE FOLLOWING:TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING DUETO ICE-COVERED ROADS. PEOPLE SHOULD PREPARE TO SIMPLY STAY OFF THEROADS. IF YOU ATTEMPT TO DRIVE... IT'S LIKELY THAT YOU'LL END UPSLIDING OFF THE ROAD AND GETTING STUCK FOR A WHILE OR WORSE. WHILEIT'S GREAT TO KEEP EMERGENCY SUPPLIES IN YOUR CAR SUCH AS AFLASHLIGHT...FOOD...BLANKETS...AND WATER...THE BEST THING TO DOTONIGHT IS SIMPLY STAY OFF THE ROADS. TRAVEL IN THE HARDEST HITAREAS MAY BE IMPACTED FOR DAYS.WIDESPREAD DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES...ESPECIALLY IN THOSELOCATIONS HARDEST HIT BY ICE ACCUMULATION. IF YOU'RE IN ONE OF THEHARDEST HIT AREAS...YOU MAY BE WITHOUT POWER...AND WITHOUTHEAT...FOR SEVERAL DAYS.STRUCTURE DAMAGE...AND INJURIES OR WORSE...DUE TO FALLING TREES.IF YOU HAVE A LOT A TREES AROUND YOUR PROPERTY...BE READY TOQUICKLY MOVE INTO AN INTERIOR ROOM OF YOUR HOME OR OFFICE...GETDOWN LOW...AND SEEK SHELTER UNDER A STURDY PIECE OF FURNITURE SUCHA TABLE OR WORKBENCH...IF YOU BEGIN TO SEE OR HEAR TREES FALLINGAROUND YOUR PROPERTY. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE UNTIL THE ICE HASMELTED OFF THE TREES.AFTER THE POWER GOES OUT...BE SURE TO EXERCISE CAUTION AND SAFETYWHEN USING USING ALTERNATIVE HEATING AND COOKING SOURCES ANDGENERATORS. TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING...NEVER USE GASGRILLS OR ALTERNATIVE COOKING SOURCES INDOORS. MAKE SUREALTERNATIVE HEATING SOURCES ARE PROPERLY VENTILATED. WHEN USINGYOUR POWER GENERATOR...MAKE SURE IT IS LOCATED WELL AWAY FROM YOURHOME OR OFFICE...AND WELL AWAY FROM INDOOR AIR INTAKES. IF YOUVENTURE OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM DOWNED POWERLINES.FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ABOUT THE STORM...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RALEIGH. FOR WINTER STORM SAFETY TIPS AND INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT READYNC.ORG...COURTESY OF OUR PARTERS AT THE NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What a map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Please bold what you think we need to read when you post an AFD!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk There you go: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47661-jan-22-23-east-coast-storm-discussion/?p=3899764 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pack83 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Brad P said dew points were running well below forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 @WxBrad Tweet: Interesting he would say "worrisome". Little worrisome the dewpoints over Charlotte are about 10° colder than model guidance right now. Means more dynamic cooling. #cltwx If this is ZR then it's the kind that instantly binds to everything. Lower dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 and at 30.. the -6 line is now in NC. Beautiful. Reminds me of the last minute trends on the Feb '04 storm. Just kept getting colder and colder on each run. Thanks for the reporting! Amazing! Current conditions look good for the setup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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